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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
Final Spurt: The Box Office of DOS (Part Two)
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Lieutenant of Dol Guldur
Gondor


Mar 6 2014, 12:27pm

Post #1 of 61 (1319 views)
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Final Spurt: The Box Office of DOS (Part Two) Can't Post

This is the answer to a thread of mine Final Spurt: The Box Office of DOS which I made exactly one month ago:
http://newboards.theonering.net/...est=103937217#712192


So we now have reached the March and DOS is still in cinemas, the home release is in reach and the movie still makes a little bit of money. The film is released in Japan and China and their numbers aren't bad at all. Especially China looks very good for now. I still think it's certain that DOS won't reach the 1 billion mark unless something happens… something unexpected but it's very likable to pass the $950 million and that would be a very, very great number for Peter, Warner and all team members. And to have some of the latest numbers at one look:

-----------------------------------------------------
Total gross United States after 82 Days:
$257,010,760
Total gross United States after 82 Days (AUJ):
$296,541,937 (-$39,531,177)
-----------------------------------------------------
Total gross United States:
$257,010,760
Total gross United States (AUJ):
$303,003,568 (-$43,479,564)
Total gross United States (FOTR):
$315,544,750 (-$58,533,990)
Total gross United States (TTT):
$342,551,365 (-$85,540,605)
Total gross United States (ROTK):
$377,845,905 (-$120,835,145)
-----------------------------------------------------
Total gross Worldwide:
$922,310,760
Total gross Worldwide (AUJ)
$1,017,003,568 (-$94,692,808)
Total gross Worldwide (FOTR)
$871,530,324 (+$16,732,808)
Total gross Worldwide (TTT)
$926,047,111 (-$2,736,351)
Total gross Worldwide (ROTK)
$1,119,929,521 (-$197,618,761)
-----------------------------------------------------

So after passing the $900 million mark DOS also left FOTRs worldwide numbers behind and is about to pass TTT as well… which would make DOS the third most successful Middle-earth movie according to the box office numbers. And it's already number four of 2013 behind "Despicable Me 2", "Fronzen" and "Iron Man 3". How can that be a flop??

I would call it a huge financial success since the reviews of AUJ (from both fans and critics) weren't that great. Many people predicted DOS final box office some place around $ 800 million. I'm pretty sure it will reach the 950million at the end of March and perhaps more?… Just keep flying Smaug! Wink

"There is only one Lord of the Ring, only one who can bend it to his will. And he does not share power."


Ham_Sammy
Tol Eressea

Mar 6 2014, 2:07pm

Post #2 of 61 (605 views)
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A very respectable Hobbit [In reply to] Can't Post

Indeed! Cool

Thank you for your questions, now go sod off and do something useful - Martin Freeman Twitter chat 3/1/13


Imladris18
Lorien


Mar 6 2014, 2:12pm

Post #3 of 61 (585 views)
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Excellent post. [In reply to] Can't Post

Thanks for putting this together. Good info.

It's not a flop, any way you slice it. It's just not ROTK numbers, but I don't think it ever could've been.

This is a general remark, not just regarding The Hobbit, but I'm also not sure why home video sales aren't also used as an indicator as well, as those sales put up much higher numbers than I thought before actually looking into it. It seems less and less people are about going to the theater and dropping $30 to see a movie once when they can wait a few months, pay half that, and own the movie forever.



Avandel
Valinor

Mar 6 2014, 3:32pm

Post #4 of 61 (544 views)
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True enough [In reply to] Can't Post

Of course the fans would be out in droves no matter what, but I have plenty of friends and family who rarely go to a movie, opting to "wait for Netflix". And I still wonder why the changes in home viewing since LOTR never seem to get factored in - e.g. how many more people have huge TVs, streaming etc. which all make viewing at home a preferred option in many cases. I wouldn't pay theater prices for a modest little character movie at this point.
Has to be something worth a big screen.

Like DOS of course. Think DOS rentals will be explosive as well as DVD/BR sales, so as far as WB is concerned the Hobbit movies were well worth the investment$$$.

I wonder if TABA could actually beat the Hunger Games in December? HG is supposed to be the most anticipated movie, but it's a 2-parter, and that can annoy people who may "wait until both movies are out". And I didn't enjoy this last one as much as the first, and didn't like the third book as well, so I'll be opting out of HG unless dragged by friends. Whereas TABA has all these selling points including being the climax of a a trilogy *tears*


tsmith675
Gondor


Mar 6 2014, 3:53pm

Post #5 of 61 (553 views)
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So DoS is going to be the 3rd highest grossing ME film [In reply to] Can't Post

And don't even bring up inflation to me. DoS still made more money than FotR and (will make more than) TTT.

