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Computer death - yay (and demographics)

Beren IV
Mithlond


Apr 27 2009, 6:06am

Post #1 of 11 (726 views)
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Computer death - yay (and demographics) Can't Post

It's been several months, on account of me being busy with getting my degree and then, recently, my computer dying.

I'm going to pull my usual routine and ask a nerd-brained biological question of the board, thinking in particular about life cycles and demographics. And oh yeah, trying to poke holes in prevailing "theories".

The coming of age for men in many of the races of Tolkien's world seems to be around thirty, including hobbits, Edain (if we are to accept the timeline some have made for the Sil), and Dunedain (my special character keys aren't working). All of these races seem to have typical lifespans of at least a century if not longer. Now, medieval humans typically saw adulthood coming around twenty, even in the late teens. For those that survived to adulthood, the mean lifespan for medieval humans was about sixty. This was for agrarian peasants, and varied from culture to culture; the Bible implies that the Hebrews' life expectancy was around seventy instead of sixty, but getting married in one's late teens was still the norm, especially among women. Interestingly, one apparent exception to Tolkien's thirty-is-an-adult demographic is the Rohirrim: Eowyn is twenty-three when she marries Faramir, quite a bit older than one would expect a historical human princess to be when getting married, but still quite a ways shy of thirty. The Rohirrim of course are among the closest beings to real humans in the story that we get to meet closely - the only better match is probably the Breelanders. (The Easterlings and Haradrim we never encounter except on the battlefield, and that hardly tells us anything about their lives off of the battlefield)

1. To what extent did Tolkien intend for this age-inflation to represent actual differences between his imaginary races from real humans as they might have otherwise lived in this world, or was he painting a picture of what he imagined (idealized) humans to be like?

2. Although Eowyn is one of a very few Rohirrim whose age at marriage we know, she is also one of fairly few mortal women whose age at marriage we know. It has been customary in many cultures for women to marry younger than men. Is Eowyn's earlier marriage age a reflection of her race, or her sex?

3. We know almost nothing about Dwarven aging demographics except for their lifespans, but what do you imagine Dwarven ages of adulthood, typical marriage ages, etc. to be?


The only real demographic picture of Elvenkind we have is in Laws and Customs Among the Eldar (LACE), which was written late in Tolkien's life and may or may not be motivated by the same inspirations that drove Tolkien in his earlier years. Certainly we know that Tolkien's conception, and use of words, in his legendarium changed over time; consider for example the fact that Tolkien does not hesitate to use the word "magic" to describe Elven arts and powers in The Book of Lost Tales and in The Hobbit, and how this changes over the evolution of his imaginary world concept. Nonetheless, LACE paints a strange and confusing picture of what Elven growth and physiology is like. For example, he says that age at adulthood in Elven societies is frequently placed at fifty, but the explanation of why is murky.

4. How believable is the picture of Elven demographics presented in LACE? How likely are the Elven laws and customs (mostly customs) to vary from one Elven culture to another?

5. Assuming that the age at adulthood for Elves is fifty, how quickly after that do Elves get married and have their families? At what age do their minds move onto things other than children?


Now, to come to the next question, population dynamics. In order for a population to survive, an average female has to have more than two children, in order to make up for various causes of death, premature and otherwise. In Dwarves of course, this means more than three children, since females make up for only a third of the population, rather than half as is the case for most of the other races. For something like elvenkind that is immortal, this remains true, especially if the older generation do not continue to have children as they age, as LACE implies. After all, accidents happen, even in a world without war and other hazards. Yet, according to LACE again, three is a large number of children for an Elven family, and three is just one larger than the unsustainable two.

6. Imagine if Melkor had not gone evil, and as such there were no orcs or balrogs or dragons in Arda. Would Aule's Dwarves still become extinct, simply because the rate at which they have children does not keep up with their mortality?

7. How many children does the typcial Elven family have? Is it three? Or are the Elves, too, doomed to extinction, purely as a result of the occasional accidental death?

8. If the Elves do only have one or two children per typical family, how is it that they grew in numbers so astonishingly from Cuivenien up through the Siege of Angband?

9. One of the things that Men supposedly do not fail in, at least according to Legolas and Gimli, is their seed. Why, then, do the royal houses of Men fail in their seed not infrequently?


And last,

10. What does the life cycle of Orcs look like?

The paleobotanist is back!


