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noWizardme
Half-elven
Aug 5 2014, 4:33pm
Post #26 of 45
(387 views)
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One confounding factor, perhaps, is that the poll is still open (so the average might move around as more people vote, and now not be what it was calculated to be before)//
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Still, that's a good thing - a bigger sample and all...
~~~~~~
"nowimë I am in the West, Furincurunir to the Dwarves (or at least, to their best friend) and by other names in other lands. Mostly they just say 'Oh no it's him - look busy!' "
Or "Hold off! unhand me, grey-beard loon!"
This year LOTR turns 60. The following image is my LOTR 60th anniversary party footer! You can get yours here: http://newboards.theonering.net/...i?post=762154#762154
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BlackFox
Half-elven
Aug 5 2014, 5:03pm
Post #27 of 45
(383 views)
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My, my, what garboil my innocent little poll has caused! //
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“Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake.” - Henry David Thoreau
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Bracegirdle
Valinor
Aug 5 2014, 6:01pm
Post #28 of 45
(377 views)
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Foxes must be good at garboiling . .
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Thanks for the new word. 
Cheers
BG
*** Waiting for more input so I can do a reapproximazation ***
Cuio i Pheriain anann! Aglar'ni Pheriannath!
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BlackFox
Half-elven
Aug 5 2014, 6:24pm
Post #29 of 45
(376 views)
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Yay, I taught a native speaker a new word! I hope I used it correctly.
“Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake.” - Henry David Thoreau
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grammaboodawg
Immortal
Aug 6 2014, 4:24am
Post #31 of 45
(362 views)
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I haven't done many of the contests
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Most of the time, you have to be a member of facebook or twitter or something... and I'm not active in those. I have gone to Dennys for the previous 2 Middle-earth promos and collected a set of their store promo items (tents, menu, placemat, etc.). I have gotten some of the action figures and Lego sets; but there's little to choose from with The Hobbit films.
I was very active in collecting the restaurant, store items for LotR. The goblets, toys, busts, maps, etc. But there's nothing like that for The Hobbit films... which is hugely negectful of WB. They don't seem to "get" the geek-factor and that we are drawn to those special little treasures.
6th draft of TH:AUJ Geeky Observation List - November 28, 2013
4th draft of TH:DOS Geeky Observation List - May 15, 2014
"There is more in you of good than you know, child of the kindly West."
I'm SO HAPPY these new films take me back to that magical world!!
TIME Google Calendar
TORn's Geeky Observations Lists for LotR and The Hobbit
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Bracegirdle
Valinor
Aug 6 2014, 1:24pm
Post #32 of 45
(347 views)
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Yes, you did. At first glance I thought a garboil
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must be a baby gargoyle or something.
I wonder how many 'native speakers' knew what a garboil was?
“Uva uvam vivendo varia fit."
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BlackFox
Half-elven
Aug 6 2014, 1:42pm
Post #33 of 45
(343 views)
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“Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake.” - Henry David Thoreau
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kernul
Registered User
Aug 6 2014, 9:58pm
Post #34 of 45
(342 views)
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Poll is still open, so the values probably changed.
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Hi Bracegirdle, I think the values have changed since I did a rough estimation of the age. It wasn't a very accurate way to judge the age range, I just did an average (Sum/# of participants).
NoWizardme, I did check out the Pollantir, that's where I found the poll that's raising all these mathematical questions :) Thanks for your help.
I have made a survey on survey monkey, its only 8 questions so takes less than a couple of minutes. If you have the time please click away:
https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/VKB8P53
(This post was edited by kernul on Aug 6 2014, 10:00pm)
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Rembrethil
Tol Eressea
Aug 7 2014, 1:42am
Post #36 of 45
(325 views)
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Maybe a baby *boy* gargoyle, as opposed to 'gargiyle'?
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Call me Rem, and remember, not all who ramble are lost...Uh...where was I?
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dreamflower
Lorien
Aug 7 2014, 3:12am
Post #37 of 45
(324 views)
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I'm not much into collectibles as in actively pursuing them. I have a lot of items that were gifts from various people and are treasured not only because of the Tolkien connection but also for the giver; I prefer for the most part to make my own memorabilia.
The sorts of promotions I'd be more interested in would be fun activities, such as line parties, or as someone else mentioned, something like the Trilogy Tuesday deals. A contest to win a chance to go to a premiere might be nice. I like trivia contests for the fun of it--the prizes wouldn't have to be anything spectacular.
BTW, I am 62. I collect my first Social Security check next week.
