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Elskidor
Nargothrond
Jan 12 2014, 7:43pm
Post #2 of 32
(1901 views)
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How big was the jump compared to last Sundays jump?
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Tolkien Elimination Game (Round 4: Men)
http://newboards.theonering.net/forum/gforum/perl/gforum.cgi?post=701444;sb=post_time;so=DESC;forum_view=forum_view_collapsed;;page=unread#unread
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Estel78
Dor-Lomin
Jan 12 2014, 7:59pm
Post #3 of 32
(1886 views)
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Much lower since last week were still some holidays
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Internationally it lost $9m on AUJ. This same week last year AUJ made $48m compared to $39m for DOS. The gap is now $43m ($609m AUJ vs $566m DOS).
In North America the results are pretty close ($14.2m AUJ vs $13.2m DOS). Again, those are weekly grosses, not weekend grosses.
(This post was edited by Estel78 on Jan 12 2014, 8:00pm)
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poochies
Ossiriand
Jan 12 2014, 8:01pm
Post #4 of 32
(1875 views)
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welll lookin pretty good, since AUJ didn't make its billion til March
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"The road goes ever on and on .."
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Estel78
Dor-Lomin
Jan 12 2014, 8:07pm
Post #5 of 32
(1836 views)
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If DOS would be in theaters till TABA, maybe then it would have hit $1b. ;) //
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Rickster
Nargothrond
Jan 12 2014, 8:08pm
Post #6 of 32
(1831 views)
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I hope he invests it in TABA
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patrickk
Nargothrond
Jan 12 2014, 8:15pm
Post #7 of 32
(1851 views)
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...that the Japane release date is later this year, so it is a much of muchness between the AUJ and DOS.
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Lieutenant of Dol Guldur
Mithlond
Jan 12 2014, 8:21pm
Post #8 of 32
(1864 views)
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Let's compare... as we always do ;-)
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There are still a few markets left. China (21st February) and Japan (28th February) come to my mind. If I remember the Chinese ($49,7 Mio.) and especially the Japanese ($19,2 Mio.) numbers for AUJ weren't that great but perhaps the dragon-factor helps in these countries this year? I'm not sure if a dragon really is something that is still very popular in China and Japan but I guess the DOS numbers will still be better than the AUJ ones in these two countries... it has to be if it wants to pass the $1 billion:
In mid-January AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY was at $890 Mio. worldwide and still grossed almost +$34 Mio. in the United States from mid January to mid April. And outside the United States AUJ grossed about another +$105 Mio. in the same time period to reach the final $1.017 Mio.
It's mid-January and THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG grossed $808 Mio. worldwide. That's not bad but it's not as good as AUJ did but better than lot's of people predicted. Box Office Mojo predicted a total domestic gross of $230 Mio. which the movie already passed ($242 Mio.). So DOS still needs +$200 Mio. to reach to $1 billion. It is still possible but I guess it will stop just before it... which is not bad! Not at all! I think for Warner, New Line and MGM (and of course Peter and all of them) it was already a financial success to split it into three movies.
And since the audience and critics reviews for DOS were better than the ones for AUJ I guess TABA will benefit from it.
"There is only one Lord of the Ring, only one who can bend it to his will. And he does not share power."
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legolin12
Lindon
Jan 12 2014, 8:21pm
Post #9 of 32
(1841 views)
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Yeah, DoS won't be released in Japan until February, so there should be at least a couple million coming from Japan.
DoS seems to be doing well :)
'"Answer the question, filth!"'
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Estel78
Dor-Lomin
Jan 12 2014, 8:23pm
Post #10 of 32
(1827 views)
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Even if we take Japan out of AUJ's gross the gap would still be over $25m* at the moment and it's probably only going to get bigger.
*internationally or as the US like to call it, overseas
(This post was edited by Estel78 on Jan 12 2014, 8:27pm)
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Estel78
Dor-Lomin
Jan 12 2014, 8:32pm
Post #11 of 32
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... if it makes like $130m from China and Japan, which - let's face it - won't happen, not anywhere close.
(This post was edited by Estel78 on Jan 12 2014, 8:33pm)
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Lieutenant of Dol Guldur
Mithlond
Jan 12 2014, 8:42pm
Post #12 of 32
(1802 views)
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There's still a chance to become the second most grossing movie from 2013
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That's why I predict that it will pass the $900 Mio. perhaps even the $950 Mio. but it won't pass the $1 billion. There's still a chance to become the second most grossing movie from 2013. Only Iron Man 3 passed the $1 billion and Despicable Me 2 is at $935 Mio. I think it is still possible to beat that... But personally I hope it's going to pass Catching Fire at least which was better than Hunger Games but still too over-hyped in my opinion.
"There is only one Lord of the Ring, only one who can bend it to his will. And he does not share power."
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Estel78
Dor-Lomin
Jan 12 2014, 8:54pm
Post #13 of 32
(1769 views)
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It's hitting $900m and if it breaks out in either Japan or China it might do more than that.