Dreamdeer
Doriath


Apr 27 2009, 4:10pm

Post #2 of 11 (613 views)
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My thoughts [In reply to] Can't Post

1. To what extent did Tolkien intend for this age-inflation to represent actual differences between his imaginary races from real humans as they might have otherwise lived in this world, or was he painting a picture of what he imagined (idealized) humans to be like?


It makes sense to me that those who age later and live longer have longer childhoods.

2. Although Eowyn is one of a very few Rohirrim whose age at marriage we know, she is also one of fairly few mortal women whose age at marriage we know. It has been customary in many cultures for women to marry younger than men. Is Eowyn's earlier marriage age a reflection of her race, or her sex?


I think it's her race. Since she will age sooner (presumably entering menopause sooner) she needs to marry younger. In fact, considering the medieval propensity for teen marriage (matching short lifespans) she's probably marrying late, due to her nursemaid duties sidelining her from courtship.

3. We know almost nothing about Dwarven aging demographics except for their lifespans, but what do you imagine Dwarven ages of adulthood, typical marriage ages, etc. to be?

I expect that they would come of age and marry even later than Dunadain or hobbits. At age 32, remember, the dwarves regarded Dain Ironfoot as a "stripling".

4. How believable is the picture of Elven demographics presented in LACE? How likely are the Elven laws and customs (mostly customs) to vary from one Elven culture to another?


I would have expected an even older age of maturity.


5. Assuming that the age at adulthood for Elves is fifty, how quickly after that do Elves get married and have their families? At what age do their minds move onto things other than children?


I don't imagine that elves do anything quickly. I expect that they don't have a biological clock telling them "Marry NOWWWW!" at least not for the first thousand years or so. Elrond has quite a gap between his coming of age and his "time of children".

6. Imagine if Melkor had not gone evil, and as such there were no orcs or balrogs or dragons in Arda. Would Aule's Dwarves still become extinct, simply because the rate at which they have children does not keep up with their mortality?


Inevitably. Aule flubbed their design.

7. How many children does the typcial Elven family have? Is it three? Or are the Elves, too, doomed to extinction, purely as a result of the occasional accidental death?


I suppose it depends on which generation of elves you're talking about. The earliest records seemed to show elves having large families, with an occasional exception. Later they dwindled. One reason might be the reincarnation factor. They aren't really producing any new elves at all by the third age, just recycling the old ones who happened to have suffered a momentary setback in their immortality. And since the Noldor rebels, by and large, either get held back in the Halls of Mandos indefinitely, or reincarnate back home, the descendants of the Noldor in Middle-Earth would have very few children indeed. Elrond Halfelven doesn't entirely count, being half-human; I'd hazard a guess that Arwen, Elladan, and Elrohir are all new souls, even if Arwen seems at first glance to be a knock-off.

Even more interesting to me is the social dynamics of people guaranteed reincarnation with gradually returning memories. Do they disregard any need for safety regulations? (The incidence, here and there, of bridges without rails makes me wonder.) Do they like extreme sports? Do the more reckless souls occasionally do foolish things like jump off of cliffs just to see what it feels like to fly?

8. If the Elves do only have one or two children per typical family, how is it that they grew in numbers so astonishingly from Cuivenien up through the Siege of Angband?


Back in those days they were still producing brand-new elves and having large families.

9. One of the things that Men supposedly do not fail in, at least according to Legolas and Gimli, is their seed. Why, then, do the royal houses of Men fail in their seed not infrequently?

Because they're decadent. Tolkien repeatedly connects infertility to taking a wrong societal turn.

10. What does the life cycle of Orcs look like?

If, as I do, you accept Tolkien's earliest and most elegant premise that Morgoth bred orcs from elves, then they're quasi-immortal. However, their incredibly hard, wicked, and stupid lifestyle would insure a high turnover, which necessitates a vigorous breeding-program. They probably mate as soon as they reach sexual viability, possibly even before full maturity. They would not, however, mate for life. Morgoth, and later Sauron, would find family life counterproductive for their purposes, for the following reasons
  1. Dark lords want to be able to move their pawns freely on the board, without domestic entanglements in the way.
  2. Bonds of love create persons to defend and die for other than Sauron or Morgoth, which could sow seeds of rebellion should a dark lord need to make a strategic move threatening to an orc's family.
  3. Not only do families divide loyalties, but they also form natural cells of potential resistence in their very structure.
  4. A stable upbringing in a loving family would undermine the training of sociopaths. Non-sociopaths might balk at orders.
  5. Non-sociopaths might also form strong societal bonds that can organize orcs into rebellions not as easily broken up as those arranged between rebels that don't really like each other.


