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Estel78
Tol Eressea
Dec 18 2014, 1:42pm
Post #1 of 24
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North America early Wednesday estimates $24-25m
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If those are correct and i have no reason to believe they deviate much from eventual actuals, we might have another disappointing North American gross on our hands. According to my calculations, BOFA will come short of DOS, the question is by how much. My early extrapolations have it finish with $230-250m. Granted, they are based on one day, but i'm pretty confident in them. Hope i'm wrong, though.
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NecromancerRising
Gondor
Dec 18 2014, 1:51pm
Post #2 of 24
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These numbers are for Wednesday only?
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"You cannot find peace by avoiding life"
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Estel78
Tol Eressea
Dec 18 2014, 1:55pm
Post #3 of 24
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Wednesday including previews / midnights //
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macfalk
Valinor
Dec 18 2014, 2:01pm
Post #4 of 24
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BOM predicts it will make more than DOS
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http://boxofficemojo.com/.../?id=3979&p=.htm
"If it winds up near that level, that will put it on pace to earn well over $250 million total, which would be a solid result for this franchise finale."
"Still, this virtually guarantees that The Battle of the Five Armies opens above The Fellowship of the Ring, which earned $75 million over the same period back in 2001."
The greatest adventure is what lies ahead.
(This post was edited by macfalk on Dec 18 2014, 2:04pm)
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NecromancerRising
Gondor
Dec 18 2014, 2:04pm
Post #5 of 24
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Thuesday:11.2
Wednesday: 24-25(Estimate)
Thursday: ?
Friday: ?
Saturday: ?
Sunday: ?
And DOS started on a Friday with Thursday being the equal of BOFA'S Thuesday but in the case of BOFA it was about 3.5 million ahead of DOS in that day right?
"You cannot find peace by avoiding life"
(This post was edited by NecromancerRising on Dec 18 2014, 2:06pm)
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Estel78
Tol Eressea
Dec 18 2014, 2:07pm
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Your quote talks about the opening. It will likely outopen FOTR's first 5-day gross but not by a lot. However, BOFA's legs will be nowhere near FOTR's.
EDIT:
Okay, you added another quote. About that one, with a 24-25m wednesday, i highly doubt BOFA will make $100m on its first five days, more like $85m. To their defense, they wrote that before knowing the wednesday gross.
(This post was edited by Estel78 on Dec 18 2014, 2:12pm)
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macfalk
Valinor
Dec 18 2014, 2:14pm
Post #7 of 24
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Surely on Saturday and Sunday it should make a lot of money. I predict 90 million +
The greatest adventure is what lies ahead.
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NecromancerRising
Gondor
Dec 18 2014, 2:16pm
Post #8 of 24
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a Wednesday with a Friday in which case,we should not, BOFA is 6 millions behind and comparing Thuesday with Thursday,BOFA is 2.5 millions ahead. It is too early for any solid prediction in my opinion.
"You cannot find peace by avoiding life"
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Estel78
Tol Eressea
Dec 18 2014, 2:21pm
Post #9 of 24
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Again, Wednesday includes previews / midnights
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It's more like:
Tuesday (plus Wednesday midnights) 11.2
Wednesday: 13-14
But studios tend to lump all the preview grosses together with the opening day, even though technically, it's more than one day gross.
Thuesday:11.2
Wednesday: 24-25(Estimate)
Thursday: ?
Friday: ?
Saturday: ?
Sunday: ?
And DOS started on a Friday with Thursday being the equal of BOFA'S Thuesday but in the case of BOFA it was about 3.5 million ahead of DOS in that day right?
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NecromancerRising
Gondor
Dec 18 2014, 2:25pm
Post #10 of 24
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So,we have a 2 day of approximately 25m?
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Without even counting the first whole weekend plus Thursday? Hmmm, i believe that once more your predictions including most of the box office sites will fall short.
"You cannot find peace by avoiding life"
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tsmith675
Gondor
Dec 18 2014, 2:27pm
Post #11 of 24
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Obviously DoS had a better opening day. It opened on a weekend. More people go see movies on a weekend rather than in the middle of the week.
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Ham_Sammy
Tol Eressea
Dec 18 2014, 3:26pm
Post #13 of 24
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I have said from the start I think the box office will be lower than the other two. Not bceause it isn't desreving but just because of what is happening to cinema in the United States. People are starting to shy away from cinema in general I think due to cost and other competing entertainment. Also,some cinema chains are hurting for money with the archaic and outdated system of frontloading films by the distribution companies. Essentially they are killing their own market albeit slowly.
Thank you for your questions, now go sod off and do something useful - Martin Freeman Twitter chat 3/1/13
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macfalk
Valinor
Dec 18 2014, 3:31pm
Post #14 of 24
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The greatest adventure is what lies ahead.
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Misty Mountain Hop
Rivendell
Dec 18 2014, 3:47pm
Post #15 of 24
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Hmmm...here's the original address
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2014/12/18/box-office-hobbit-3-opens-with-solid-24m-wednesday/
"Only, you've never done a hard day's work." - Merry
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Estel78
Tol Eressea
Dec 18 2014, 3:52pm
Post #16 of 24
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Because that's what my number crunching tells me ;)
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The Forbes article agrees with me.