"This day we FIGHT!"


Loresilme
Valinor


Mar 6 2014, 4:47pm

Post #6 of 61 (505 views)
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Thanks for the details [In reply to] Can't Post

Thank you for pulling all the figures together. I'm happy for PJ and company for DOS to have done so well.


bungobaggins
Lorien

Mar 6 2014, 5:54pm

Post #7 of 61 (489 views)
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Yeah! [In reply to] Can't Post


In Reply To
And don't even bring up inflation to me.


Let's just ignore things like economics and reality! Cool


Elessar
Valinor


Mar 6 2014, 6:08pm

Post #8 of 61 (475 views)
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Inflation [In reply to] Can't Post

It is what it is. Everything has gone up over the years. Its neat to see how old movies would do based on today's dollar. I just find the well this movie wasn't as successful because of inflation. We're paying today's dollar not 2001 dollar. If we were I don't think I'd be paying $3.30 a gallon for gas.



Glorfindela
Valinor


Mar 6 2014, 6:40pm

Post #9 of 61 (452 views)
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TABA [In reply to] Can't Post

I think TABA should beat HG outside the US (unless something goes badly wrong with TABA). Wink


(This post was edited by Glorfindela on Mar 6 2014, 6:41pm)


tsmith675
Gondor


Mar 6 2014, 7:16pm

Post #10 of 61 (442 views)
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No. The fact is, [In reply to] Can't Post

DoS made more than the other two. I'm just speaking pure numbers. That's the reality.

"This day we FIGHT!"


tsmith675
Gondor


Mar 6 2014, 7:19pm

Post #11 of 61 (419 views)
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Pure numbers [In reply to] Can't Post

It made more. Just like Avatar and Titanic are the highest grossing films of all time. Inflation doesn't affect that.

"This day we FIGHT!"

(This post was edited by tsmith675 on Mar 6 2014, 7:21pm)


Imladris18
Lorien


Mar 6 2014, 7:28pm

Post #12 of 61 (416 views)
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Well, yes, but the dollar's "worth" was higher back then. [In reply to] Can't Post

This is factored in by adjusting for inflation. Yes, the actual dollar amount is higher, and you can mark that as a little arbitrary victory in your mind, but that particular statistic is not indicative of how much of people's "worth" actually went towards the tickets when directly comparing grosses from 13 years ago.

I'm a huge Hobbit fan and want nothing but its success, but THIS is the reality. Did The Hobbit films make as much or more "units of worth" than LotR? No, but it doesn't matter because The Hobbit movies still made a heck of a lot of "units of worth."



(This post was edited by Imladris18 on Mar 6 2014, 7:31pm)


tsmith675
Gondor


Mar 6 2014, 7:36pm

Post #13 of 61 (394 views)
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If you ask anyone which made more, what are they going to say?// [In reply to] Can't Post

 

"This day we FIGHT!"


Elessar
Valinor


Mar 6 2014, 8:06pm

Post #14 of 61 (380 views)
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I agree [In reply to] Can't Post

I think you missed the point of what I was saying.



tsmith675
Gondor


Mar 6 2014, 8:08pm

Post #15 of 61 (380 views)
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I actually didn't mean to reply that to you [In reply to] Can't Post

My bad, man!

"This day we FIGHT!"


Imladris18
Lorien


Mar 6 2014, 8:12pm

Post #16 of 61 (376 views)
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I'd ask if they want the more relevant adjusted value, or dollar amount :) [In reply to] Can't Post

 



tsmith675
Gondor


Mar 6 2014, 8:24pm

Post #17 of 61 (367 views)
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Touché ;) [In reply to] Can't Post

 

"This day we FIGHT!"


Tim
Tol Eressea


Mar 6 2014, 8:31pm

Post #18 of 61 (379 views)
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It's not that simple [In reply to] Can't Post


In Reply To
This is factored in by adjusting for inflation. Yes, the actual dollar amount is higher, and you can mark that as a little arbitrary victory in your mind, but that particular statistic is not indicative of how much of people's "worth" actually went towards the tickets when directly comparing grosses from 13 years ago.

I'm a huge Hobbit fan and want nothing but its success, but THIS is the reality. Did The Hobbit films make as much or more "units of worth" than LotR? No, but it doesn't matter because The Hobbit movies still made a heck of a lot of "units of worth."


