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Misty Mountain Hop
Rivendell
Jun 25 2014, 2:52pm
Post #1 of 7
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Marketing power - How does it work?
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Something came across my mind today regarding the immediate success or failure of a movie within the span of the opening weekend. Now before I move on, I do want to admit that, while box office numbers don’t truly represent the success of a film, they do have a tremendous bit of leverage on how the world will perceive it.
The idea first came to mind when I thought of how the TV shows are rated throughout an episode. For instance, Game of Thrones gets a rating after the show is finished based on how many people watch it and for how long and those kinds of things. One can see a general rising pattern throughout the season in terms of millions of viewers. Now, it's hard for me to believe that this number can really have a drastic change in the middle of an episode. Of those 8 million viewers, there's a certain number that will watch it no matter what because they are true fans. There will also be a chunk of new viewers, and some casual as well. But the idea of the ratings skyrocketing based on an out-of-this-world episode doesn't seem likely. Is it really possible that people who are on Twitter or social media hear about this amazing GoT episode in progress so they turn it over to HBO (if they have it) and watch the rest? Spoilers and all?
In the same way, is it really that possible for the Hobbit to get such a huge lift from early screenings and midnight showings that the buzz will be large enough to get MILLIONS of people to randomly hit up the theater over the weekend? No doubt there will be a fluctuation with the possible opening numbers, but nothing over the top. Let's say it's projected to make $80 million opening weekend. It might only make $55-60, or it could make $95. But I don't see it randomly shooting up to $150-170. By the time the showing begin, I'm convinced that whatever happened in making the movie and marketing will show in the box office regardless of how good the reactions are within the first day or two. Can that many millions of people change their mind and see the film they originally had no interest in? The marketing and build up to the film is where the large dollars are made up. Once the opening sequence starts, the final numbers are set, give or take a little.
My point is, for these types of movies, ones that are in franchises and have a large following with some new followers as well, I don't see anything too unpredictable happening, not just with numbers, but with ratings as well.
Even if The Hobbit had the greatest marketing campaign of all time, the best trailer ever paired with the finest music and acting, to me it would still make about the same dollars in the theater and have a solid positive scoring. I don't think that it's going to go out and make $180 million and $1.7 overall with an IMDB rating of 8.9, like Lord of the Rings.
For most people, there's already a preconceived notion in their head as to whether they are going to see it or not, whether they are going to like it or not, and whether their friends are interested. Regardless as to how good it is, I know my sisters and parents won't see it. I know that many millions of people around the world won't see it no matter what. Again, there will be fluctuations, but I just don't see them being large enough to make a huge difference. That being said, I am looking forward to the final film and hope it will blow us away!
Now this may be no surprise to many of you, but I thought I would put my thoughts out there and see what some people have to say regarding this. It doesn't matter to me how they are rated by critics and fans, I will always love Tolkien and Peter! Thanks for reading!
"Only, you've never done a hard day's work." - Merry
(This post was edited by Misty Mountain Hop on Jun 25 2014, 3:06pm)
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Name
Rohan
Jun 25 2014, 3:19pm
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I agree with your point regarding GoT 100%. TV shows aren't going to get lots of new viewers because one episode in the whatever season is supposed to be good.
But it's completely different with movies like TH. Especially in the opening weekend. Opening weekends show how many people really want to see the movie. So, in theory, if the movie is just so phenomenal and has such great hype, lots of people will go see it the opening weekend, because they don't want to wait to see it later in time.
It's not about millions of people just randomly wanting to see it. It's about millions of people wanting to see it earlier than usual. And it's also about drawing in new viewers who are either completely new or just haven't bothered to see any of the previous movies in the theater.
And that's why a effective marketing campaign is so important, along with positive reviews early on. They want to motivate people, get them excited.
How many Tolkien fans does it take to change a light bulb?
"Change? Oh my god, what do you mean change?! Never, never, never......"
(This post was edited by Name on Jun 25 2014, 3:22pm)
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DaughterofLaketown
Gondor
Jun 25 2014, 4:54pm
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In some ways I think that TV shows because of this have an unfair advantage
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Over feature films. They have more time to build an audience and more chances to pull people in. A movie gets a shot when it premiers and if it leant do well then usually it all goes downhill. Rental sales never won't be enough after its released, and DVD sales will also be minimal as well. Eventually if it was the beginning of a franchise like Eragon or Inkheart the sequels never get made because the return isn't worth it.
