... and his [Sauron's] rule was of benefit to all men in their needs of the body; for he made them rich, whoso would serve him. ['The Drowning of Anadûnê', HoMe IX]

He [Sauron] had gone the way of all tyrants: beginning well, at least on the level that while desiring to order all things according to his own wisdom he still at first considered the [economic] well-being of the other inhabitants of the Earth. [Letter 183]

And the Dúnedain came at times to the shores of the Great Lands, and they took pity on the forsaken world of Middle-earth; and the lords of Númenor set foot again upon the western shores in the Dark Years of Men, and none yet dared to withstand them. For most of the Men of that age that sat under the Shadow were now grown weak and fearful. And coming among them the Númenóreans taught them many things. Corn and wine they brought, and they instructed Men in the sowing of seed and the grinding of grain, in the hewing of wood and the shaping of stone, and in the ordering of their life, such as it might be in the lands of swift death and little bliss.

... in origin kin of the Folk of Bëor, though some were kin of the Folk of Hador. They dwelt about Lake Evendim, in the North Downs and the Weather Hills, and in the lands between as far as the Brandywine... ('Of Dwarves and Men')

It appears that they were in origin Men of the same stock as the Peoples of Bëor and Hador who had not crossed the Blue Mountains into Beleriand during the First Age. (Note 3, 'Aldarion & Erendis')

attempted to gain the mastery of Eriador [after his destruction of Eregion] .. he ravaged the lands, slaying or drawing off all the small groups of Men and hunting the remaining Elves...

Thanks for the reply. Númenórean colonisation is something I defo find interesting. Some of your reply I still couldn't follow. Especially the characterisation of the Númenóreans leaving Sauron alone after the War of the Elves and Sauron, and prior to Ar-Pharazôn military humbling of Sauron. As recounted in the Akallabêth, Sauron is certainly at bay for many years after the devastating defeat he suffered at the end of the War of the Elves and Sauron. However, "when the Úlairi arose [c. II.2251]... he [Sauron] began to assail the strong places of the Númenóreans upon the shores of the sea." In that text and in 'Of the Rings of Power and the Third Age', there is also reference to Númenóreans continuing to aid Gil-galad in his struggle with Sauron.

I guess this material is what you were referring to when you spoke of "some skirmishes and minor clashes". I'd agree that they don't seem like the two huge set-piece wars that bookend Númenórean intervention in Middle-earth. They do sound a bit like centuries of hostilities though, where by choice or because they were under attack, the Númenóreans were hardly "leaving Sauron alone". And Sauron actually attacking the Númenóreans doesn't come across as Sauron trying to subtly influence them to leave him alone either!

Am also not convinced by this assertion:

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You're relying on an assumption that a range of colonial settlements founded across different locations are all growing at a uniformly slow rate in order to explain the lack of three 'great lords', in order to prove that Ciryatan is the Witch-king.

On this one:

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As flagged elsewhere in the thread, Tolkien directly explains how the King's Men faction arose. At length, in a Melian Dialogue style format. And without reference or recourse to a Ring of Power. You mention psychological condition: the debate between the Messengers of Manwë and the Númenóreans is a genuinely interesting study of the psychology of the Númenóreans of that era. The king, and the Númenóreans by extension, are indeed at the top. But it's still not enough for them and therein is the seed of their fall. The King's Men are the first generation to stumble in this regard.

Thanks for the link to the article - genuinely fascinating stuff! My personal view is that the author mistakes Tolkien's general reference to 'hints' and 'allusions' in Letter 156 as a cypher for a treasure map leading to specific secrets, which the especially attentive (ie. the author) can uncover. And one such secret is that Ciryatan was the Witch-king. The author also makes a date discrepancy do a lot of heavy lifting in order to conclude that Ciryatan lived for 617 years. Letter 156 also happens to be another good source for Tolkien's conceptualisation of the Fall of the Númenóreans, without reference to any Rings of Power.

The assertion that there were powerful Númenórean colonies very early in the timeline requires inventing a new location that isn't Umbar or Pelargir or Vinyalondë and imagining that it somehow got really powerful and important really fast without a mention of its importance anywhere in the source material.

Thus it came to pass in that time that the Númenóreans first made great settlements upon the west shores of the ancient lands; for their own land seemed to them shrunken, and they had no rest or content therein, and they desired now wealth and dominion in Middle-earth, since the West was denied.

I think it pays to not stop at the first plausible explanation. That first plausible explanation may not be the whole truth, end of story, especially when the story was still in the process of being developed by Tolkien.

Maybe it was the Ring that called to the Wraith-lord, and for a moment he was troubled, sensing some other power within his valley.

Maybe the elven-hoods deifed his unseen eyes, and the mind of his small enemy, being strengthened, had turned aside his thought. But he was in haste. Already the hour had struck, and at his great Master's bidding he must march with war into the West.

'I know what you seek, though you do not name it. I have it not, as surely its servants perceive without telling; for if I had it, then you would bow before me and call me Lord.'

When they [the Nazgûl] came back to the Wold September had come; and there they met messengers from Barad-dûr conveying threats from their Master that filled even the Morgul-lord with dismay.

The fascinating story of 'Tal-Elmar' (HoMe XII) provides another such glimpse of 'pax Sauronica'. This tale depicts life as arguably less developed and more brutal for the humans living under Sauron's rule, although agriculture is referred to. I'm flitting between a few different sources and periods, which is usually a risky business, but thematically, there's some consistency, I reckon.

