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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
Forecast ' smaug' poised to open lower than first Hobbit

The Shire

Dec 13 2013, 10:41am

Post #1 of 12 (734 views)
Forecast ' smaug' poised to open lower than first Hobbit Can't Post

Thats the headline on Box Office Mojo, Around the $70.9 million mark!
World wide they also state that it will take less also and end up with $600 million!
What does every one think?


Dec 13 2013, 10:50am

Post #2 of 12 (436 views)
They are on crack [In reply to] Can't Post

This will make more than AUJ, but not sure by how much. It will be a billion dollar film easily though


Dec 13 2013, 10:50am

Post #3 of 12 (426 views)
Is the figure you are quoting just for North America? [In reply to] Can't Post

($70.9). I have seen higher forecasts, though Box Office Mojo seem determined to forecast this as a relative 'failure'.

The Shire

Dec 13 2013, 10:56am

Post #4 of 12 (410 views)
This is the link [In reply to] Can't Post


Yes $70.9 million is for North American opening only!
$600 million is the number without the domestic boxoffice figures!
So Plus the $250 to $270 for the box office for north america Estimate!
It will not finish with a Billion worldwide total.
I would say it will hit a billion worldwide, so i feel their estimates are a bit low!

(This post was edited by Eadignes on Dec 13 2013, 11:05am)


Dec 13 2013, 11:02am

Post #5 of 12 (380 views)
Well [In reply to] Can't Post

I don't know anything about opening weekend, as it is the final gross that matters, but it will gross more than AUJ. Opening weekends? I don't see the point on opening weekends, but it may open low? Dunno

The Shire

Dec 13 2013, 11:10am

Post #6 of 12 (380 views)
the reason i think might be,,,,, [In reply to] Can't Post

Where as the Hobbit AUJ had a lot of advertising here in the UK ....DOS has had very little .....although seemingly more internet advertising....there has virtually been no tv adverts i have seen where for AUJ there were a lot more.....I dont know if anyone knows if they have reduced the budget for promoting it or not.....also there has been no Premier in the UK.....they had one last year.....where tv news companies would have the premier on their news broadcasts its very strange i see little promotion for it which is strange ........Initially i suspect it will open lower than AUJ....but as word gets out about it ultimately it will grow past AUJ in the UK that is......well lets hope so ...


Dec 13 2013, 11:37am

Post #7 of 12 (337 views)
Not sure about that, [In reply to] Can't Post

I've seen quite alot of DOS advertising in the UK - Buses, Bus stops, bill boards etc. They also played a tv spot during the Im A Celeb final and during x factor on Saturday - prime time advertising slots.

Lieutenant of Dol Guldur

Dec 13 2013, 1:02pm

Post #8 of 12 (286 views)
It will open lower but will end up higher [In reply to] Can't Post

I guess after AUJ being not so well reviewed by many fans and critics there's a little chance that the DOS opening weekend gross will be higher than AUJ.

BUT after the more positive reviews DOS will earn more money in the end. The majority is going to enjoy this one more than the first one.

I could imagine that DOS will end up with 1,1 billion perhaps even 1,2 billion.

"There is only one Lord of the Ring, only one who can bend it to his will. And he does not share power."


Dec 13 2013, 1:06pm

Post #9 of 12 (298 views)
80+ million according to Hollywood Reporter [In reply to] Can't Post


Sam: Trust a Brandybuck and a Took.
Merry: What? That was just a detour, a shortcut.
Sam: Shortcut to what?
Pippin: Mushrooms!


Dec 13 2013, 2:23pm

Post #10 of 12 (231 views)
This person is lowballing it [In reply to] Can't Post

so they will look good when it overperforms. Every other box office analyst has the film opening at $80+ million and matching AUJ domestically and internationally.

And I have to wonder where this person gets the idea that the movie wasn't well received by audiences. AUJ has and 80+ percent audience approval rating on RT and a very, very respectable 8/10 on imbd. Of course, these could mean nothing, but I think audiences liked it ok.


(This post was edited by demnation on Dec 13 2013, 2:33pm)

The Shire

Dec 13 2013, 4:26pm

Post #11 of 12 (166 views)
thanks :) [In reply to] Can't Post

ahhh havent watched the Im a celebrity final yet ;) .....and dont get out much either ;)....... going to see the film tomorrow (cant wait) and if the majority opinion of people really enjoying it works out i think it will ultimately do better than AUJ through word of mouth.....:)


Dec 13 2013, 4:30pm

Post #12 of 12 (169 views)
There were a lot of empty seats at the showing I attended. [In reply to] Can't Post

Granted, for my smallish town there were about 6 showings in the smallest, least attended theater of town on the east side where everything is going out of business and malls are even going under - and at least one was sold out for sure. But at least one was probably totally empty!

At any rate, it does seem like a bad sign! Also, the general audience rating dropped from 99% "want to see" to 89% "liked it". To some degree, this is a testimony to the wide appeal of the movies, but still, not as much of a storm on the theaters and the movies as I had thought there might be!


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