Therefore I imagine that dark lords would rotate breeding-matches carefully to prevent attachments, and raise the children harshly in group homes, separated from their natural mothers at birth and fed milk from bottles. Masterless orcs, in between dark lords, would have no cultural context upon which to create marriages, though they might form temporary attachments and develop some rudiments of affection.

Shagrat and Gorbag, for instance, seemed capable of a shallow sort of friendship. and waxed nostalgic about a past age without bosses as though they had personally experienced it, back in the good old days. However, they had to conceal their friendship from the troops under them, with a public show of rivalry and insults, which indicates that they engaged in something taboo or weird by the standards of the majority. Generals tend to be older than their troops; I would hazard that these troops consisted of younger orcs raised wholly Sauron's way.

Life is beautiful and dangerous! Beware! Enjoy!

(This post was edited by Dreamdeer on Apr 27 2009, 4:11pm)


sevilodorf
Dor-Lomin


Apr 29 2009, 12:34am

Post #3 of 11 (564 views)
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Totally UUT but.... [In reply to] Can't Post

10. What does the life cycle of Orcs look like?


My fancy is to believe that the creation of Orcs is due to genetic manipulation. Morgoth using Elves as his base, but Sauron and Saruman breeding with Men and anything else they happened to be able to catch. (Think some very weird SciFi movie creatures as the rejects from these crossings.) Might also explain the fell beasts.

Those Orcs resulting from Morgoth's manipulations would be immortal, though as the ages pass their numbers would be greatly reduced. Life expectancy for cannon fodder is seldom lengthy. Those Orcs however would not necessarily be able to pass on their immortality.... or at least not in matings with lesser Orcs.

Those produced by Sauron and Saruman would be mortal, with varying life spans dependent upon their breeding.

Genetic manipulations would extend to tweaking the code to result in multiple births and a significantly higher ratio of male to female (even more lopsided than the Dwarves). Offspring would be raised in groups.... no families... with uber Spartan mentality.

The uneven gender ratio would require the use of female breeders. (fodder for bad fanfic I suppose.)

But as I said.... totally UUT speculations

Fourth Age Adventures at the Inn of the Burping Troll http://burpingtroll.com





Beren IV
Mithlond


May 3 2009, 9:54pm

Post #4 of 11 (524 views)
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The problem with immortality [In reply to] Can't Post


Quote
Even more interesting to me is the social dynamics of people guaranteed reincarnation with gradually returning memories. Do they disregard any need for safety regulations? (The incidence, here and there, of bridges without rails makes me wonder.) Do they like extreme sports? Do the more reckless souls occasionally do foolish things like jump off of cliffs just to see what it feels like to fly?


You just summed up the problem that I have with immortal souls right there. If the real you are truly immortal, then you should have no fear of death, and no reason to prevent others from dying either. Morality goes out the window, because the things that would be evil if people were destructible become irrelevant.


The paleobotanist is back!


Dreamdeer
Doriath


May 4 2009, 12:24am

Post #5 of 11 (525 views)
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Hmmmm.... [In reply to] Can't Post

Good point about morality. I had simply thought about the elves' attitudes towards their own bodies. But Mandos might be the literary safety net on that. They might not face true death, but they do face judgment.

On the other hand, how much judgment might they face if they've done no real harm? Feanor becomes less villainous in the Kinslaying, because from the full-memory reincarnation perspective, he simply threw those Teleri infuriatingly off-schedule in their various plans.

Even so, he remains culpable in the matter of dragging his sons into a vow that cost them their souls even more than their lives, unless he can plead insanity, in which case there still remains the issue of whether factors beyond his control drove him mad, or whether he drove himself mad through holding on inordinately to pride.

Then there's the matter of the halfelven children abandoned to the woods to perish of starvation and/or the elements. The egregious suffering caused would surely outweigh the fact that the children get another chance to get born. Might they be born with PTSD? And what happens to halfelven children too young to make a decision as to their mortality? I would hope that they'd automatically get reincarnated to have another go at making up their minds. But then there's the born-traumatized factor. What if the Powers that Be deem that they're too messed up to make a coherent decision?