These are the most likely candidates for who were the beneficiaries of early Númenórean patronage and largesse. Although no "towns and walls of stone" etc, as per Sauron's sponsorship, are mentioned, agriculture and some degree of settlement formation - "they instructed Men in the sowing of seed and the grinding of grain, in the hewing of wood and the shaping of stone, and in the ordering of their life" - is implied.

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No such assertion made and no invention required! I posit merely that those that did exist are plausible candidates to have housed the three "great lords of Númenórean descent" that were suborned by Sauron. As quoted by yourself, the entry for c. II.1800 in the 'Tale of Years' refers to "dominions on the coast" as being established. Just because they're not named doesn't mean I've invented their existence. The feigned annalist has done the work for the reader.

The population pressure point is an interesting one and not something I've thought about very much. Many of the colonisation drivers appear to be psychological or about resources or political, eg. the Faithful emigrating to escape persecution. I'm familiar with the following passage ('Akallabêth'):

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This seems to me as more of a psychological driver for colonisation, where something has been denied (Paradise) and restless displacement activity ensues. I'm aware that Tolkien wrote that after the first millennium of the Second Age, the population of Númenor "greatly increased", rising from around two million to fifteen million by the time of the Akallabêth, and that Middle-earth was described as an "outlet" in this regard ('Of the Land and Beasts of Númenor', NoMe). The date range for this growth spurt is so vast (2,000+ years), that I would only be speculating on links between Númenórean demography and specific colonial ventures. At any rate, slightly less speculatively, the Númenóreans throwing themselves into displacement activity, wanting more 'stuff', and population growth of some description taking place need not be mutually exclusive drivers.

I've not consciously based any of my arguments around demographic change. My main point is that there is plenty of textual evidence that there were Númenóreans settling in Middle-earth in a suitable timeframe. Building on that, it's then what I reckon to be a relatively mild leap to the assessment that that's how we get to those three 'great lords' who go on to be snapped up by that nice Mr Sauron. I reckon we just have very different criteria in mind as to the circumstances within which a "great lord of Númenórean descent" might attach themselves to or indeed arise in a colonial context. For me, a colony doesn't have to reach Level 36 via 10,000 development points before its first great lord appears as a playable character. You also don't appear to attach any importance to the framing "of Númenórean descent", which strikes me as potentially relevant - although I admit I could be stretching things there. Anyway, I reckon something is possible and you seem to have arrived at that something being impossible. I embrace a 'Ringless' explanation for the tragedy that is the Akallabêth and you're interests appear to lie in an explanation I hadn't previously considered, have genuinely enjoyed reading and, ultimately, find a bit too extratextual and exotic for my personal taste. We therefore diverge, which is part of the Reading Room experience. In being prompted to think about the source material again, I've gone back to a few things I haven't read in a while, and I'm grateful for being reminded of how much I enjoy the textual evolution of the Akallabêth.

Speaking of methodology, I guess this bit may go to the heart of things:

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With this kind of stuff, we're all trying a bit of secondary world historiography on for size, a bit of contextual draft sifting, and a bit of conjecture based on our understanding or previous study of primary world history. More or less. I'm not consciously seeking a hidden truth in all of this. And as an arguably pretty boring empiricist historian (purely amateur these days!), I tend to be pretty content with plausibility!

The people of Agar would have been those who "took refuge in the fastnesses of wood and mountain", rejecting Sauron's civilization. You may notice that there is no indication that the people of Agar actually worshiped Sauron or took orders from him. They also would not have been in a position to get the benefits of Sauron's rule.

He [Tal-Elmar] had seen the sun sink into the sea before, yet never before had he seen it so. He knew in a flash (as if it came from that fire itself) that he had seen it so [? he was called,] that it meant something more than the approach of the 'King's time', the dark.

We fear the Dark, but we do not love it or serve it. At least so do some of us.

And after the victory of the Lords of the West those of the evil Men who were not destroyed fled back into the east, where many of their race were still wandering in the unharvested lands, wild and lawless, refusing alike the summons of the Valar and of Morgoth. And the evil Men came among them, and cast over them a shadow of fear, and they took them for kings.

The people of Agar would have been those who "took refuge in the fastnesses of wood and mountain", rejecting Sauron's civilization

The wild men of the mountains and the woods, but these only those who stray alone need fear.

...But, like Marlowe's Hell, Mordor has no geographical limits and is wherever its victims are.

These victims not only are morally debased and physically dematerialized but also drag out their days in torment. A mortal who keeps one of the rings of power lives longer, Gandalf tells Frodo at the start, "but he does not grow or obtain more life, he merely continues, until at last every minute is a weariness." One of the most dreadful, most pitiable things about the Nazgûl is their cry of lament: "A long-drawn wail came down the wind, like the cry of some evil and lonely creature." The despair in it is a weapon that Sauron uses to spread hopelessness among the people of Minas Tirith. Angmar especially, the leader of the Nine, is known as the Captain of Despair, who drives even his own troops mad with terror during the siege. He cannot induce it in others unless he first feels it in himself, and in the last analysis it may even come fromsome corner of Sauron's own withered conscience. When Angmar threatens Eowyn on the battlefield it is not with death: Sauron "will not slay thee in thy turn. He will bear thee away to the houses of lamentation, beyond all darkness, where thy flesh shall be devoured, and thy shrivelled mind left naked to the Lidless Eye." The Nazgûl chief is no stranger to these places of physical and spiritual torture, nor to Sauron's delight in them, somewhere at the heart of the darkness which cloaks him.

Master of Middle-Earth by Paul H Kocher, Del Ray 1972