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Beren IV
Mithlond
Jun 24 2009, 7:26am
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More population discussion
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I've argued in the past about the plausibility of the rise of the Elven civilizations in Beleriand, and how much time would be required for this to happen given elven birth rates.
I've been running some very simple simulations using information in Laws and Customs Among the Eldar (LACE). According to LACE, elven population dynamics resembles human population dynamics, in which there is a segment of the population that is of child-rearing age, and after having a family of limited size, members of this population stop having children. The only real differences are (1) an elven generation takes at least 50 years and possibly longer; (2) Essentially no elven families are larger than three (see *), and (3) the post-reproductive elves don't eventually die off as a result of aging.
If we assume that most elven families have three children, then the population will approach an equilibrium in which 1/3 of the population will be of child-bearing or pre-childbearing age, and the population will double in slightly less than two generations.
If we assume that half of elven families have three children and the other half have only two, then the population will reach an equilibrium in which 1/5 are reproductive or pre-reproductive, and the doubling time will be roughly three generations.
I still think that the timeline for the Silmarillion has the elven populations of Beleriand rising awfully fast. They have about 200 years to grow to the point where they contain Morgoth during the Siege of Angband - four generations at the lower limit, and only two at the upper limit. Based on these figures, this is about enough time for an elven population to double or maybe triple, but for the Noldor to settle Beleriand, it seems to me that they need to increase their numbers by at least a factor of ten. Depending on the numbers we use in the simulation, this should take between about 500 and 2,000 years. 500 is semi-reasonable if the majority of the settling actually happened during the Siege of Angband and the initial wars with Morgoth were essentially without casualties (yeah, right). If you factor in a death rate of Noldorin elves as a result of warfare, it doesn't take all that much to make the population decline rather than increase (which describes most of the history of Middle Earth, but not those first few centuries in the First Age)!
*The Fëanor exception is a one-time affair, not something that is going to impact the growth or decline of the population as a whole.
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Curious
Gondolin
Jun 25 2009, 1:56pm
Post #2 of 18
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How many Noldor migrated from Valinor?//
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Sonic#
Nevrast
Jun 25 2009, 5:13pm
Post #3 of 18
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Forgive me, I'm not familiar with LACE, so if this is covered...
Would the elves of the first age have been inclined to have children to replace those they lost? I can think of arguments why they would and wouldn't (it's a very human thing to do, and maybe they wouldn't see their children as having died, but only passed), but if some could and did, then maybe they could still be within the margins of growth?
And yeah, as Curious asks, seeing your initial numbers would help a lot.  Cool stuff.
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Beren IV
Mithlond
Jun 25 2009, 10:49pm
Post #4 of 18
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I'm guessing no more than 100,000 or so,
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while their population in Beleriand at the height of their prosperity was probably close to a million if not more than that.
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Beren IV
Mithlond
Jun 25 2009, 10:54pm
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The population model that I was using was a deterministic one that could be set to an arbitrary scale. This is a realistic assumption if the population is large enough (and 1,000 is plenty).
My questions were "how many generations does it take the population to double", and "how many does it take to increase by a factor of ten". I also accounted for the fact that after each generation, elves that have reproduced already aren't reproducing anymore. Thus, I had two populations: a young, fertile population, and an older, sterile population, and the total numbers added them together.
This setup very quickly reaches an equilibrium in which the relative proportion of young versus old becomes constant over time. I then used this equilibrium ratio as the starting ratio for my population (also a realistic assumption, since the elves have a history before this).
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Disa
Lindon
Jun 26 2009, 6:21am
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What if math didn't come into the story? The only reason I have thought of is that maybe in the beginning elves just had more children, and in later years, not so many. Also, if elves can be compared in this respect to humans, humans who have a higher education tend not to breed as much as ones with a low education.
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Tolkien Forever
Mithlond
Jun 26 2009, 3:22pm
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There are (at least in your description) at least several variables that you have left out.....
