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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
Box office update.....getting closer to....
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imin
Valinor


Jan 21 2013, 11:26am

Post #51 of 68 (415 views)
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Very interesting post [In reply to] Can't Post

I had no idea why the release date was so different to much of the world, thanks.

And like you say there is action to spare in the hobbit and it sounds like they have some committed fans so hopefully will make what it is projected to.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Jan 21 2013, 11:36am

Post #52 of 68 (425 views)
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So you're also on BO.com? ;) [In reply to] Can't Post

People there seem to be more confident in Skyfall than Hobbit doing really well in China. It fared slightly better in countries like Hong Kong, for example, which could be an indicator.

Fascinating was the run of the Titanic re-release in China. Despite it being available on home video and DVD for 15 years, illegally and legally, it grossed $150m there.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Jan 21 2013, 11:37am)


peace1993
Bree


Jan 21 2013, 12:00pm

Post #53 of 68 (393 views)
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Titanic makes no sense to me [In reply to] Can't Post

How the hell did a 3D re-release make $150 million? However, I am optimistic about the Hobbit because its in 3D and it has plenty of action. I mean if crap like John Carter and Battleship can make $50 million, the Hobbit deserves at least $60 million. But, the Chinese BO is very unpredictable. Keeping my fingers crossedCool

Sam: Trust a Brandybuck and a Took.
Merry: What? That was just a detour, a shortcut.
Sam: Shortcut to what?
Pippin: Mushrooms!


bborchar
Rohan

Jan 21 2013, 3:27pm

Post #54 of 68 (359 views)
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The Chinese gov't.... [In reply to] Can't Post

...has the whole movie industry rigged. I believe they only allow 34 western-produced films into the country per year. They pump a ton of cash into the Chinese film industry, and like the Hobbit, give competing western films late release dates. It's also why they don't do more to crack down on piracy of illegal dvds.

They do all of this because Hollywood knows that the Chinese market is too big to pass up. So some Hollywood studios have "partnered" with Chinese studios, building new studios in China and creating "collaborations" there. This way they can circumvent the import restrictions, and the Chinese authorities can get kickbacks "legally" from the studios. It's a sophisticated form of bribery.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Jan 21 2013, 3:44pm

Post #55 of 68 (337 views)
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This is all true [In reply to] Can't Post

The studios also get less of a return from the box office compared to other countries (the government keeps the lion's share). Still, it has become a lucrative market due to its sheer size.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Jan 21 2013, 3:51pm)


BeornBerserker
Lorien

Jan 21 2013, 5:20pm

Post #56 of 68 (313 views)
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One of the early themes [In reply to] Can't Post

One of the early themes of the discussion on BO numbers was whether PJ would be compelled in some way to change the next two movies due to the lack of commercial success. I've always thought it absurd mainly because I don't see PJ succumbing pressure to deviate from his vision for the films and I think its doubtful WB or MGM would attempt to do so in any event. Whether the movie is meeting the internal projections of WB and MGM can never be truly known but right now the trilogy is on a trajectory to provide 100+% return on investment and in any circles as investments go that kind of return over a 5-10 year period is outstanding.

One thing that gets lost in this debate is all of WB/MGM's projections were changed and likely for the better and to their liking in July when the decision for 3 movies was made. All of a sudden the potential for potentially 3 1billion+ theatrical releases were realized. Of course that also means 3 theatrical DVD/bluray releases, 3 EE DVD/bluray releases, an additional 7 months in the public eye which will also drive more collectible, movie related story/art book, toy, and game license related sales. It's a guess but I think a good one that WB probably didn't hesitate very much with decision, especially given it only required a limited amount of extra shooting.

