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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Main:
The Hobbit Movie Promotions
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noWizardme
Tol Eressea


Aug 5 2014, 4:33pm

Post #26 of 45 (182 views)
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One confounding factor, perhaps, is that the poll is still open (so the average might move around as more people vote, and now not be what it was calculated to be before)// [In reply to] Can't Post

Still, that's a good thing - a bigger sample and all...

~~~~~~

"nowimë I am in the West, Furincurunir to the Dwarves (or at least, to their best friend) and by other names in other lands. Mostly they just say 'Oh no it's him - look busy!' "
Or "Hold off! unhand me, grey-beard loon!"

This year LOTR turns 60. The following image is my LOTR 60th anniversary party footer! You can get yours here: http://newboards.theonering.net/...i?post=762154#762154


BlackFox
Valinor


Aug 5 2014, 5:03pm

Post #27 of 45 (178 views)
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My, my, what garboil my innocent little poll has caused! // [In reply to] Can't Post

 


“Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake.” - Henry David Thoreau


Bracegirdle
Grey Havens


Aug 5 2014, 6:01pm

Post #28 of 45 (172 views)
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Foxes must be good at garboiling . . [In reply to] Can't Post

Thanks for the new word. Smile

Cheers
BG

*** Waiting for more input so I can do a reapproximazation ***

Cuio i Pheriain anann! Aglar'ni Pheriannath!


BlackFox
Valinor


Aug 5 2014, 6:24pm

Post #29 of 45 (171 views)
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You're welcome! [In reply to] Can't Post

Yay, I taught a native speaker a new word! I hope I used it correctly.


“Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake.” - Henry David Thoreau


grammaboodawg
Immortal


Aug 6 2014, 4:12am

Post #30 of 45 (153 views)
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I got one of each year's menus [In reply to] Can't Post

just because they're so beautifully put together. I agree there breakfasts are really good!




6th draft of TH:AUJ Geeky Observation List - November 28, 2013
4th draft of TH:DOS Geeky Observation List - May 15, 2014



sample

"There is more in you of good than you know, child of the kindly West."

I'm SO HAPPY these new films take me back to that magical world!!



TIME Google Calendar
TORn's Geeky Observations Lists for LotR and The Hobbit


grammaboodawg
Immortal


Aug 6 2014, 4:24am

Post #31 of 45 (157 views)
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I haven't done many of the contests [In reply to] Can't Post

Most of the time, you have to be a member of facebook or twitter or something... and I'm not active in those. I have gone to Dennys for the previous 2 Middle-earth promos and collected a set of their store promo items (tents, menu, placemat, etc.). I have gotten some of the action figures and Lego sets; but there's little to choose from with The Hobbit films.

I was very active in collecting the restaurant, store items for LotR. The goblets, toys, busts, maps, etc. But there's nothing like that for The Hobbit films... which is hugely negectful of WB. They don't seem to "get" the geek-factor and that we are drawn to those special little treasures.




6th draft of TH:AUJ Geeky Observation List - November 28, 2013
4th draft of TH:DOS Geeky Observation List - May 15, 2014



sample

"There is more in you of good than you know, child of the kindly West."

I'm SO HAPPY these new films take me back to that magical world!!



TIME Google Calendar
TORn's Geeky Observations Lists for LotR and The Hobbit


Bracegirdle
Grey Havens


Aug 6 2014, 1:24pm

Post #32 of 45 (142 views)
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Yes, you did. At first glance I thought a garboil [In reply to] Can't Post

must be a baby gargoyle or something. Smile


I wonder how many 'native speakers' knew what a garboil was?

“Uva uvam vivendo varia fit."