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Elizabeth
Half-elven
Jun 25 2014, 6:36pm
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Opening weekend vs. the rest of the run
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Opening weekend is special. As you say, "it's not about millions of people just randomly wanting to see it. It's about millions of people wanting to see it earlier than usual. And it's also about drawing in new viewers who are either completely new or just haven't bothered to see any of the previous movies in the theater. And that's why a effective marketing campaign is so important, along with positive reviews early on. They want to motivate people, get them excited."
So, the opening weekend numbers are affected by pent-up demand (e.g. fans of the genre or franchise) plus marketing efforts. Thereafter, though, other factors come into play, such as reviews, word-of-mouth (especially on social media), and repeat viewings. The latter have especially benefited LotR and TH. In particular, repeat viewings were the major factor that sent RotK into orbit.
DOS had a poor opening weekend in the US due to exceptionally bad weather. It recovered somewhat, but not entirely.
(This post was edited by Elizabeth on Jun 25 2014, 6:38pm)
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adt100
Rohan
Jun 25 2014, 10:21pm
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Indeed repeat viewings are the key in movies
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It's this that gets the big figures and ultimately decides how not a success such a movie is, regardless of marketing. Obviously opening weekend/week figures are fairly well predicted as the OP says and this will be due to factors of marketing and previous experience with a franchise in this case. After that repeat viewings are vital for the numbers to really shoot up. Then of course the higher the figures, the longer a theatre will play a film thus continuing the marketing and awareness of a film.
Not all films successes are marketing led hough in the first instance. Look at the performance of Titantic. Not that brilliant at first but through word of mouth it garnered momentum and thus began getting more and more repeat viewings to become the runaway box office success it was.
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Kim
Valinor
Jun 26 2014, 3:28am
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Well, one thing to consider around the timing of movie marketing is that if a trailer is released early, with a couple more as the release date gets closer, it could spark the interest of someone who wasn't interested before, or hadn't even heard of the last 2 movies, and give them time to rent the previous movies before the 3rd comes out. For example, I have a friend who hasn't seen Rise of the Planet of the Apes even though I've recommended it to her (and we have similar taste in movies), but when she saw the latest trailer for the next one, she's suddenly a lot more interested. And if the buzz from previews and midnight shows is big enough, yes, it could be enough to get someone to go see the movie. And if the movie doesn't get that buzz, it could be pulled from a theater before the next weekend.
For tv shows, the hype around a highly rated episode could be enough to get someone to start watching the show. For example, I'd never heard of Game of Thrones until a certain character was killed in the 2nd to last episode of the 1st season, then read an article full of the buzz about it. That caused me to read the books, go back and catch up on the episodes, then start watching them live and discussing with other people. There's also the difference in advertising ie the cost of ads shown during the shows are directly related the viewing numbers. But to your point, no, I don't think someone is going to drop everything and start watching in the middle of an episode.
However, as you say, there are some people who won't go see them regardless of marketing because it's just not the type of story they're interested in. But the whole concept of marketing (and sales) is to get you to watch/buy something you didn't even know you wanted until someone told you, right? 
"Jagatud rõõm on topelt rõõm - a shared joy is a double joy". ~Estonian saying
“As such, you will address His Majesty as His Majesty, the Lord of Silver Fountains, the King of Carven Stone, the King Beneath the Mountain, the Lion of Erebor, the High King of the Dwarves, the True Treasure of Erebor, the Face that Launched 10,000 Sighs, or Thorin the Majestic..."
http://newboards.theonering.net/...forum_view_collapsed
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Aragorn the Elfstone
Tol Eressea
Jun 26 2014, 3:52am
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The ratings increase doesn't happen in the middle of an episode...
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...it happens the next week for the following episode. That's why you always see GoT get a huge ratings spike the week AFTER something big has happened. People hear about the show through the buzz generated through some big event, and spend the next week catching up on the show (or, at least, the season). Then the ratings rise for the next episode.
"When I became a man I put away childish things, including the fear of childishness and the desire to be very grown up."
- C.S. Lewis
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