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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
Box Office of DoS

Arannir
Valinor


May 7 2013, 7:55am

Post #1 of 20 (788 views)
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Box Office of DoS Can't Post

Time for that one again, Estel I am counting on you ;)


With all the hype regarding the recent and future summer superhero movie releases, I felt confirmed again, that the potential of the box office of AUJ was highly over-estimated in certain internet circles. The zeitgeist seems to hype other things right now. Sure, the huge appeal of LotR, Tolkien and the original trilogy still guarantee high numbers, but there does not seem to be the hype that brings you 1,2 Bill plus numbers. Yes, critics probably hurt a bit, but still, even the opening weekend wasn't as hot as some hoped it to be (look how IM3 exploded at the BO although average rating is not that much better than AUJ's and is still falling).

I see the same happening for DoS - the hype lies with other movies. Though some of them do not have the fanbase to outdo DoS, I guess we will not see a sudden explosion.

The overall worldwide ranking after the year I would expect is:

1. Iron Man 3
2. The Hobbit 2
3. Catching Fire

with Star Trek, Man of Steel and Pacific Rim potentially outdoing their expectations.

The only other scenario I could see is massive praise for Smaug. Things like that indeed seem to be something that the BO is very influential to. And a dragon, is a dragon, is a dragon (though expectations for Smaug are probably so high that reactions are doomed to be mixed).

Any thoughts?



“A dragon is no idle fancy. Whatever may be his origins, in fact or invention, the dragon in legend is a potent creation of men’s imagination, richer in significance than his barrow is in gold.” J.R.R. Tolkien

Words of wisdom that should be remembered - both by critics, purists and anyone in between.

(This post was edited by Arannir on May 7 2013, 7:57am)


cats16
Valinor

May 7 2013, 8:31am

Post #2 of 20 (392 views)
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Cool thread here [In reply to] Can't Post

Yeah, I think this year is going to be pretty interesting in terms of how the BO turns out. We're already witnessing the "post-Avengers shock" that is benefiting Iron Man 3. I would imagine that Thor: The Dark World will have an increase in November from the first film, also being aided by The Avengers. Of course, not to the extremes that IM3 is enjoying at the moment, but an improvement nonetheless. Man of Steel, though, is probably the wild card of the bunch this year. Mainly because it is 1) the first of a *potential* series being directed by a very stylized and polarizing director (300, Sucker Punch), and 2) A new superhero series being released only 7 years after the not-so-well-received Superman reboots of the early/mid 2000s. I could see it doing quite well, depending on its marketing success in the next month until the release and how the initial word of mouth goes.

Also, I wouldn't count out the two big animated sequels being released this summer, being Monsters University and Despicable Me 2. Both, especially Monsters, have had great home video releases and have maintained a high level of support throughout the promotion of these films. I don't think that MU can quite reach the success of Toy Story 3 three years ago, but should do quite well. Same goes for the minions too. Wink

I'd say Catching Fire will have a nice increase from the ~650 million worldwide that the first one grossed last year. But, it seems like it hasn't seemed to be as interesting in international markets, compared to the US domestic numbers. I would guess anywhere between 800-850 mil. for it worldwide.

So, talking about DOS, I think that the final numbers will end up being either a slight decrease or a slight increase. I know that sounds sort of obvious, but what I mean is that I don't think the public reception of AUJ will drastically affect the numbers for DOS (either negative or positive). For some reason, I keep seeing 975 million in my head for the worldwide final total. But, I'm going to disagree...with myself...(sorry it's really late now *drifts off to sleep*) and say that DOS will have an increase because of our beloved Smaug (and other characters that we haven't met yet that should be very neat...cough, cough...Beorn). This is why I'm really curious to see a trailer soon, because this will help us see how WB plans to draw people back into theaters again. Especially those who felt that AUJ did not live up to their expectations. Give them a reason to go see it (dragons, dragons, dragons).

Sorry this post has been very long winded, but I do really enjoy talking about the box office, despite that I actually do not enjoy many superhero/action films that I've just spent so much time analyzing!! Those kind of films really are not enjoyable, to me, but nonetheless I love looking at the numbers all year. Smile

Here's to DOS blowing past Avatar's $2.7 billion gross in 3 days!!TongueWink


Mr. Arkenstone (isaac)
Grey Havens


May 7 2013, 8:55am

Post #3 of 20 (387 views)
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Hobbit has long legs [In reply to] Can't Post

Though I feel Man of Steel is gonna make a big time; but definetly DOS will make better numbers than AUJ

The flagon with the dragon has the brew that is true!