BlackFox
Valinor


Aug 6 2014, 1:42pm

Post #33 of 45 (138 views)
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"Baby gargoyle" [In reply to] Can't Post

LaughLaugh


“Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake.” - Henry David Thoreau


kernul
Registered User

Aug 6 2014, 9:58pm

Post #34 of 45 (137 views)
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Poll is still open, so the values probably changed. [In reply to] Can't Post

Hi Bracegirdle, I think the values have changed since I did a rough estimation of the age. It wasn't a very accurate way to judge the age range, I just did an average (Sum/# of participants).

NoWizardme, I did check out the Pollantir, that's where I found the poll that's raising all these mathematical questions :) Thanks for your help.

I have made a survey on survey monkey, its only 8 questions so takes less than a couple of minutes. If you have the time please click away:
https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/VKB8P53


(This post was edited by kernul on Aug 6 2014, 10:00pm)


Bracegirdle
Grey Havens


Aug 6 2014, 11:22pm

Post #35 of 45 (120 views)
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Ok kernul, just checked the poll and it has not changed but . . . [In reply to] Can't Post

I made a mistake on my original figures and NO ONE called me on it.

What is it? - The way I worded it leaves out everyone who is exactly 40!

Quote
67 people are less than 40
61 people are more than 40

Wouldn’t this make an average age of (the poll takers) in the neighborhood of 36-37 years? Or am I totally off-the-wall in my thinking? (Wouldn't be the first time!)

Snuck one past y'all, eh? TongueTongue

“Uva uvam vivendo varia fit."


Rembrethil
Tol Eressea


Aug 7 2014, 1:42am

Post #36 of 45 (120 views)
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Maybe a baby *boy* gargoyle, as opposed to 'gargiyle'? [In reply to] Can't Post

 

Call me Rem, and remember, not all who ramble are lost...Uh...where was I?


dreamflower
Lorien

Aug 7 2014, 3:12am

Post #37 of 45 (119 views)
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Promotions [In reply to] Can't Post

I'm not much into collectibles as in actively pursuing them. I have a lot of items that were gifts from various people and are treasured not only because of the Tolkien connection but also for the giver; I prefer for the most part to make my own memorabilia.

The sorts of promotions I'd be more interested in would be fun activities, such as line parties, or as someone else mentioned, something like the Trilogy Tuesday deals. A contest to win a chance to go to a premiere might be nice. I like trivia contests for the fun of it--the prizes wouldn't have to be anything spectacular.

BTW, I am 62. I collect my first Social Security check next week.


BlackFox
Valinor


Aug 7 2014, 8:50am

Post #38 of 45 (111 views)
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Done! // [In reply to] Can't Post

 


“Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake.” - Henry David Thoreau


BlackFox
Valinor


Aug 7 2014, 8:52am

Post #39 of 45 (110 views)
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Hahaha! // [In reply to] Can't Post

 


“Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake.” - Henry David Thoreau


DanielLB
Immortal


Aug 7 2014, 3:41pm

Post #40 of 45 (108 views)
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Late to the thread ... [In reply to] Can't Post

This thread would make a statisticians day, if they saw it.

As has already been reiterated, you can't get a mean from averaging over the ranges. It just doesn't work. There's no mathematical basis behind it. However, I learnt this technique a couple of years ago, which computes which band the true average would fall in to.

Based upon the results as of today:

Age     Frequency
00-20    25
20-30    31
30-40    11
40-50    32
50-60    19
60+       10
            128 in total

Already we have problems, because the bands aren't all equal. We'll carry on though.

First, assign values to each response. Since we're looking at ordinal data, the higher the age, the higher the value is assigned to that response.

Age     Frequency   Value
00-20    25            1
20-30    31            2
30-40    11            3
40-50    32            4
50-60    19            5
60+       10            6
            128 responses in total

Then we multiply the frequency of responses in each category to the value we just assigned to that category (i.e. score = frequency * value)

Age     Frequency   Value   Score
00-20    25            1            25
20-30    31            2            62
30-40    11            3            33
40-50    32            4            128
50-60    19            5            95
60+       10            6            60
            128 in total;      403 in total

Now we can compute the average rating, by dividing the total number of points (403) by the total number of people who answered the question (128).