First as already pointed out by Curious I believe, how many Noldor returned from Valinor?
Second, How many Noldor does it take to complete the Seige of Angband? How many Sindar already living in Beleriand are recruited to help in the Seige?
Speaking of Sindar, how many Sindar & Noldor marry & have offspring like in Nevrast, where the 'greater part' of Turgon's population is Sindar?
And finally, who decided the time frame for Elvish reproduction is set in stone?
Tolkien?
He should take a look at his own work for examples: Elrond & Celebrian, for example, don't have children until, in Elrond's case, he is 3,000+ years old. That sure messes up the formulas, huh?
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Beren IV
Mithlond
Jun 26 2009, 5:27pm
Post #8 of 18
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It's not set in stone, and neither is the timeline!
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As I responded to Curious, I would not expect the Noldorin refugees to number more than a hundred thousand, and I would expect the Noldorin population at the height of elven civilization in the First Age to be ten times that. It's not a question of how many elves are necessary to besiege Angand - it's a question of how many are needed to settle Beleriand, since an awful lot of Beleriand got settled by the Noldor.
The Sindar are, as you note, the major issue. I would tend to expect there to be quite a lot of Sindar, but obviously there was room for the Noldorin refugees, so Beleriand wasn't completely settled by Sindar.
Tolkien also made it evidently clear that there are exceptions to the Elven birth rates - but most of those exceptions, including the one you cite between Elrond and Celébrian, would make the rate of elven population growth get slower, not faster...
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Tolkien Forever
Mithlond
Jun 26 2009, 5:42pm
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This one......
How many Elves could Feanor fit upon the ships he stole from the Teleri? Say there was about 100,000 Noldor leaving Valinor.
About 30 to 40 thousand must've been in Feanor's contingent. That's a heck of a lot of boats.
And even moreso -this one always drove me crazy - How could all the Dunedain that settled Arnor & Gondor fit in NINE ships?
Are we to believe those 9 ships are the size of the Titanic or a modern day aircraft carrier?
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Beren IV
Mithlond
Jun 26 2009, 5:54pm
Post #10 of 18
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I think that the number of Noldor in Beleriand is dominated by the hosts that crossed over the Helcaraxë and were not in Fëanor's fleet.
As for the Dúnedain in Arnor and Gondor, that's less of a problem (although not much less), because it is implied that most of the population of Arnor and Gondor are not Dúnedain but lesser Men who were already there when the Dúnedain arrived. Moreover, Númenor was a colonial empire, so there were a probably a fair number of Dúnedain in Middle Earth already, moreso than those that Elendil saved, actually.
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Curious
Gondolin
Jun 26 2009, 6:12pm
Post #11 of 18
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Gondor, in particular, was settled by Dunedain long before
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the fall of Numenor. Arnor is more of an issue, but some of those Dunedain still could have been there before Elendil arrived, or migrated there from Gondor, and the numbers of Dunedain in Arnor were never huge.
It's really only Elendil and his immediate household who waited until the last possible minute to leave Numenor.
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Tolkien Forever
Mithlond
Jun 26 2009, 11:55pm
Post #12 of 18
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First on the division of the Noldrin host, The Simarillion says that the 'greater host' went with Fingolfin when they set forth from Tuna upon Turion.
From that point, a part of Finarfin's following repents & returns, which would lower Fingolfin's total.
Then, there's the Kinslaying, which would likely take a larger toll on Feanor's folk since that are engaged in battle longer & more fully than Fingolfin's folk who come up later & most likely in part.
Then there's the loss of ships in the sea that rises in wrath from the prayers of the Teleri to Osse, drowning more of Feanor's folk......
Finally, you have some of Fingolfin's folk dying in the crossing of the Grinding Ice.
So, I would venture an estimate that Feanor's folk, which were less to begin with do indeed suffer more losses on the way than Fingolfin's.
