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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
box office update
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Tol Eressea

Jan 15 2013, 5:02am

Post #76 of 88 (196 views)
It's not "of course" [In reply to] Can't Post

The only way of knowing would be to release a movie in Summer, than take a time machine trip back and release it during some other time and compare the grosses.

Like i said, it's tradition to release your tentpole in the summer since Jaws. That's it, it's tradition. Summer also gets expanded more and more. June used to be the start of the summer movie season, now it's May or even the last days of April. Btw, in May schools are not out. And like i said, studios have been releasing more and more tentpoles outside the summer season.

Yes, Avatar was in theaters after it hit bluray but it already made the vast majority of its money by then. It was at over $745m (North America) when the bluray came out.

No, Avengers would not have ended up number 1 had they kept it in theaters for 34 weeks. Theaters would have been empty by then. They don't ditch a movie just because but because there's not enough demand anymore.


Jan 15 2013, 5:06am

Post #77 of 88 (199 views)
Okie dokie lol [In reply to] Can't Post

By the way classes do get out in May as a general rule. My school gets out May 21st.

(This post was edited by Elessar on Jan 15 2013, 5:07am)

Tol Eressea

Jan 15 2013, 5:29am

Post #78 of 88 (194 views)
lol back ;) [In reply to] Can't Post

May 21 is already 3 weeks into the run of the tentpole that kicks off summer. Considering how frontloaded movies are these days that's an eternity. Wink

You do know that the heat of summer has been traditionally a time where you do not release tentpoles overseas, don't you? But they do it anyway now, at least some tentpoles.

(This post was edited by Estel78 on Jan 15 2013, 5:33am)


Jan 15 2013, 1:14pm

Post #79 of 88 (157 views)
Hunger Games [In reply to] Can't Post

Was a big failure worldwide, just look at the overseas numbers. The Hobbit may be underperforming in US market but it's doing well internationally.

The greatest adventure is what lies ahead.


Jan 15 2013, 2:15pm

Post #80 of 88 (145 views)
USA [In reply to] Can't Post

It is but its the last 3 weeks of the school year here in the USA. Classes are winding down so less homework and parents let their kids stay out later or are willing to go see a movie later in the day. I can't speak so much for outside of the USA but I can tell you I know for a fact that putting a movie out in the Summer even the bad ones will help them make more money. That May/June/July area is a great time to get a movie started here in the states. So relasing tentpole movies in the summer is generally a good time to release movies in here in the USA.

Top 20 All-Time BO

Of these 20 movies only 6 of these films were not released during the Summer months. Now, similar to what you were talking about picking a different time of the year. The first part of the last HP movie (a very very popular series) was released in Nov of 2011 while the second part was released just a few months later in the summer of 2012. The first part made 955 million dollars WW (which is a lot of money) but the second part made 1.3 billion dollars WW. That's basically 400 million more dollars because a simple change in months (yes, its helped by it being the last movie of the series). I think the facts are what they are in that movies put out during the summer months as a whole tend to end up with more money made than movies put out in Nov/Dec.

1 Avatar Fox $2,782.3 $760.5 27.3% $2,021.8 72.7% 2009^ 2 Titanic Par. $2,185.4 $658.7 30.1% $1,526.7 69.9% 1997^ 3 Marvel's The Avengers BV $1,511.8 $623.4 41.2% $888.4 58.8% 2012 4 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $1,328.1 $381.0 28.7% $947.1 71.3% 2011 5 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $1,123.7 $352.4 31.4% $771.4 68.6% 2011 6 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King NL $1,119.9 $377.8 33.7% $742.1 66.3% 2003^ 7 The Dark Knight Rises WB $1,081.0 $448.1 41.5% $632.9 58.5% 2012 8 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $1,066.2 $423.3 39.7% $642.9 60.3% 2006 9 Toy Story 3 BV $1,063.2 $415.0 39.0% $648.2 61.0% 2010 10 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides BV $1,043.9 $241.1 23.1% $802.8 76.9% 2011 11 Skyfall Sony $1,032.8 $299.3 29.0% $733.5 71.0% 2012 12 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $1,027.0 $474.5 46.2% $552.5 53.8% 1999^ 13 Alice in Wonderland (2010) BV $1,024.3 $334.2 32.6% $690.1 67.4% 2010 14 The Dark Knight WB $1,004.6 $534.9 53.2% $469.7 46.8% 2008^ 15 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone WB $974.8 $317.6 32.6% $657.2 67.4% 2001 16 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End BV $963.4 $309.4 32.1% $654.0 67.9% 2007 17 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 WB $956.4 $296.0 30.9% $660.4 69.1% 2010 18 The Lion King BV $951.6 $422.8 44.4% $528.8 55.6% 1994^ 19 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix WB $939.9 $292.0 31.1% $647.9 68.9% 2007 20 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince WB $934.4 $302.0 32.3% $632.5 67.7% 2009

Tol Eressea

Jan 15 2013, 3:37pm

Post #81 of 88 (131 views)
Wait a minute... ;) [In reply to] Can't Post

The last Harry Potter was in 3D, the 2nd to last wasn't. And like you said, being the last one helped, too. Those two are the major factors here, not the summer release.

Btw, Harry Potter 3 was the first time they moved the franchise from winter to summer and it was the least grossing Harry Potter. Or Narnia, when it moved from winter to summer - huge decline. I'm not suggesting that's the sole reason for the decline but it's not as easy as "move something to summer and it makes more money".

Yes, most movies in the top 20 are summer releases because most tentpoles get released in the summer.

Look, i'm not saying summer absolutely has no effect, studios try to release their biggest movies around some holidays, like Memorial Day, Independence Day, but i think its effect is overrated and it's not exclusively summer anymore. Big movies also get released around Thanksgiving and Christmas for instance.