I think DOS will end up with $950m, +/- $10m. It will for sure pass Catching Fire.
(This post was edited by Estel78 on Jan 12 2014, 8:56pm)
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patrickk
Nargothrond
Jan 12 2014, 8:54pm
Post #14 of 32
(1794 views)
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I hope you are not suggesiting the rest of us..
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...will simply stop watching the movie. Note Australia is still only half AUJ total, so a few more tickets to be sold here, as it is just as popular if not more so, and still middle of the holiday season, and the very very hot weather will drive people to the movies this week, and the number of sessions per day across cinemas has held up (still HFR being shown which is a good sign). China's dates have not changed but Japan has, and it got $20m last year. This year as it has moved to a holiday period it might be up a bit, to say $30m (China's figures $50m last year, also could be up with dragon theme). Both Thailand and Malaysia are already up on last year so there may be a dragon effect (no figures for Indonesia [home of dragons] or Vietnam which also has a holiday coming up). All in all it might not close the gap all the way but it will be close to my mind. $980-$1b; but $1b is still possible.
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Estel78
Dor-Lomin
Jan 12 2014, 9:03pm
Post #15 of 32
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In AUS it's already on its 3rd weekend if i'm not mistaken
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The majority of its gross it has already made there.
DOS has not significantly outgrossed AUJ in Asia, if at all.
Even if it makes your $30m in Japan and let's be VERY optimistic and add $70m from China, it's not hitting $1b with those numbers.
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tsmith675
Mithlond
Jan 12 2014, 9:58pm
Post #16 of 32
(1726 views)
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You really don't want it to reach $1 billion do you? 
"This day we FIGHT!"
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Estel78
Dor-Lomin
Jan 12 2014, 10:01pm
Post #17 of 32
(1722 views)
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...when you know something and you are trying to tell it to others but they don't heed it?
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Elessar
Doriath
Jan 12 2014, 10:03pm
Post #18 of 32
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It does feel that way doesn't it.
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patrickk
Nargothrond
Jan 12 2014, 11:25pm
Post #20 of 32
(1631 views)
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..."the majority of Australia's gross is already made" when it is laready half of last years (after two weekends not three - this latest one woud not be in yet) and still in middle of holiday when people go to movies week days, and we have a very very hot week ahead acroso the country. Most of East Asia has not opened yet as holiday season is in late January (Tet for Vietnam, and Chinese New Year) and for those we have the figures for are up (Malasia and Thailand). So you seem to have a bleak view on viewing habits elsewhere - maybe a 'glass half empty' person.
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Subaruman
Nevrast
Jan 12 2014, 11:26pm
Post #21 of 32
(1654 views)
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I do trust Estel78 on these matters
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although I usually hope he ends up wrong.
$1 billion US is doubtful, but still possible. I'd give it a 25% chance at this point. These movies do tend to have some staying power, so DOS has that going for it.
"Here is a book very unsuitable for dramatic or semi-dramatic representation. If that is attempted, it needs more space, a lot of space."
- J.R.R. Tolkien, 1956
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Estel78
Dor-Lomin
Jan 12 2014, 11:59pm
Post #22 of 32
(1602 views)
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... but it seems i have to keep saying it, the sunday update includes all markets it's playing in and is up-to-date, that means Australia's 3rd weekend is already included in that figure. It probably stands at around $30m in Australia right now and it will probably add another $10m or so, so yes, the majority is behind us.
As for Asia, what countries do you refer to when saying "most of east Asia"? There may be some small countries it still has to open in but they amount to almost nothing. The markets that matter are China and Japan. In Malasia and Thailand DOS barely outgrossed AUJ. On the flipside, it is losing to AUJ in South Korea, Singapore (probably) and Hong Kong. Saying it's probably not going to significantly outgross AUJ in China and Japan is not a bleak view but a realistic view.
(This post was edited by Estel78 on Jan 13 2014, 12:07am)
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Elessar
Doriath
Jan 13 2014, 12:09am
Post #23 of 32
(1594 views)
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But it may still happen. Either way this probably ends up in the 950-975 million area. That's still a nice run and I would expect with the nice word of mouth this got TABA ends up higher.
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patrickk
Nargothrond
Jan 13 2014, 12:16am
Post #24 of 32
(1569 views)
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How you can get the third weekend Australia in, given the time difference when they put them up, it would have still been Sunday Australian time. (last year AUJ was $43m), and there are still two weeks of holidays to go, but weekend numbers matter for less in summer holidays anyway. Note Malaysia and Thailand are still running the move and it is already ahead (with Chinese holidays to come which affect Singapore and HK as well) and you have left out 80m people in Vietnam (hardly a small market), so you may be right (a littel under $1b), but 'tis more a pessimistic view of how holiday movie viewing works in East Asia and Australia.
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Estel78
Dor-Lomin
Jan 13 2014, 12:19am
Post #25 of 32
(1568 views)
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Heck, i hope i end up wrong, believe me.
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