ROTK's Wednesday to 5-day total multiplier was 3.6 (123 / 34). If we apply that to BOFA we get 88m for the 5-day. BOFA might be even more frontloaded. Or not - which is what i hope. But chances are probably it's at least as frontloaded as ROTK for the 5-day.
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Avandel
Half-elven
Dec 18 2014, 4:08pm
Post #17 of 24
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Why does anyone compare LOTR numbers when things have changed so much?
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E.g., don't see the point of comparing movies from 10 years ago, because since then there has been a technology explosion for good or bad, as movie studios well know.
Home theaters, streaming, renting-on-the-fly, pirating, discs - IMO to make any meaningful comparison you'd have to factor in some sort of assumed loss (at least in the U.S. where even cars are sold w. DVD players for the back seats) to the home viewing market.
Personally go to a lot less movies - LOL why should I move my lazy self from the comfort and control of the remote unless the movie is SPECIAL? Which BOFA is of course , and hope to get to the local IMAX today.
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Elessar
Valinor
Dec 18 2014, 4:28pm
Post #18 of 24
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I think for a Wednesday opening 24-25 million in December is a solid one. I expect this to be in the 95-100 million this weekend ending around the $265-275 million mark. I think it will do quite well outside the states and hit 1 billion and up to 1.1 billion.
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Avandel
Half-elven
Dec 18 2014, 4:30pm
Post #19 of 24
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And evidently there is something called "threequelitis" e.g. audience fatigue
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http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/dec/05/hobbit-hunger-games-film-trilogies
http://deadline.com/...hise-low-1201292612/
Supposedly. I know I didn't bother to go to Mockingjay and having it split into 2 parts didn't help. But I'd rather wait and see re BOFA through the weekend for the numbers.
I know for myself, not being fond of movie musicals, that LOL I was staring in horror at the "Annie" footage (supposedly another BOFA competitor being released this weekend) that I had to sit through at the marathon viewing .
TRAPPED. Nowhere to run, blocked in by others on all sides unless I wanted to dislodge everyone who had just gotten comfortable. Listening to the stars of the picture gush about how wonderful the actors are, the movie is, and so on....tho the "San Andreas" teaser trailer was fun - yeah!, another disaster film *grins*
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Estel78
Tol Eressea
Dec 18 2014, 4:37pm
Post #20 of 24
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ROTK was released on exactly the same day
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The dates fall on the same days, also. And it was the most frontloaded of the LOTR movies. All reasons why ROTK is a good movie for projecting BOFA's daily patterns, at least initially. BOFA will likely fall off more quickly later, after Holidays are over, since for one it won't get an Oscar boost.
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Avandel
Half-elven
Dec 18 2014, 5:14pm
Post #21 of 24
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Have any number of friends and family who sing "I'm just gonna wait for Netflix"! "ComCast will have it on in a month or so!" "I'm gonna wait for the DVD!" "It's too nasty outside to go to the movies and the malls are so crowded!" "I'm broke and why should I pay movie theater prices when I can watch it at home?"
Granted, some of these movie-goers don't fall into the "highest movie-going demographic" so it's more work to shift them from the house anyway, but re ROTK release period don't think so much viewing choice was available.
I'll bet somewhere out there, some math whiz hired by the industry has developed a factor that estimates the theater loss per U.S. household per year to the home viewing market + the bad economy.
(LOL it would be a detail-loving Hobbit movie fan who is fretting over "statistical accuracy +/- estimated errors" etc.  )
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Ham_Sammy
Tol Eressea
Dec 18 2014, 6:09pm
Post #22 of 24
(344 views)
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There is already concern among the Cable/Satellite industry as Cable/Satellite subscriptions were way off this year and one of the reasons is streaming. People are choosing not to go out when they can pay Netflix $10 a month and watch when they want to.
American culture and habits are changing and it's not only the movies. Evidently more people this year are opting out of the Christmas retail buying than any other year. People are either buying online and they said I think that close to 10% have now decided not to buy at all.
The Economy is taking it's toll across the board and people's entertainment habits are changing for sure. Even at sporting events I would be interested to see the figures as far as individual tickets bought vs. blocks of seats owned or bought by corporate sponsers. The average individual is being priced out of many entertainment options and it doesn't help that the movie industry is stuck in an archaic model.
Thank you for your questions, now go sod off and do something useful - Martin Freeman Twitter chat 3/1/13
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shadowdog
Rohan
Dec 18 2014, 6:44pm
Post #23 of 24
(320 views)
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Well then there are those of us
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Who don't live near a theater. It is 120 miles round trip for me to get to a theater and about $40 for gas for the trip.
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Avandel
Half-elven
Dec 18 2014, 10:17pm
Post #24 of 24
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And *sad* people like me stuck in an urban area forget that a lot of towns have businesses that close at 5 or 6 PM, instead of staying open all night. Tho I guess the trade-off is having plenty of theaters to choose from, tho some of the best are still the two-dollar, second-tier theaters.
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