An argument could be made that because folks are paying more ($3.00+ a gallon for gas in the States is NOT due to inflation) for other things that any dollars spent on non-necessities are worth more. A dollar to any family has variable worth. Heh heh. And this is why economics is still a soft science.

Arthur: What manner of man are you that can summon up fire without flint or tinder?
Tim: I... am an enchanter.
Arthur: By what name are you known?
Tim: There are some who call me... 'Tim'...?
Arthur: ...greetings, Tim the Enchanter.


Imladris18
Lorien


Mar 6 2014, 8:38pm

Post #19 of 61 (367 views)
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Of course it's not *that* simple, but it's still the concept. [In reply to] Can't Post

The price of gas has increased at a higher rate than inflation, yes, but there are also things that have gone the opposite way, like electronics.



patrickk
Rohan

Mar 6 2014, 8:46pm

Post #20 of 61 (410 views)
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I think there is another... [In reply to] Can't Post

...$30m in China (to give 3 times the opening weekend: many places have 4 times), and Japan is still very early days (another $10m there at least), so well north of $950 is assured methinks (~$970m), so maybe not enough ooomph left for the $1b mark. As I said yonks ago 'a near run thing' (to quote Wellington)


glor
Rohan

Mar 6 2014, 9:12pm

Post #21 of 61 (350 views)
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Dollars worth or exchange rate [In reply to] Can't Post

would affect the International gross;

10 GBP with an exchange rate of 2 US$ to 1GBP =$20
10 GBP with and exchange rate of 1.5 US $ to 1 GBP =$15
(theoretically for example only)

Nice round figures but £10 is the average price of a 2D cinema ticket in my part of the world, that exchange rate difference is $5 lost on the price of every ticket when it comes to international totals. This means the global box office only reflects the total amount in US $ a film has taken at the box office, not the total number of posteriors on seats. It is therefore possible that more people went to see DOS worldwide than AUJ but DOS took less at the Box office because of a different exchange rate, theoretically speaking.

Now for some facts:

Back when LOTR came out the retail exchange of the US $ to the GBP was roughly $2 to £1, I worked for a Bureau de Change at the time and the rate was high, now the rate is around $1.6 to £1, convert that into billions and that difference could have a far greater impact over a decade than inflation.

Just a thought.


(This post was edited by glor on Mar 6 2014, 9:13pm)


Annatar598
Rohan


Mar 6 2014, 10:36pm

Post #22 of 61 (334 views)
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It's simple accounting 101 [In reply to] Can't Post

There's a reason why numbers are recorded the way they are... I think It's better to NOT adjust for inflation.

"[Annatar598] is an overzealous apologist [for PJ]" - Certain TORn member.

Really? Alright...

Well, proud to be one I guess.

(This post was edited by Annatar598 on Mar 6 2014, 10:36pm)


bungobaggins
Lorien

Mar 6 2014, 11:02pm

Post #23 of 61 (322 views)
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Yes! [In reply to] Can't Post

The REALity is that inflation is real and should be accounted for! Cool

Couple that with the increase of regular movie ticket prices, plus the onset of higher priced 3D/IMAX/HFR tickets! Cool




Kendalf
Rohan


Mar 6 2014, 11:10pm

Post #24 of 61 (314 views)
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Adjusting is only fair [In reply to] Can't Post


In Reply To
I think It's better to NOT adjust for inflation.


Sorry, Annatar598, I'm not picking on you. You're just the last post :-)

I think it's absolutely essential to adjust for inflation if one is hoping to get any sort of balanced and comprehensive overview of a film's success. If you don't then, surprise surprise, it's always the most recent smash-hits that make it to the top of the charts because people are now handing over 25 to 30 times as much to see them (in 2014) as they used to (say, in 1935).

I may have missed it; has anyone compared the adjusted grosses for all five films so far?

"I have walked there sometimes, beyond the forest and up into the night. I have seen the world fall away and the white light of forever fill the air."


Kendalf
Rohan


Mar 6 2014, 11:12pm

Post #25 of 61 (311 views)
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Yes [In reply to] Can't Post


In Reply To
Couple that with the increase of regular movie ticket prices, plus the onset of higher priced 3D/IMAX/HFR tickets!


Absolutely.

"I have walked there sometimes, beyond the forest and up into the night. I have seen the world fall away and the white light of forever fill the air."

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