Average rating = 403/128 = 3.15

This means the average age of this group is somewhere between group 3, 30-40, and group 4, 40-50 (or in other words 30-50), but a lot closer to category 3, 30-40.

Does that make sense?



DanielLB
Immortal


Aug 7 2014, 3:59pm

Post #41 of 45 (98 views)
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And, actually, a quick way of validating this ... [In reply to] Can't Post

Is to create a random dataset.

So, all I did was create a set of random ages for each of the categories. I.e.:

25 random ages between 10-20 (assuming 10 would be the absolute lowest. I can't imagine anyone younger on the forum, though I'm sure there might be).
31 random ages between 20-30
...
...
10 random ages between 60-77 (the average lifespan for an adult living in the UK).

Using this method, you can obviously create many, many different random age arrays.

I created a set of 10 random datasets, these are the averages for each of them:

36.4
37.3
36.4
36.9
36.2
37.1
36.7
36.3
36.1
37.2

Average (and standard deviation) = 36.66 (+/- 0.44) years of age.

This agrees rather nicely with my previous estimate, being between 30-40 years old.



(This post was edited by DanielLB on Aug 7 2014, 4:07pm)


Bracegirdle
Grey Havens


Aug 7 2014, 4:20pm

Post #42 of 45 (89 views)
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HOORAY! Thanks DanielLB! . . . [In reply to] Can't Post

As I said before I left my mathematical brain long in the past and have some trouble following your thinking. But I'm so pleased that my simplistic style seems to agree with your data. Smile


Quote
67 people are less than 40
61 people are more than 40

(My guess was) Average age around 36-37..

Whereas your average is 36.66 (+/- 0.44).

Amazing! I feel so vindicated. Thank you!

“Uva uvam vivendo varia fit."


kernul
Registered User

Aug 7 2014, 8:55pm

Post #43 of 45 (80 views)
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Ctrl-c >> Ctrl-v [In reply to] Can't Post

Thanks so much DanielLB, I'm going to cut & paste this straight into my presentation and hopefully that'll impress the socks off my examiner ;)

I just hope I know what I'm saying when I do that :)

Thanks for filling out the survey folks. If anybody is interested I'll post the results here in a few days...


DanielLB
Immortal


Aug 8 2014, 6:08am

Post #44 of 45 (70 views)
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Take a couple of minutes to understand it. [In reply to] Can't Post

You'll run into difficulties if you just copy/paste word for word.

If it helps understand it better, think of my method being equivalent to finding the median age range.



squire
Valinor


Aug 8 2014, 11:42am

Post #45 of 45 (78 views)
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Don't forget what Nowizardme pointed out, though [In reply to] Can't Post

As he said, the data are 'double-humped', that is they cluster around two groups: younger people (teens and young 20s) and middle-aged people (40s to 60s), with a noticeable shortfall in, roughly, the late 20s to early 40s.

The speculation was that that population is too busy with family and careers to spend much time on the 'net talking Tolkien, but who knows if that is right.

In any case, with such a data set both the mean and median, as measures of central tendency, do not convey the essence of the survey very well at all. To say that the average or median age is late 30s suggests to any audience that most respondents are around that age, and that's exactly the opposite of what the data actually tell us. Just your pointing that out before your critics do might be helpful in your presentation.



squire online:
RR Discussions: The Valaquenta, A Shortcut to Mushrooms, and Of Herbs and Stewed Rabbit
Lights! Action! Discuss on the Movie board!: 'A Journey in the Dark'. and 'Designing The Two Towers'.
Footeramas: The 3rd & 4th TORn Reading Room LotR Discussion and NOW the 1st BotR Discussion too! and "Tolkien would have LOVED it!"
squiretalk introduces the J.R.R. Tolkien Encyclopedia: A Reader's Diary


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