Third Age population of the east-lands of Rhovanion

[Cirashala]

Does anyone know approximately how much area east of Mirkwood/eastern Rhovanion was settled, primarily along the Celduin?

I know the Great Plague devastated that region; however, since Thranduil clearly had trade with Dorwinion (presumably still inhabited), as evidenced by his wine, and it is approximately 1,000 miles/1,600 km away from his halls, following the river (since animals need water, as well as elves and Men, etc, the road probably followed it as well), potentially necessitating at least trade posts, if not towns with inns and the like, I would think that it wasn't wholly wild, and that some Men still lived in the region.

Thoughts? Is there any strong evidence that there was still sufficient Mannish population along the Celduin, other than Dale and Esgaroth/Laketown (and, quite likely, Dorwinion, though I maintain that there must be an elven contingent there as well, given that the region's wine was potent enough to knock out even elves)?

 

[Otaku-sempai]

I'm assuming that at least some of that region ended up falling under the dominion of Dale, possibly extending as far as the Carnen (Red River).But that is largely speculation. Even if true, the King's authority might not have carried much weight in the outlands.

 

[Cirashala]

I hadn't thought of Dale being more than a monarchial city-state, to be honest, with some domain extending beyond (in the immediate vicinity) in an agricultural capacity to support said city-state.

In fact, other than Gondor and Rohan (or the eventual Reunited Kingdom of Gondor and Arnor), I'd always assumed that the Mannish cities (Bree, Archet, Dale, Esgaroth, etc) were all city-states, and not capitol cities of specific regions/realms. At least, in the world of Men. Elves definitely seemed to be more kingdom-oriented/realm-oriented, whereas Mannish cities (outside of the aforementioned areas) struck me as city-states.

I'm not entirely sure why...but they did.

I have definitely noticed, especially in the periods of history where lands bordered other realms, and horses were the main mode of transportation (or boats, though rivers sometimes have places where watercraft isn't safe (rapids, waterfalls, etc) and has to circumvent natural hazards), the reach and power of the king became less, the further away (and closer to the borders) one happened to reside, in relation to the capitol city, simply by virtue of geographic travel limitations and time needed to arrive to quell rebellion and lawlessness.

This would also mean that, absent of definitive geographic features (ie the Forest river, the elven path, the tree-line in the Woodland Realm, or perhaps, as you suggest, the Celduin, the River Carnen, and Dale to the north), the borders of the king pretty much stopped when his word and laws were no longer followed on the regular, and he was no longer acknowledged by residents. Blurred borders, in other words.

But definitive geographic features, like rivers, might've meant that his word carried greater weight, because there was never a question whether or not you were within his borders. They weren't fluid and subjective.

I do imagine that the absence of modern DEEP well-drilling equipment, and the arid climate/semi-arid climate of high grasslands/steppe of that region might've also dictated, by default, that the majority of the population of that region likely lay fairly close to the rivers, and less so away from them. Similarly to how most of the Canadian population lives within 100 miles of the Canadian border, because the north has little wood (tundra), permafrost, extremes of darkness and light, and, to be blunt, it's just too &#*@#*& COLD []

Settlements located along navigable rivers would also make it easier for the king's authority to reach further as well, by hastening the time in which he could respond to potential issues.

 

[squire]

and Tolkien knew as much as the next medievalist did about the nature of European settlements, trade, and realms, etc. in pre-modern times, when he considered how to frame his Middle-earth version of those lands.

But then he ignored what he knew, as needed for his stories. In particular, his world is practically deserted relative to Europe in the middle ages, because he's writing quest adventures. Such tales (both Bilbo's and Frodo's) need long stretches of dangerous and isolated travel remote from help or interference by locals, and then relatively isolated places of habitation for rest and refits, free from realistic political or regional conflicts that would complicate the stories.

So, as you've guessed I think, Tolkien gives us no information at all about the populations of the east-lands that Bilbo touches the margins of in his adventure. Even Dorwinion was just a name (Land of Wine) without a location in The Hobbit's schematic map. Only later, following fan inquiries, did he feel compelled to point to a spot on his larger and more extensive Lord of the Rings map, without much concern about the logistics of a wine trade conducted over 1000 miles of wilderness.