So, say the split was 60-40 in favor of Fingolfin & Finarfin to begin with, I would bet it was close to 65/70% by the time they reach Middle-earth.
What do you think?
Now, on to the Dunedain returning after the Alkabeth......
Where is it 'implied' that that most of the population of Arnor & Gondor were lesser men & not Dunedain at the beginning?
I don't ever recall reading that.......
And, for Curious:
It was only Elendil & his immediate family who were in those nine ships?
That's one heck of a large family. 
I don't believe that is the way Tolkien presents the story at all......
It says 'Two ships for Anarion, three for Isildur, four for Elendil'. and that 'Elendil did as his father had bidden, and his ships lay off the east coast of the land; and the Faithful put aboard their wives and children and their heirlooms and great store of goods.'
Note: 'The Faithful put aboard their wives and children', not 'Elendil and his sons put aboard their wives and children'.
Also 'Elendil did as his father had bidden': "But let it not be seen that you intend to take many men or he (Ar-Pharazon) will be troubled, because of the war he now plots."
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Curious
Gondolin
Jun 27 2009, 12:56am
Post #13 of 18
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I didn't say immediate family.
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I said immediate household. A royal household, including servants and retainers and their families, could be quite large, and Anarion and Isildur both had royal households of their own.
But I'm quite sure that the Faithful had begun emigrating to Middle-earth long before the final wave. Even though the royal households on the nine ships are large, I got the impression that they were only a small percentage of the Faithful.
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Tolkien Forever
Mithlond
Jun 27 2009, 1:06am
Post #14 of 18
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There's evidence to back up my view but nothing to back up your theory, so I stand by my post.
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Tolkien Forever
Mithlond
Jun 27 2009, 1:29am
Post #15 of 18
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Rephrase, 'your theory'....
I agree with you that the Faithful were migrating to Middle-earth for a while before the Alkabeth.
I see no evidence, however that the nine ships were just Elendil & his son's households & in fact the text bears out the opposite:
'Therefore Amandil withdrew to Romenna, and all he trusted still to be faithful he summoned to come thither in secret.'
I've now produced three quotes to back me up....
Can you show me even one to back up your theory?
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Curious
Gondolin
Jun 27 2009, 1:50am
Post #16 of 18
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You've conceded my point, now I'll concede yours.
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My point was that the Faithful were migrating to Middle-earth for a while before the Alkabeth, and that the nine ships only contained a small percentage of the total. That answered your original question about how Middle-earth could be populated by nine ships.
Now as to whether there were people on those ships who were not members of the Houses of Elendil and his sons, i.e. not retainers, servants, or other people associated with Elendil and his sons, I'll gladly concede that I was just talking off the top of my head, and I'm probably not correct. Okay?
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Beren IV
Mithlond
Jun 27 2009, 3:08am
Post #17 of 18
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that the numbers were, if anything, even more skewed: there is a limit to how many Swan Ships there could have been, and even with the massive death toll across the Helcaraxë, the houses of Fingolfin and Fingon must have greatly outnumbered that of Fëanor.
My comment on Gondor stems from dialog in LotR, and I can't recall the passages entirely. However, I seem to remember that Beregond implies that only Minas Tirith and Dol Amroth are really Dúnedain cities, and that there are a lot of lesser Men that live elsewhere in Gondor. Denethor's comment about mean folk ruling the hills also supports this. As for Arnor, there are the Brielanders, who, it is claimed in the narration, were there before the kings sailed out of the west, and were there still. The Brielanders aren't very numerous, but I think that may be a result from changing conditions (I want to say "climate", but that may be a little too scientific!).
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Tolkien Forever
Mithlond
Jun 27 2009, 3:32am
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You're right about the 'fisherfolk about Lamedon' or Lebenin (wherever) that Bergond talks about......
And the Breelanders of course.
Not to mention the King of the Dead and his followers who never showed up, but were most likely just a portion of the population
So, that could be absolutely correct.
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ACK!! math......
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