Bombadil
Half-elven


May 7 2013, 9:52am

Post #4 of 20 (375 views)
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Bomby sees DOS doing Better than AUJ... [In reply to] Can't Post

1. Many won't go to Public theaters anymore, since their Homes are Theaters now.

2. Home video rentals, Internet sharing clips,
& the Upcoming EE.. keep AUJ in Front
of the public straight through
to DoS December release.

3. Critics are frowned on anymore.
They need their own PR overhaul.

4. The Fanbase just keeps getting bigger.

5. Similar Momentum
we witnessed in PJ's earlier 3.


Glorfindela
Valinor


May 7 2013, 10:53am

Post #5 of 20 (351 views)
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I think it may do better than AUJ [In reply to] Can't Post

The box-office figures were very good for the first film, particularly given the negativity displayed by some critics, especially in America. These films are also different from anything else that's coming out in cinema these days, and people will surely tire of the plethora of Transformer-type films like IM3 (lots of whizz, bang, wallop and little substance).

There are some potentially very interesting characters coming in the second film, such as Smaug, Beorn and Thranduil, which should pull in viewers. The release of upfront material should keep the interest going – though I hope they don't show either Smaug or Beorn before the film is released!

Anyway, I'm sure I'll see it much more than once…


Patty
Immortal


May 7 2013, 12:54pm

Post #6 of 20 (308 views)
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I'm thinking Star Trek will do really well, if they would just... [In reply to] Can't Post

do something to strongly remind folks of the first one (with Chris Pine) and tie them in. It's obviously too late for a short re-release, but if it could be pushed to be on TV (on the free channels) that would help. Unfortunately, so much time has elapsed since that last one...
I hope it helps that a 9 minute trailer was tied onto The Hobbit. Iron Man is going to really hurt it, too.

Permanent address: Into the West






Glorfindela
Valinor


May 7 2013, 2:37pm

Post #7 of 20 (271 views)
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Star Trek is about the only summer film I'm looking forward to! [In reply to] Can't Post

I really liked the last one. Truly hope it does well (and that it is a good film.)

None of the American comic-book or other 'Transformer-like' films appeals at all, except perhaps for Thor (like the Thor and Loki characters and actors).


In Reply To
do something to strongly remind folks of the first one (with Chris Pine) and tie them in. It's obviously too late for a short re-release, but if it could be pushed to be on TV (on the free channels) that would help. Unfortunately, so much time has elapsed since that last one...
I hope it helps that a 9 minute trailer was tied onto The Hobbit. Iron Man is going to really hurt it, too.



Estel78
Tol Eressea

May 7 2013, 7:36pm

Post #8 of 20 (241 views)
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Did someone call my name? ;) [In reply to] Can't Post


In Reply To
Time for that one again, Estel I am counting on you ;),


But you basically already said everything i would have. While Hobbit still does big money, doing a billion is not that special anymore, especially coming off LOTR. It's other movies writing the headlines. I expect DOS to do about the same as AUJ, slightly more or less. Dwarves just limit the mass appeal. They want hunky men and pretty ladies.

Iron Man 3 wins the year, unless something breaks out hugely. If Catching Fire catches fire Wink internationally it might pose a thread to Hobbit but probably not. Star Trek is even weaker internationally. Man of Steel will be interesting. Rumors are the film is great and i definitely dig the latest trailer. But being a superhero movie (and not part of the Avengers Wink) will probably somewhat limit its appeal internationally, too.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on May 7 2013, 7:44pm)


Ardamírë
Valinor


May 8 2013, 1:06am

Post #9 of 20 (189 views)
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Iron Man 3 [In reply to] Can't Post

What do you think it's going to make total? I saw that it's had an amazing opening weekend.

I'm really looking forward to Catching Fire. The trailer makes it look pretty good, and I think the switch of directors is going to really help it.

"...not till now have I understood the tale of your people and their fall. As wicked fools I scorned them, but I pity them at last. For if this is indeed, as the Eldar say, the gift of the One to Men, it is bitter to receive." -Arwen


MouthofSauron
Tol Eressea


May 8 2013, 2:30am

Post #10 of 20 (185 views)
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my prediction [In reply to] Can't Post

Man of Steel
Desolation of Smaug
ST Into Darkness


take me down to the woodland realm where the trees are green and the elf women are pretty....Oh will you please take me home!!


Arannir
Valinor


May 8 2013, 7:06am

Post #11 of 20 (172 views)
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My 2 cents... [In reply to] Can't Post

... I expect it to end better than Transformers DotM which currently ranks 5 and a bit short of Harry Potter 8 (rank 4).

Around 1,2 billion, I'd say, unless it really breaks out and is not influenced at all by Star Trek.

I expect IM3 to be very "frontloaded".