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BlackFox
Half-elven
Aug 7 2014, 8:50am
Post #38 of 45
(316 views)
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“Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake.” - Henry David Thoreau
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BlackFox
Half-elven
Aug 7 2014, 8:52am
Post #39 of 45
(315 views)
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“Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake.” - Henry David Thoreau
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DanielLB
Immortal
Aug 7 2014, 3:41pm
Post #40 of 45
(313 views)
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This thread would make a statisticians day, if they saw it.
As has already been reiterated, you can't get a mean from averaging over the ranges. It just doesn't work. There's no mathematical basis behind it. However, I learnt this technique a couple of years ago, which computes which band the true average would fall in to.
Based upon the results as of today:
Age Frequency
00-20 25
20-30 31
30-40 11
40-50 32
50-60 19
60+ 10
128 in total
Already we have problems, because the bands aren't all equal. We'll carry on though.
First, assign values to each response. Since we're looking at ordinal data, the higher the age, the higher the value is assigned to that response.
Age Frequency Value
00-20 25 1
20-30 31 2
30-40 11 3
40-50 32 4
50-60 19 5
60+ 10 6
128 responses in total
Then we multiply the frequency of responses in each category to the value we just assigned to that category (i.e. score = frequency * value)
Age Frequency Value Score
00-20 25 1 25
20-30 31 2 62
30-40 11 3 33
40-50 32 4 128
50-60 19 5 95
60+ 10 6 60
128 in total; 403 in total
Now we can compute the average rating, by dividing the total number of points (403) by the total number of people who answered the question (128).
Average rating = 403/128 = 3.15
This means the average age of this group is somewhere between group 3, 30-40, and group 4, 40-50 (or in other words 30-50), but a lot closer to category 3, 30-40.
Does that make sense?
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DanielLB
Immortal
Aug 7 2014, 3:59pm
Post #41 of 45
(303 views)
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And, actually, a quick way of validating this ...
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Is to create a random dataset.
So, all I did was create a set of random ages for each of the categories. I.e.:
25 random ages between 10-20 (assuming 10 would be the absolute lowest. I can't imagine anyone younger on the forum, though I'm sure there might be).
31 random ages between 20-30
...
...
10 random ages between 60-77 (the average lifespan for an adult living in the UK).
Using this method, you can obviously create many, many different random age arrays.
I created a set of 10 random datasets, these are the averages for each of them:
36.4
37.3
36.4
36.9
36.2
37.1
36.7
36.3
36.1
37.2
Average (and standard deviation) = 36.66 (+/- 0.44) years of age.
This agrees rather nicely with my previous estimate, being between 30-40 years old.
(This post was edited by DanielLB on Aug 7 2014, 4:07pm)
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kernul
Registered User
Aug 7 2014, 8:55pm
Post #43 of 45
(285 views)
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Thanks so much DanielLB, I'm going to cut & paste this straight into my presentation and hopefully that'll impress the socks off my examiner ;)
I just hope I know what I'm saying when I do that :)
Thanks for filling out the survey folks. If anybody is interested I'll post the results here in a few days...
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DanielLB
Immortal
Aug 8 2014, 6:08am
Post #44 of 45
(275 views)
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Take a couple of minutes to understand it.
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You'll run into difficulties if you just copy/paste word for word.
If it helps understand it better, think of my method being equivalent to finding the median age range.
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squire
Half-elven
Aug 8 2014, 11:42am
Post #45 of 45
(283 views)
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Don't forget what Nowizardme pointed out, though
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As he said, the data are 'double-humped', that is they cluster around two groups: younger people (teens and young 20s) and middle-aged people (40s to 60s), with a noticeable shortfall in, roughly, the late 20s to early 40s.
The speculation was that that population is too busy with family and careers to spend much time on the 'net talking Tolkien, but who knows if that is right.
In any case, with such a data set both the mean and median, as measures of central tendency, do not convey the essence of the survey very well at all. To say that the average or median age is late 30s suggests to any audience that most respondents are around that age, and that's exactly the opposite of what the data actually tell us. Just your pointing that out before your critics do might be helpful in your presentation.
squire online:
RR Discussions: The Valaquenta, A Shortcut to Mushrooms, and Of Herbs and Stewed Rabbit
Lights! Action! Discuss on the Movie board!: 'A Journey in the Dark'. and 'Designing The Two Towers'.
Footeramas: The 3rd & 4th TORn Reading Room LotR Discussion and NOW the 1st BotR Discussion too! and "Tolkien would have LOVED it!"
squiretalk introduces the J.R.R. Tolkien Encyclopedia: A Reader's Diary
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