So along with the fact that I just don't see them steping over PJ and his vision for the movies, there is no reason financially that would compel something drastic like that. When you are looking at the current trajectory which will be an incredible return on investment tinkering could just as easily produce negative results. IMHO, DoS and TaBA will be the movies that PJ wanted to make.


stoutfiles
Rohan


Jan 21 2013, 5:45pm

Post #57 of 68 (264 views)
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Everyone in the East had already seen Hunger Games [In reply to] Can't Post

It's called Battle Royale and it's an excellent movie.


peace1993
Bree


Jan 21 2013, 5:51pm

Post #58 of 68 (258 views)
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Exactly what I felt when I was watching HG [In reply to] Can't Post

Hunger games is a shameless rip-off (books and movie)

Sam: Trust a Brandybuck and a Took.
Merry: What? That was just a detour, a shortcut.
Sam: Shortcut to what?
Pippin: Mushrooms!


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Jan 21 2013, 6:44pm

Post #59 of 68 (278 views)
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They will replace PJ with James Cameron [In reply to] Can't Post

$2b guaranteed (per movie), with $150m from China. Wink


Arannir
Valinor

Jan 21 2013, 7:39pm

Post #60 of 68 (236 views)
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Exactly... but each time we come to this in a thread it starts all over ;-) [In reply to] Can't Post

 


peace1993
Bree


Jan 21 2013, 7:57pm

Post #61 of 68 (279 views)
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Update [In reply to] Can't Post

Hobbit at $921 million. Made $1.5 million in the US on Monday.

Sam: Trust a Brandybuck and a Took.
Merry: What? That was just a detour, a shortcut.
Sam: Shortcut to what?
Pippin: Mushrooms!


Jim
Rivendell


Jan 21 2013, 8:22pm

Post #62 of 68 (240 views)
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Closing in on... [In reply to] Can't Post

The Two Towers at $926 million.....it's going to break the billion dollar mark easily......what a flop this movie is.


MasterOrc
Rivendell


Jan 21 2013, 8:23pm

Post #63 of 68 (253 views)
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As the rebel commander said to..... [In reply to] Can't Post

Luke....."stay on target...stay on target".....once we hit a billion you can do what you wantSly

Thinking of seeing it one more time in IMAX 3D.....


Rostron2
Gondor


Jan 21 2013, 8:35pm

Post #64 of 68 (211 views)
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MGM [In reply to] Can't Post

That's an interesting set of points. MGM has a lot of creditors to pay so profits will make a difference to them, or at least to their bankers that are demanding money. Skyfall was also their property, so I guess those creditors will get at least some of their money. These aren't going to be films with runaway profits for all concerned, however.


peace1993
Bree


Jan 21 2013, 8:46pm

Post #65 of 68 (228 views)
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Pity its a flop [In reply to] Can't Post

Laugh

Sam: Trust a Brandybuck and a Took.
Merry: What? That was just a detour, a shortcut.
Sam: Shortcut to what?
Pippin: Mushrooms!


Elessar
Valinor


Jan 21 2013, 9:26pm

Post #66 of 68 (199 views)
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Getting there [In reply to] Can't Post

It's is going to which makes me happy because I think this movie deserves it for being that good (and bringing this bit of Tolkien to life). I'm gonna have to see this a fifth time.



Estel78
Tol Eressea

Jan 21 2013, 9:29pm

Post #67 of 68 (215 views)
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It's not going to hit $1b easily. [In reply to] Can't Post

It depends on China. If it does less than $40m there it might miss $1b. It probably will do at least $40m but you never know. It's too early to celebrate.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Jan 21 2013, 9:30pm)


macfalk
Valinor


Jan 21 2013, 9:45pm

Post #68 of 68 (247 views)
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FLOP [In reply to] Can't Post

Let's pack our bags and go home everyone, this film is now officially a flop, I read so on IMDB. Therefore, it's a fact!

The suits will pull the plug on the next two films according to an anonymous inside source. In fact even the EE will be cancelled and there will be a limited release of the theatrical edition dvd.

FLOP
.



The greatest adventure is what lies ahead.

(This post was edited by macfalk on Jan 21 2013, 9:46pm)

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