Mainly because we have very little idea what will be in The Desolation of Smaug. At least we know that the climax of There and Back Again will be the BO5A - and that will be spectacular. As for An Unexpected Journey, I'm a little concerned over the film ending so soon. I can't imagine it will capture that many people ...
I have a sneaky suspicion that it may be over hyped as ROTK was. For me, The Fellowship of the Ring was *by far* the best of the LOTR trilogy, and I usually tend to think the same of the first film in any series (as terrible as I think the prequel Star Wars films are, The Phantom Meance was at least moderately bearable to watch). So based on that, I'm expecting AUJ to be the best.
If Peter holds true to form, then the first one....
[In reply to]
FOTR was closer to the books and then he started deviating from it far too much as he went along, until he let his horror film-geek take over and things got just a little too campy for my taste (flaming Denethor and stair-surfing Leggie, anyone?)
Though i thought FOTR was by far the best of the three LOTR movies. The reason i am not sticking to the first being the best is i think the change from 2-3 films will have more impact on AUJ and i PJ will have more time to work on TABA with hopefully enough time to tell the story of ME he wants without having to cram everything in/reduce sections like i felt ROTK did in parts.
But really i guess i could vote AUJ - i dunno, havent seen them yet, haha.