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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
Box Office projections for this weekend

Magpie
Immortal


Dec 21 2012, 6:25am

Post #1 of 14 (849 views)
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Box Office projections for this weekend Can't Post

from ew.com: http://insidemovies.ew.com/...jack-reacher-hobbit/

Quote

Box office preview: 'Jack Reacher' leads new releases, but can't compete with 'The Hobbit'

Whether or not the world ends tomorrow, things are looking pretty dire for the four new wide releases entering theaters this weekend: Jack Reacher, This is 40, The Guilt Trip, and Monsters Inc. 3D. Of course, December movies need not earn gargantuan grosses on their debut weekends to eventually end up with respectable totals. In 2010, Yogi Bear opened with a weak $16.4 million, but thanks to easy accessibility over the holiday season, when kids are out of school and adults off of work, the film eventually topped out at $100.2 million.

Studios will be hoping for similar endurance from this week’s crop of newcomers — none of them are tracking particularly well, and all of them will likely be crushed by the second weekend of The Hobbit. Here’s how I think the box office might shake out over the Friday-to-Sunday period:

1. The Hobbit – $37 million
The Warner Bros. release has earned $106.5 million in its first six days (for reference, The Return of the King had earned $137.6 million in the same period of time), and it will likely drop by about 55 percent this weekend to $37 million, which would lift its total to about $150 million after ten days.

2. Jack Reacher – $13 million

3. This is 40 – $12.5 million

4. Monsters Inc. 3D – $7 million

5. The Guilt Trip – $6.2 million



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Dwarvenfury
Lorien

Dec 21 2012, 6:57am

Post #2 of 14 (412 views)
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.. . [In reply to] Can't Post

is that good or bad? Unsure


demnation
Rohan


Dec 21 2012, 7:21am

Post #3 of 14 (387 views)
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It's hard to say [In reply to] Can't Post

 at this point where TH will eventually end up. Looking at the way the numbers are trending, I'd say the total will be slightly less than FOTR ($869m). Disappointing, but not a flop by any means. But like I said, it's hard to say for certain, and I'm no expert.

Use Well the Days

(This post was edited by demnation on Dec 21 2012, 7:24am)


dennis.p
The Shire

Dec 21 2012, 8:52am

Post #4 of 14 (366 views)
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its safe to say that AUJ will properly earn less than the LOTR films [In reply to] Can't Post

but we have to look at the big picture here. The total budget of all three films is like 5-600 million. factoring in maybe the added cost of the extended pickup shoots that are maybe required since their making three films.

So if the first film makes a total at the worldwide B.O. close to 1 Billion the next two will almost be pure profit. The film is a huge success. The LOTR took all by surprise and was practically a lightning in a bottle. That happens only once. So yeah The hobbit is a success and looking back at other franchises which have extended beyond the first trilogy i'd say we are in good shape, when it comes to the quality of the film and how well it will age ;)


Arannir
Valinor

Dec 21 2012, 11:04am

Post #5 of 14 (305 views)
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yes [In reply to] Can't Post

Yap, I think it is a good sign.

I know many people expected it to out-do the trilogy (especially because of inflation and 3D money) - but looking how other se- and prequels have basically killed off a whole franchise, robbing also the original version of their glamour, I think the Hobbit leaves the "mystery" in tact - since even harsh critics aknowledged the film to be okay for the fans and with only very few commenty BY fans that this one was underwhelming in a really bad way.

I think overall grosses may again grow with every movie... especially if critics may be a bit nicer for the next two (which could very well be the case, since the drama is growing... the only reason they could stay lukewarm would again be HFR and the split between movie 2 and 3). Also, word of mouth will get even stronger if the big battles and the Smaug (assuming that both will be breath-taking) get promoted and embrraced by the audience.


mcmojo
The Shire

Dec 21 2012, 2:16pm

Post #6 of 14 (276 views)
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from the other box office thread... [In reply to] Can't Post

I posted the following in the other thread:

I think it will gross around $45 million this weekend. I hope it does better than that, but I think it will take a nearly 50% drop. That will put it over $150 million domestically after two weekends.

As I stated earlier, I think it will actually do better business the week of December 24th-27th than it did this past week. It will have earned around $27.9 million this week (Monday - Thursday) and I think it will probably be closer to $35 million during next week. That, coupled with a solid 3rd weekend and the film will blow past $200 million in short order. The following week (December 31st - January 3rd) will be solid as well due to school still being out and people going to more movies during the week.