End of the year, I think:

Iron Man 3: 1,25 - 1,3 billion
DoS: 975 Mio - 1,2 billion



“A dragon is no idle fancy. Whatever may be his origins, in fact or invention, the dragon in legend is a potent creation of men’s imagination, richer in significance than his barrow is in gold.” J.R.R. Tolkien

Words of wisdom that should be remembered - both by critics, purists and anyone in between.

(This post was edited by Arannir on May 8 2013, 7:07am)


Estel78
Tol Eressea

May 8 2013, 7:06am

Post #12 of 20 (163 views)
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Around $1.2b worldwide for Iron Man 3. // [In reply to] Can't Post

 


macfalk
Valinor


May 8 2013, 7:13am

Post #13 of 20 (154 views)
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Star Trek [In reply to] Can't Post

is big in the US, but internationally, not so much: The international gross was actually just 127 million, which is not even half of what it grossed in the US (!)



The greatest adventure is what lies ahead.


Welsh hero
Gondor


May 8 2013, 8:02am

Post #14 of 20 (171 views)
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Well [In reply to] Can't Post

Sequals usually do better than the pervious film. But when looking at 2013 as a whole, it's hard to say how films do

We have to remember what the biggest film on 2012 was. The Avengers. 2 films with avengers charecters are out this year. Thor and Iron Man. They will do very well.

in 2009, the last star trek film made $385.7 million. Wolvorine made $373.1 last time and also has a film out.

Iron man has allready made $711,212,195

Iron Man will be top, full stop.

The rest of the list is hard to figure out.

I don't think man of steel will do as well as the batman series. First in the series and stuff. Hangover 3 is also out, which can do well.

But I do see The hobbit being in the top 5, but where, hard to say

-Irfon

Twitter: @IrfonPennant
middle earth timeline FB: https://www.facebook.com/MiddleEarth1


Patty
Immortal


May 8 2013, 11:44am

Post #15 of 20 (143 views)
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I didn't know that. [In reply to] Can't Post

I had thought Star Trek's appeal was pretty much universal. Well, perhaps this movie coming up will increase its popularity.

Permanent address: Into the West






Elessar
Valinor


May 8 2013, 1:00pm

Post #16 of 20 (138 views)
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Just DoS [In reply to] Can't Post

As far as Dos goes I think it will be in the 1.2-1.3 range.



Ardamírë
Valinor


May 8 2013, 2:26pm

Post #17 of 20 (130 views)
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It certainly is frontloaded so far. [In reply to] Can't Post

Just for reference, is it's opening more or less than Avengers was?

"...not till now have I understood the tale of your people and their fall. As wicked fools I scorned them, but I pity them at last. For if this is indeed, as the Eldar say, the gift of the One to Men, it is bitter to receive." -Arwen


Arannir
Valinor


May 8 2013, 3:30pm

Post #18 of 20 (117 views)
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There is a lot of info here: [In reply to] Can't Post

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3682&p=.htm7

Better than me copy pasting everything :)



“A dragon is no idle fancy. Whatever may be his origins, in fact or invention, the dragon in legend is a potent creation of men’s imagination, richer in significance than his barrow is in gold.” J.R.R. Tolkien

Words of wisdom that should be remembered - both by critics, purists and anyone in between.


Ardamírë
Valinor


May 8 2013, 3:36pm

Post #19 of 20 (112 views)
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Ok thanks! [In reply to] Can't Post

I'm not very well-versed in B.O. takings, but I do find them to be interesting.

"...not till now have I understood the tale of your people and their fall. As wicked fools I scorned them, but I pity them at last. For if this is indeed, as the Eldar say, the gift of the One to Men, it is bitter to receive." -Arwen


UncleThorin
Registered User

May 12 2013, 9:53am

Post #20 of 20 (97 views)
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Regarding Thor TDW... [In reply to] Can't Post

I think it's fair to say it will have a sizeable Avengers bump, but I also would not rule out extra factors such as the first movie not doing too poorly by itself, the notably bankable Loki (Thor himself is nothing to pass over, but after all, the trickster's managed to weasel his way into the same number of films so far!), and lastly the new "Game of Thrones" pedigree via director. Last I heard, people were still interested in GoT and a similarly invoked "style" could get some crossover. Hopefully without Anthony Hopkins going the way of Sean Bean. Shocked


I'm hopeful that DoS could deliver a strong performance, but I think that could mostly rely on a strong promotion. Emphasizing what is in the film (please no last minute character design changes Frown), and how it will be new sights, new faces, lookatthatfulldragon, etc. Honestly, since AUJ has already "bothered" so many critics, DoS could benefit simply from not "dragging" as much and having less exposition... maybe. Perhaps the HFR won't be as polarizing this time, too. (Since it's been "experienced" before.)

 
 

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