 

[Felagund]

Picking up on your main post and the subsequent contributions. The establishment of Dale as a kingdom with borders extending beyond its earlier, ‘city-state’ limits is attested in LotR. When Glóin shares his tidings of the North with Frodo in Rivendell, he includes news of Dale:

“The grandson of Bard the Bowman rules them, Brand son of Bain son of Bard. He is a strong king, and his realm now reaches far south and east of Esgaroth.”

As to how far south and east, Karen Wynn Fonstad took a punt at this, in her ever-awesome The Atlas of Middle-earth. In the Fourth Age entry of ‘The Lord of the Rings’ section of that book, you can see Wynn Fonstad’s speculative southern border of Fourth Age Dale pushing to the south of the Emyn-nu-Fuin / Emyn Duir range, while the eastern march extends by a lesser distance to the east of the River Running / Celduin. All of this makes for a long and narrow realm between Thranduil’s Woodland Realm, Erebor and the Iron Hills – albeit with wide empty lands between it and the latter. Apologies if you’ve already taken a look at Wynn Fonstad as part of your research!

I actually reckon you can argue that the Kingdom of Dale extended further east than Wynn Fonstad’s interpretation of “far south and east of Esgaroth”. In ‘Appendix B’ of LotR, we have this:

“At the same time as the great armies besieged Minas Tirith [March, III.3019] a host of the allies of Sauron [Easterlings] that had long threatened the borders of King Brand crossed the River Carnen, and Brand was driven back to Dale.”

This passage could be read as meaning either that the eastern borders of Dale were set at the Carnen (or thereabouts) or that Brand chose to contest an invasion from the east at some place near to where the Easterling host crossed the Carnen, which may have been a no-man’s land or buffer zone between Dale and Rhûn. Either of these interpretations fit the text, and there are no doubt other takes possible. For what it’s worth, I’d speculate that the River Carnen at least marked the easternmost limit of what a king in Dale regarded as territory of interest or a sphere of influence, necessitated by the fact that it provided a natural, defensible frontier with regard to hostile peoples to the east of that river. It’s a short speculative leap from there to just colouring in the map from Long Lake to the Carnen for Dale

On the subject of other realms and their organisation, which you touch on, we have references to various “kings of the Harad”, who paid homage to Gondor in the heyday of Gondorian imperialism, under Hyarmendacil I (III.1015-1149). And your mention of Bree and Archet got me to thinking (ie. massively speculating) that entity-level organisation there, if it existed at all, could be seen as cantonal in structure, rather than city-state. Just as the Helvetic Confederation brought together cantons comprised of peoples who spoke completely different languages, so too did a Bree-land comprised of Big Folk and Little Folk aggregate differences. Anyway, purely speculative fun on my part.

 

[Otaku-sempai]

The original edition of The One Ring Roleplaying Game (2011; Cubicle 7) extends the borders of the Dalelands a bit further. The Erebor supplement shows: The Northern Dalelands north-east of Dale, extending to the Grey Mountains and the eastern eaves of Mirkwood; the Upper Marches, extending to the Old Dwarf Road between Mirkwood and the Iron Hills; and the Lower Marches between the Running River and the Redwater. The king's authority is widely ignored in the Lower Marches. The desolate Waste north and west of Dale is unclaimed territory, inhabited by bandits and exiles.

 

[Otaku-sempai]

One bit of information we get from the Lake-town supplement for The One Ring RPG (first edition) is that by the year 2949 the population of the new Esgaroth has risen to over 1000 persons.

Many folks from nearby lands have come to live here, and a forest of trees has been felled to build the stilts needed to support its wooden houses, streets and quays. The city now encompasses a larger area than the one that was once enclosed within the town that Smaug destroyed, and it has been divided into seven main districts -- erroneously called "quarters' by the Lake-people, still used to their smaller home.

The Atlas of Middle-earth shows East Rhovanion to be sparsely populated, mainly along the trade route between Dale, the Iron Hills and Dorwinion. Dorwinion is shown to have a somewhat denser population. It makes sense that the people of Rhovanion would be more concentrated near the River Running (Celduin) and the Redwater (Carnen).