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Nolane
Nevrast
Nov 7 2013, 6:50pm
Post #1 of 21
(1762 views)
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Box Office Mojo predicts only $230 million for The Desolation Of Smaug
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 2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Dec. 13): The first Hobbit earned a very strong $303 million last year, though anecdotal evidence suggests that many Lord of the Rings fans weren't thrilled with the movie. Historically, when an anticipated movie receives lukewarm audience reactions, its sequel suffers at the box office. Warner Bros. is working overtime to try to keep too many fans from bailing: the marketing material emphasizes Lord of the Rings favorites Gandalf and Legolas, and the prospect of finally seeing the dragon Smaug should also help. Forecast: $230 million
Seems very low to me. I think it will make $325-350 million in the U.S.
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tarasaurus
Nargothrond
Nov 7 2013, 6:54pm
Post #2 of 21
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they're definitely underestimating this movie. I think it's going to make loads. Who doesn't want to see a dragon on the big screen, and not just ANY dragon, but SMAUG?!
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Arannir
Doriath
Nov 7 2013, 7:02pm
Post #3 of 21
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... have them estimate it too low this time.
The group think mentality last year was laughable, cautious voices were shut down very often and very harshly, especially on some of the self proclaimed expert forums.
Then the whole "Floppit" stuff started when AUJ barely made the billion.
Boxoffice.com has a nice article about this inner life of prediction and self fullfilling prophecies.
“All good stories deserve embellishment."
Praise is subjective. And so is criticism.
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shadowdog
Nargothrond
Nov 7 2013, 7:31pm
Post #4 of 21
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Why is BOM STILL acting as if the only market for films is the US???????
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Escapist
Mithlond
Nov 7 2013, 7:40pm
Post #5 of 21
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I'd say that the predictions are extremely rough estimates
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last year's predictions show that Box Office Mojo systematically under and over estimates upcoming movies. I think it is just hard to predict these things with much accuracy! I wouldn't take any prediction overly seriously because they are all just guesses (as you can see by comparing the linked predictions to the recorded results).
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imin
Doriath
Nov 7 2013, 7:45pm
Post #6 of 21
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I would say it is going to be about the same as AUJ in both US and worldwide, probably making a little more overall.
'What's the matter with you?' - J.R.R. Tolkien
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patrickk
Nargothrond
Nov 7 2013, 8:29pm
Post #7 of 21
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Indeed a rather US bias for a golbal film
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As three quarters of the income for AUJ was outside the US then I think the figure for DOS would be around $1.2-1.5b; a tiny bit more than MOJ predicts.
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Eruvandi
Dor-Lomin
Nov 7 2013, 9:51pm
Post #8 of 21
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I don't get how they think they can predict these things in the first place
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So many movies that have been advertised as the best film of the year or an actor's best work to date have totally bombed and films that critics think no one will see do way better than they ever could have guessed. Point being, neither Box Office Mojo nor anyone else can really know how a film will do in the box office until it comes out. I just tend to ignore these attempts at prediction and say "Que sera sera": Whatever will be will be.
Personally I think DOS will do way better than that, but again there's still no way to know until the movie is out.
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Arannir
Doriath
Nov 7 2013, 10:07pm
Post #9 of 21
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Was a really bad year for the "experts" on boxoffice.com and Boxoffice Mojo.
“All good stories deserve embellishment."
Praise is subjective. And so is criticism.
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Misty Mountain Hop
Ossiriand
Nov 7 2013, 10:29pm
Post #10 of 21
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yeah, not sure about how they get predictions...
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How in the world do they know if my 8 friends are going or not?
Heck, I don't even know if they are...could be just me and two other guys, or ten.
There's no way of predicting that on a much larger scale.
Plus...I think it will make way more than that.
"Only, you've never done a hard day's work." - Merry
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Arannir
Doriath
Nov 7 2013, 10:32pm
Post #11 of 21
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They are part of an internet cycle...
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... that create buzz (or not) that lead to predicitions which lead back to their perception and lead to new predicitons.
To be fair, there are some there who really have a good sense of thinks and how they can measure and predict numbers (and there are some good indicators).
But many, many fall for the buzz that is often self-created.
“All good stories deserve embellishment."
Praise is subjective. And so is criticism.
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Avandel
Gondolin
Nov 8 2013, 12:00am
Post #12 of 21
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Underestimated - are they kidding?
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Personally not seeing (in the U.S. December film releases) anything that will cut across all generations and groups, for one thing - looks pretty thin for the holiday season. For another, who is speaking for LOTR fans and what they think? I'd say I'm an LOTR fan, thank you.
And can't convince me that the trailer in circulation isn't getting folks psyched for this movie, and general buzz. Finally there are the Hobbit-deprived (me) who will be doing the repeat viewings - think this movie in U.S. alone will clear the "magical" 300 million [is a blockbuster] hurdle, easily. Dwarves, elves, wizards, bowmen, spiders, a dragon - what more could folks want? To me it sounds like a movie studio's dream come true for the stockholders.
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Elskidor
Nargothrond
Nov 8 2013, 12:40am
Post #13 of 21
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If it is as good as most of us think it is going to be, then word to mouth is going to be bringing in more and more viewers. Everything I've heard about it and seen about it seems epic, and I'd be happy to see it topple a LoTR title even.
Heck, after watching most of the EE extras PJ and company deserve it. It surprised me hearing Peter Jackson say that AUJ was much harder to pull off than LoTR films, so if that's the case I'm hoping even more so that DoS smashes the box office.