Internationally, I really don't know. It still has a few major markets to open - China being the potential big one. (Does anyone know when it opens in China, Russia, and Australia?) It's second weekend should be very healthy - seeing as how it has done very good business this week. You would think that if no other markets open, it should still be able to pull in at least $70 million, worst case scenario. I'm thinking it will do much better than that. I'm going to say closer to $100 million this weekend internationally. (I could be way off - I don't follow the international box office that closely.)


arithmancer
Grey Havens

Dec 21 2012, 7:11pm

Post #7 of 14 (147 views)
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release dates [In reply to] Can't Post

Heh, an online buddy was complaining about the Australia release. Boxing Day - 12/26/2012.

IMDB lists some of the dates:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0903624/releaseinfo

(but not China's).


DanielLB
Immortal


Dec 21 2012, 8:32pm

Post #8 of 14 (111 views)
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Not particularly surprised if it makes less [In reply to] Can't Post

People go to cinemas less and less each year.

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imin
Valinor


Dec 21 2012, 11:04pm

Post #9 of 14 (83 views)
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apart from in the UK where we have been going more and more since 1985 [In reply to] Can't Post

That was the year that less people went than any other year.

From 2007-2011 we were going more than the previous half of the decade. I think this year is the first to see a slight decrease, though other reports show a slight (1.4%) increase.

I thought we were all going less to the cinema but in the UK that just isnt the case.


(This post was edited by imin on Dec 21 2012, 11:06pm)


hobbit2012
The Shire

Dec 22 2012, 11:10am

Post #10 of 14 (51 views)
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The hobbit weekend numbers - collapsing [In reply to] Can't Post

From Deadline:

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (MGM/WB) Week 2 [Runs 4,100] PG13
Friday $10.5M (-73%), Weekend $31.5M, Cume $145.2M


http://www.deadline.com/...tows-this-is-40-4%2F

What the hell is happening to Hobbit? A 73% drop? This is crashing badlyUnsureUnsure Why isn't the WOM, holidays, etc boosting it?

As is stands, even reaching $250m domestic is in trouble. Oversees is no better - it appears France is dropping 50%, etc.Unsure

It looks like Hobbit will be a loss for WB. Assuming the budget for the films is $400m ($200m + $200), times the standard figure of 2 to allow for marketing, theatre cuts and so on, the Hobbit needs at least $800m worldwide to break even.

What are the odds the next 2 movies are cancelled? WB may decide it is better to cut and run now, than spend any more money for the required additional shoots and marketing the next movies and so on.

I'm really worried now. The Hobbit is in trouble. Who would have thought?UnsureUnsure


(This post was edited by hobbit2012 on Dec 22 2012, 11:12am)


imin
Valinor


Dec 22 2012, 11:33am

Post #11 of 14 (44 views)
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I thought people have estimated the costs of the three films to be around [In reply to] Can't Post

$500-550 million?

If that were the case then it would need to generate over a billion. Something i believe it will do - it certainly isnt going to be a loss over the 3 films.

I think the holidays will help it, it has only just become the holidays in many places, perhaps it will do better just after xmas?

As for WOM i think that will help it but its not as amazing as lotr so many people might think, oh i will just wait for the dvd - most seem to only take a couple of months now and they are released.

I also think the marketing by WB has let it down and critics reviews in big newspapers which most people hold in respect more than some random blogger so they carry more weight.

Saying all that i think it will do well overall, perhaps a slow burner?


DanielLB
Immortal


Dec 22 2012, 12:32pm

Post #12 of 14 (32 views)
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That is surprising! [In reply to] Can't Post

Not that I question you imin, but have you got a source?

I thought cinema numbers were falling through the floor.

Thanks.

Smile

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imin
Valinor


Dec 22 2012, 12:43pm

Post #13 of 14 (33 views)
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I do, just for you, lol. [In reply to] Can't Post

http://www.periscopepost.com/2010/01/uk-cinema-hits-a-seven-year-high-mark/

It is strange though, the cinema attendance went up and up from 1985 to 2003 and then they took a massive hit in 2004 but then increased every year thereafter but are not at the same level as 2003 as yet, so although they are lower they are increasing and are back to the level it was back in the 70's i think.

The height of cinema was when they had 1.6 billion - yes billion! in the UK. back in i cant remember right now, i think its late 40's.

The thing that makes it difficult is some figures calculate all of europes attendance rather than just UK

Oh and something that makes this seem like it might not continue is this years ticket sales are a bit behind last year, which was apparently a very good year.

I think its because in the UK we are accepting 3D films more than most.

Hope that helps - basically it isnt the end of cinema, not by a long shot!


DanielLB
Immortal


Dec 22 2012, 2:28pm

Post #14 of 14 (33 views)
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Thanks imin :-) [In reply to] Can't Post

No idea why I thought numbers were falling then! Seems to be doing quite well.

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