A good movie (plus well marketed) finds its audience.


Jan 15 2013, 4:06pm

Post #82 of 88 (126 views)
You are right [In reply to] Can't Post

I think that whether a movie is released in summer or winter doesn't make a difference in the end. Summer movies tend to make a lot more money in the first week or two and then fizz out. However, winter movies are more steady in their gross. At the end of the day, people who want to watch the film will watch it and those who don't want to watch it, won't.

Sam: Trust a Brandybuck and a Took.
Merry: What? That was just a detour, a shortcut.
Sam: Shortcut to what?
Pippin: Mushrooms!


Jan 15 2013, 4:35pm

Post #83 of 88 (129 views)
I do believe 110% time of the year matters [In reply to] Can't Post

Yes, it having 3D might help but I don't think it helped to the tune of 400 million more dollars. Allowing fans and families more time during the summer pays off big time for very popular or potentially popular movies like HP, Marvel, DC, etc

As I said though and even you just stated there is a reason why most big movies get released during the Summer. Because again its when at least here in the US most people have the most times to go see a movie. Living in the US myself I have a pretty good idea of this fact. Just sayin...

I agree some do get released around those Holidays. Its usually due to it not being something that is considered a big summer blockbuster or the studios don't want it competing against the other big summer movies. There is a method to the madness and so they have to pick the time they think they can maximize the movie goer and get them to see the movie. I'll be very curious to see how Thor 2 does later this year when its released in the latter part of the year instead of the first part. As far as the Narnia movies that was a dumb idea to be honest. It was a cash grab try to get more people due to the summer time being easier for those in the states at least to see movies and it failed because the Narnia movies I think are looked at as more a X-mas time movie.

I don't disagree that you can't have big releases in Nov/Dec area but as a whole your movies that tend to end up at the top end of the BO numbers for the year land in summer because the movie going public just has more time in the summer months (at least here in the US).

At this point we're beating a dead horse. lol We're on opposite sides basically. I think you're of the mind that the time of year plays little into it and I'm of the mind it helps a lot of when a movie is placed. I think it takes a really good movie to do well outside of the summer months here in the US and WW for that matter. If you go through the top 100 films all-time at the BO the numbers show that.

That's where I end my participation with you on this issue. :)

(This post was edited by Elessar on Jan 15 2013, 4:35pm)


Jan 15 2013, 4:51pm

Post #84 of 88 (124 views)
Biggest difference [In reply to] Can't Post

That's the biggest difference. Movies in the summer are front loaded because familes have more time to go see them before the next big thing comes out. Its also why the shelf life of a movie in the summer is generally shorter than a movie released in the fall/winter of the year. One time of the year has more competition and one has less but the counter side of it people have more time in the summer months (no school, vacations) than in the fall/winter (school starting and have to wait until Christmas time for time off).

If I'm putting out a movie that kind tends to be a tentpole movie I want it out in the summer where I can get the most bang for my buck (especially if its a comic book movie or action movie). Some movies are just better designed to be out in the fall/winter months (The Lord of the Rings, The Hobbit, Narnia) while some are better for Summer (Iron Man, The Avengers, Batman, Superman, Spidey).

Look at some of the 2012 and the release dates and the top 10 of that year(US Release dates)

The Avengers 1.5 Billion - May 4
MIB 3 624 Million - May 25th
Madagascar 3 742 Million - June 8th
The Amazing Spider-Man 752 Million - July 3
Ice Age CD 875 Million - July 13
The Dark Knight Rises 1.081 Billion - July 20

The Hunger Games 686 Million - March 23

Fall/Winter (Sept/Dec)
Skyfall 1.032 Billion - Nov 9th
Twilight BD P2 822 Million - Nov 16th
The Hobbit 886 Million - Dec 14th

As you can see more movies ended up in the top 10 of 2012 from the summer months. Because familes have more time to take kids to see some of those movies. You put them out in other times and they're going to do less because familes have times to do less. It takes something with a big fan base or special like the four movies you see outside of that to really do big business.

Tol Eressea

Jan 15 2013, 5:38pm

Post #85 of 88 (114 views)
Fallacy in your conclusion [In reply to] Can't Post

Seems like you are not quite done yet beating the dead horse. Wink

In Reply To
As you can see more movies ended up in the top 10 of 2012 from the summer months. Because familes have more time to take kids to see some of those movies.

Put most tentpoles in the summer and you are gonna naturally end up with the top 20 list dominated by summer releases.

Ice Age & Madagascar have done just fine outside the summer. The Hunger Games was huge in the US, it's the number 3 movie of the year. Overseas the books aren't as popular but i assume that's gonna change by the time the sequel comes out. Star Trek (a summer release) was similar in that sense, it just isn't as popular overseas. Twilight (as well as Harry Potter) have been released alternately in summer and winter and they have always done about the same for the most part. They have their fixed audience.

So in conclusion, still disagreeing with you. Wink

But you make a good point about competition, which is fierce in the summer and i'd say negate a lot of the advantage summer movies may have.

(This post was edited by Estel78 on Jan 15 2013, 5:42pm)


Jan 15 2013, 6:02pm

Post #86 of 88 (101 views)
Of course you'd think so [In reply to] Can't Post

I was commenting with the other person. I've moved on from our discussion. Tongue

Tol Eressea

Jan 15 2013, 6:05pm

Post #87 of 88 (100 views)
Addendum [In reply to] Can't Post

I know the post was not directed at me but i'm still in the room. Wink

Okay, before anyone gets edgy, this is my last post on this matter.


Jan 15 2013, 6:12pm

Post #88 of 88 (114 views)
No edge lol [In reply to] Can't Post

Its a discussion. No harm. No foul. Its all good. Cool

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