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Ham_Sammy
Dor-Lomin
Nov 8 2013, 12:52am
Post #14 of 21
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There are a lot of analytics out there now that weren't there at the time of LOTR that can pretty accurately pick box office
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/google-box-office-prediction-tool-566330
But note that is 7 days out. A 30 plus day window is pretty far out yet to make a determination. That having been said the analytics are getting pretty darned accurate. My company uses them now to predict a wide variety of things re: Customers and other business concerns and they are pretty darned on target.
Still I would watch for Google's prediction. it can make a difference in the last week to two weeks as far as what marketing does or doesn't go into a film at the last minute.
Thank you for your questions, now go sod off and do something useful - Martin Freeman Twitter chat 3/1/13
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AinurOlorin
Gondolin
Nov 8 2013, 6:44am
Post #15 of 21
(594 views)
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I am pretty sure we will know at the end of opening weekend, or by the following one at latest.
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If ti strikes at a near or about An Unexpected, it will match or maybe exceeded (provided they don't offend everyone with any really distasteful deviations). An Unexpected did better than anticipated in the weeks AFTER its debut, which means lots of repeat viewers (who will do the same again unless something in the movie really upsets them {you know what that means for me!!! *Dol Guldur handling!*}), and also that there was good word of mouth prompting others to go see it, much more than the negative criticisms prompting people not to. There is also a good chance that people who waited for An Unexpected warily for a cable viewing, saw it by now and liked it and will come out where they did not for the first. I think 230 is extremely low balling considering that the Oz movie did better than that but did not match An Unexpected. I don't see Desolation doing more poorly than the Twilight movies. On the low end, I assume about 275 million, with around 350 million as the high peak end, domestically American. 2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Dec. 13): The first Hobbit earned a very strong $303 million last year, though anecdotal evidence suggests that many Lord of the Rings fans weren't thrilled with the movie. Historically, when an anticipated movie receives lukewarm audience reactions, its sequel suffers at the box office. Warner Bros. is working overtime to try to keep too many fans from bailing: the marketing material emphasizes Lord of the Rings favorites Gandalf and Legolas, and the prospect of finally seeing the dragon Smaug should also help. Forecast: $230 million Seems very low to me. I think it will make $325-350 million in the U.S.
"Hear me, hounds of Sauron, Gandalf is here! Fly if you value your foul skins, I will shrivel you from tail to snout if you step within this circle!"
"Do not be to eager to deal out death in judgement. Even the very wise cannot see all ends."
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Elskidor
Nargothrond
Nov 8 2013, 8:56am
Post #16 of 21
(550 views)
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The predictions are more like a rough estimate
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and a betting game. 2012 was so far off. Avengers was expected to do right about 400 in the box office, and he new Batman movie was going to beat it buy a nice chunk of change. Yeah...we all know how that turned out.
I like watch the predictions, but I put no faith in anyone's predictions because there is no scientific formula to predict how good or bad it will do. It works on elections to the point you can tell who is going to win as early as two months ahead if the race isn't tight, but not with movies....yet.
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Arannir
Doriath
Nov 8 2013, 10:50am
Post #17 of 21
(532 views)
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I heavily doubt, however, that especially BOM can really rely on them.
Well, it does not matter in the end to us personally. Thankfully, all the stuff is shot and numbers will not keep TABA to be released.
“All good stories deserve embellishment."
Praise is subjective. And so is criticism.
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Elessar
Doriath
Nov 8 2013, 1:59pm
Post #18 of 21
(510 views)
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are a wet blanket no matter what. I like their site to see numbers but they try to be a wet blanket on a lot of things. Even as The Hobbit earned a Billion dollars they still called the movie a failure. So I take what they say with a grain of salt.
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Ham_Sammy
Dor-Lomin
Nov 8 2013, 2:53pm
Post #19 of 21
(491 views)
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BOM is a lot of speculation. I used to subscribe to their newsletter but years ago dumped it as it just wasn't my cup of tea.
The numbers are alright and I like seeing the comparisons. I do like that part. but as far as their predictions and commentary. Meh.
I don't care anyway. It's going to make money and do well and even if it didn't, it's whether I like a movie or not personally. If it does well so much the better, and I do think DoS will do well. I just think nowadays we pay way too much attention to pundits, commentary and opinion of others and I'm not just talking about movies. All the way around we should be getting information and deciding for ourselves. I'm not interested in someone else telling me what to think. I have a brain and I can do that myself thank you very much!
Thank you for your questions, now go sod off and do something useful - Martin Freeman Twitter chat 3/1/13
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Arannir
Doriath
Nov 8 2013, 3:07pm
Post #20 of 21
(483 views)
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I sometimes wonder whether not even being on this forum has some influence on seeing the movies objectively. Don't get me wrong, it is a great forum and a lot of fun. But I think back in the days I didn't get so many information from movie sites I just enjoyed or disliked the movie based on my initial reaction, not all the prelude
“All good stories deserve embellishment."
Praise is subjective. And so is criticism.
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Nolane
Nevrast
Nov 8 2013, 5:39pm
Post #21 of 21
(467 views)
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We definitely know way too much before a movie comes out now. A lot of the magic has been taken away because of this. Of course, that doesn't stop me from reading all the posts here and watching every advance video, trailer, etc.
For the record, I think Desolation will do better than the first movie. It will do between $325 and $350 million in the states, and $800 million plus internationally for a worldwide total over $1.1 billion- up $100 million from the last one. I think the main reason for this will be that this movie will be better received than the first one by the critics and by the public. That will be worth the extra $100 million.
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