In any case, if they do reincarnate, sooner or later they would come of an age to be able to testify against their tormentors. So one sociological effect would be that you won't see any criminal elves killing off the witnesses--you never know when they'll surface again!

More to the point for us human beings, does immortality make it more difficult for elves to empathize with mortals? Or does it make them pity us more? Or does it vary from elf to elf, depending upon character?

Life is beautiful and dangerous! Beware! Enjoy!


Beren IV
Mithlond


May 4 2009, 11:16pm

Post #6 of 11 (530 views)
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This is why I [In reply to] Can't Post

always envision physical death, even for elves, to be something more traumatic than just separation from one's body. There is a part of one's self that dies and cannot grow back, and by the time the elf reincarnates, what replaces it is something new, making him a different person than his spiritual ancestor.

The problem still exists with humans even if elves are ignored. We'll all see each-other again in heaven, won't we? What's the point of not killing people (or, for that matter, what's the point for evil beings to kill people)?

The paleobotanist is back!


Dreamdeer
Doriath


May 5 2009, 5:45am

Post #7 of 11 (538 views)
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The harm in killing [In reply to] Can't Post

I see the harm in killing someone with an immortal soul to be the interruption or prevention of whatever that person was supposed to do with his life.

Life is beautiful and dangerous! Beware! Enjoy!


Beren IV
Mithlond


May 6 2009, 6:56am

Post #8 of 11 (553 views)
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But what does that matter to an omnipotent deity [In reply to] Can't Post

who can cause whatever was supposed to happen to happen anyway?

Like I say, the concept of indestructible souls that are the primary essence of a person is problematic. Now, if people represent the union of body and soul, the whole of which is greater than the sum of its parts, then the problem goes away, because although part of the person (the soul) survives, the other part (the body) doesn't. This is particularly poignant if the Creator has left our universe for its inhabitants to make what they will of it, without having an explicit plan of destiny for how it is all supposed to work.

But most of the literary and cinematic depictions of Heaven paint it as this ideal paradise where the soul basically contains all of the essential elements of the original person, including having a new, living body. This kills the story for what's going on down on Earth, however, because suddenly there's no risk involved (except for temptation, of course, but we don't care whether the good honest cop catches the murderer in the end or not).

Tolkien of course doesn't tell us explicitly what Heaven for his legendarium is like, but at least some of his writings make the implication pretty clear.

The paleobotanist is back!


Dreamdeer
Doriath


May 6 2009, 2:37pm

Post #9 of 11 (506 views)
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Can God make a rock... [In reply to] Can't Post

...heavier than He can lift? Yes, and the name of the rock is free will. When one presumes a deity who has sworn, without exception, to honor free will, this then introduces a variable that makes the story interesting again. Omnipotence then has a boundary. If Bilbo had not spared Gollum, then the Ring would not have been destroyed, because Eru would not have forcibly stayed Bilbo's hand. If the young Denethor had murdered "Thorongil", Aragorn would never have fulfilled the tasks appointed to him, and MIddle Earth history would have gone into a different direction.

The will of Eru will not have failed so long as "...anything can still flower or grow fruit..." In other words, one dandelion breaking through the pavement of Mordor suffices as a victory--which is small consolation to us sentient beings! We have a stake in an absence of murder.

Life is beautiful and dangerous! Beware! Enjoy!


Beren IV
Mithlond


May 6 2009, 6:46pm

Post #10 of 11 (510 views)
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Free will works in LotR only if [In reply to] Can't Post

you don't factor in the Last Battle (or, if the outcome of the Last Battle is itself dependent on free will).

Still, there isn't so much to fight for if good people are going to go to heaven anyway.

The paleobotanist is back!


Dreamdeer
Doriath


May 7 2009, 2:23am

Post #11 of 11 (626 views)
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It's the journey [In reply to] Can't Post

The journey matters more than the end. Middle Earth--or any earth--is a work of art, not to be despised just because something better comes after. If Aragorn died as a good young man, yes, he would go to heaven, but he would never have become King, would never have married Arwen, would never have inspired Bilbo's poem, never have sired Eldarion or the Telcontar line. The Great Music would play on, but less rich, shy of key notes, missing layers of harmony and themes within the greater orchestration. That is a real loss!

Life is beautiful and dangerous! Beware! Enjoy!

 
 

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