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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
Prediction of DOS opening BO in China!


Feb 21 2014, 4:53pm

Post #1 of 16 (871 views)
Prediction of DOS opening BO in China! Can't Post


Estimates have Smaug Friday around 55~58m incl premieres, a significant increase (57%) over the first Hobbit. Considering Smaug notably downfell in some key markets and barely stayed flat in many others, the bump from China is really exceptional, which can only be possibly explained by the growing market (Smaug screens added 40% more AUJ and February has been performing 80%+ better than last year).

Friday estimate:DOS 61M new

Tol Eressea

Feb 21 2014, 5:39pm

Post #2 of 16 (485 views)
BO [In reply to] Can't Post

No prediction needed. When people camp out in close quarters all night long to see the opening of a movie, it's well known fact that they're going to get pretty fragrant.

*ducks and runs out of thread*

"And we find what we're made of
Through the open door
Is it fear you're afraid of?
What are you waiting for?
Love alone is worth the fight."


Feb 21 2014, 5:46pm

Post #3 of 16 (476 views)
Hmm. [In reply to] Can't Post

They may like all the ghastly comic-book stuff probably partly why it was included in the film, as well as to try and attract certain American viewers. Wonder if they'll notice the Legolas zombie look? Unimpressed

It's possible that they may also like Smaug, though he isn't an auspicious Chinese dragon I find it difficult to gauge what the reaction to Smaug will be in China, and it will be interesting to see.


Feb 21 2014, 5:59pm

Post #4 of 16 (519 views)
Current Global Box office [In reply to] Can't Post

according to Global Box office guru's wbsite..

Dos is @ 858.6 million
China... @ 61.0 estimate

................919.6 likely next total

So w/Japan opening @ the end of the Month?

Maybe like last year, DoS hits the
Magical 1 Billion
Mark about
March 3rd?

Japan created Godzilla & Smaug looks aLOT like him.


(This post was edited by Bombadil on Feb 21 2014, 6:01pm)

Misty Mountain Hop

Feb 21 2014, 6:45pm

Post #5 of 16 (477 views)
Last year... [In reply to] Can't Post

It looks like last year AUJ was outperformed in China on opening weekend by "Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons"

AUJ opened to $18.7 million, while Journey to the West opened to $54 million. So I guess there will be no competiting for DOS, which is great!


"Only, you've never done a hard day's work." - Merry


Feb 21 2014, 7:01pm

Post #6 of 16 (436 views)
Yes Bomby! [In reply to] Can't Post

DOS is currently sitting at 860.5 worldwide.If the estimates/predictions of China are true,tomorrow morning DOS will be around 920Smile

Misty Mountain Hop

Feb 21 2014, 7:07pm

Post #7 of 16 (441 views)
billion? [In reply to] Can't Post

and if China gets roughly $100 million total in the next month, and Japan (opens next weekend) outperforms their $20 million from last year, that could put DOS right around $10 million short of $1 billion.

"Only, you've never done a hard day's work." - Merry


Feb 21 2014, 7:07pm

Post #8 of 16 (441 views)
Remember those figures are in Yuan, not Dollars [In reply to] Can't Post

That changes it. 1 Billion is still likely out of the picture. It'll likely settle around 950 million. Hardly scraps.

I kind of hope they re-release it stateside. I missed the HFR version...

Tol Eressea

Feb 21 2014, 7:30pm

Post #9 of 16 (435 views)
$61m opening day in China - that would be something... ;) [In reply to] Can't Post

As has been mentioned, those are Yuan, not US Dollars. Still, that would be a close to 60% increase compared to AUJ's opening day. At last some good news for DOS... Nevertheless, it's not hitting $1b. Mad But at least it could hit $700m overseas now.

(This post was edited by Estel78 on Feb 21 2014, 7:31pm)


Feb 21 2014, 7:54pm

Post #10 of 16 (396 views)
Yes,that is true [In reply to] Can't Post

950+ would be a nice figure.


Feb 22 2014, 4:43pm

Post #11 of 16 (264 views)
Saturday estimates for DOS in China [In reply to] Can't Post

is 83m yuan(around 13.6m$).AUJ had done 44m that day last year.A huge increase indeed so far



Feb 22 2014, 8:11pm

Post #12 of 16 (212 views)
Great to hear! [In reply to] Can't Post

Thanks for keeping us posted, NecromancerRising! Smile


Feb 22 2014, 8:35pm

Post #13 of 16 (195 views)
You are welcome! [In reply to] Can't Post

It is likely that DOS will almost double AUJ in the first weekend.Very good news at last.


Feb 23 2014, 12:25am

Post #14 of 16 (185 views)
DOS on track for anything between $80-$110 M in China [In reply to] Can't Post

If it follows the trends, according to the Chinese box office expert on BoxOffice.com. That will be a massive increase on AUJ, way more than double.


Feb 23 2014, 4:33pm

Post #15 of 16 (105 views)
Sunday estimate 63m for DOS [In reply to] Can't Post

So far we have: Friday 57m
Saturday 78m
Sunday 63m

Overall, 198m yuan=32.5m$ and a huge increase compared to AUJ last year.DOS is on track for over 80m dollars in China.
Sounds too good to be true honestlyLaugh


Feb 23 2014, 4:42pm

Post #16 of 16 (107 views)
The exact comparison with AUJ [In reply to] Can't Post

Friday: AUJ 36.5 DOS 57
Saturday: AUJ 44 DOS 79
Sunday: AUJ 35 DOS 63

Overall:AUJ 115.5 DOS 199


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