The trilogy will be fantastic, IMO, but this won't be a trilogy worthy of Oscars, I think. The story just doesn't have the emotional weight that LOTR had. Even if the last two films will be grimmer, there isn't really any heartwrenching moments, like Aragorn's "You bow to no one", or Frodo departing Middle-earth. Even with the deaths of Thorin and some of the dwarves, it can't really hold a candle to LOTR's triumphant moments.
I do think Hobbit will snab some technical awards, though, for film 2 and/or 3. I just don't see it winning Best Picture. RotK won Best Picture for the trilogy as a whole, really, since it deserved it. Seeing as how lukewarm critics and apparently the Academy were to it, AUJ might put a dent on the trilogy's hopes of a big Oscar. But this is pure speculation on my part. Only time will tell, and I do wish it would get something as big as Best Picture.