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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
North America: Could the success of Catching Fire & Frozen hurt DOS?

Estel78
Tol Eressea

Nov 30 2013, 7:08am

Post #1 of 19 (928 views)
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North America: Could the success of Catching Fire & Frozen hurt DOS? Can't Post

Catching Fire's 2nd weekend looks to be a mammoth 70m+, it'll already have amassed close to $300m by Sunday and it's headed towards $400m+. We seem to be having another $70m grosser this weekend - Frozen, and with amazing word of mouth it's apparently getting and cartoons having good legs by nature $300m total for it seems rather likely.

That's a lot of money people are spending on just two movies right now, all that 2 weeks before DOS opens. It might steal its spotlight a little bit, people might not salivate for the next "big thing" as much. On the other hand, a healthy market can be good as well. Time will tell...


Wordofmask
Lorien

Nov 30 2013, 7:28am

Post #2 of 19 (508 views)
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Will see them all [In reply to] Can't Post

Actually i dont think CF and Frozen would hurt DoS as much as the reviews. We will know it very soon on monday. The first wave is the reaction from twitter.


(This post was edited by Wordofmask on Nov 30 2013, 7:29am)


Eledhwen
Forum Admin / Moderator


Nov 30 2013, 7:53am

Post #3 of 19 (479 views)
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Or does Catching Fire show an appetite for sequels? [In reply to] Can't Post

I think DOS will do fine - I also think it's an easier sequel to pick up if you haven't seen the first film than Catching Fire.

Storm clouds


Annatar598
Rohan

Nov 30 2013, 8:05am

Post #4 of 19 (487 views)
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Not a chance [In reply to] Can't Post

Catching Fire and Frozen really won't hold a candle to DOS when it releases. The hype for DOS IS there, some on this board in previous threads are ready to declare doomsday but it is not all so doom and gloom.

If we are to believe Ian McKellen in saying DOS is PJ's favorite film of the six then we should have not much to worry about when there will be good word of mouth and good reviews.


Rohirrim Rider
Rivendell


Nov 30 2013, 10:06am

Post #5 of 19 (422 views)
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Hits like this often help forthcoming films [In reply to] Can't Post

If people are flocking to the cinema in the weeks before a film comes out then they're exposed to the publicity for that film. It all feeds into each other. For example, Captain Phillips did well thanks to a similar adult audience going en masse to Gravity, catching the trailers and posters for it and setting themselves a return visit. Likewise, a few years ago the UK industry saw a huge boom in early 2011 thanks to The King's Speech bringing in so many people who wouldn't normally go to the cinema, leading to greater exposure for most to advertising for Black Swan and True Grit, leading them to be bigger hits than they would have been otherwise.

Of course if these movies were released too close together than it might be a problem - say if The Hobbit was coming out a week after Hunger games. But Catching Fire will be in it's fourth weekend by the time DoS is released (Frozen it's third) and although both will probably be pulling in $20-$30m (Frozen is bound to have decent legs over Christmas) neither will be posing a threat to DoS because the vast amount of people and families will have seen these two films already and be ready to move on to the next thing. Besides, Middle-Earth films have always had legs due to opening over the Christmas period where the box office is more evenly spread out (rather than it being front-loaded) so people will have plenty of time to catch all three.


(This post was edited by Rohirrim Rider on Nov 30 2013, 10:08am)


dormouse
Half-elven


Nov 30 2013, 10:06am

Post #6 of 19 (410 views)
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I can't see why it would [In reply to] Can't Post

People go to the cinema, have a really good evening, are keen to go again.... Maybe even see the trailer. Success creates a good vibe - puts people in the mood for more.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Nov 30 2013, 11:26am

Post #7 of 19 (361 views)
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Yes [In reply to] Can't Post

I touched upon that with my comment about a healthy market also possibly being a good thing. But there's something to be said for an empty market and then one blockbuster swooping in, appeasing the hunger of the masses for the spectacle and taking all the dollars.


Arannir
Valinor


Nov 30 2013, 11:57am

Post #8 of 19 (370 views)
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I guess Catching Fire... [In reply to] Can't Post

... will be the ruling movie this fall/winter.

I think there is no way DoS will come close in NA, however, I guess Europe in particular will secure a world-wide "victory" for DoS.


It is an interesting question imho whether AUJ with different reviews would have been able to make around 400 Mio in NA.

Honestly, I have the feeling hype for CF was much much higher this year than that for AUJ ever was - also before the reviews.

I simply think that to make that kind of numbers you need an extra amount of hype that even the Middle-earth franchise cannot simply create, not even with bigger marketing.

The established audience base after LotR ist very strong - that is why AUJ still made 1 billion. But it simply did not have that extra momentum for any kind of break-out that CF now gets.

Just shows how these things are very unpredictable and the "shoulds" from these speculations are often in the end what they are - dreams and wishes: In a positive direction by a movie's supporters or in a negative directions by people not so crazy about a certain flick.


ďAll good stories deserve embellishment."

Praise is subjective. And so is criticism.

"I am afraid it is only too likely to be true what you say about the critics and the public. I am dreading the publication for it will be impossible not to mind what is said. I have exposed my heart to be shot at."


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Nov 30 2013, 12:18pm

Post #9 of 19 (348 views)
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That's for sure (in North America) [In reply to] Can't Post


In Reply To
Honestly, I have the feeling hype for CF was much much higher this year than that for AUJ ever was - also before the reviews.


Even the first Hunger Games was more hyped. The openings for both movies is proof of that. But Middle Earth was just as hyped if not more during the LOTR (TTT & ROTK) days. I think it's just a matter of AUJ not looking as appealing to the masses. I also think "middle-ages" fantasy has it tougher to get the attention of the USA audience.


Arannir
Valinor


Nov 30 2013, 12:24pm

Post #10 of 19 (334 views)
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Yes, but that is what I mean. [In reply to] Can't Post

It was the error within all those predicitons that had AUJ in the 1.5 billion + club last year. The belief that the hype for TTT and RotK would just work for this one as well.

Though not all made that mistake, those voices were just more quiet among all the record-breaking buzzing.

Ah, in the end, if DoS stays around AUJ numbers I am sure nobody will be disappointed... to even stay close to that number without the really big hype is not bad at all.

Looking at Avengers, THG and CF I am kind of glad we haven't got with the TH trilogy what creates the record-breaking buzz at the moment Cool


ďAll good stories deserve embellishment."

Praise is subjective. And so is criticism.

"I am afraid it is only too likely to be true what you say about the critics and the public. I am dreading the publication for it will be impossible not to mind what is said. I have exposed my heart to be shot at."


Arannir
Valinor


Nov 30 2013, 12:39pm

Post #11 of 19 (341 views)
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Pro and Con for DoS Box Office [In reply to] Can't Post

I will try that...

- mediocre reviews of AUJ that might very well spill over in DoS reviews
- not the same enthusiastic audience reaction as LotR (#1 target of hate trolling all over the net, lol)
- hype in NA not even close to CF's hype

+ in Europe DoS's hype seems to be higher than for every other winter blockbuster
+ marketing campaign seems to have worked better than for AUJ on some levels
+ not as much Oscar-buzz movie competition as 2012
+ darker tone, Elves and Smaug
+ huge DVD/BluRay sales, re-runs on HBO all the time
+ AUJ was received well by the general audience


So the positive imho should be enough to balance out those not coming back after AUJ. Not convinced yet it will be enough though to top AUJ.


ďAll good stories deserve embellishment."

Praise is subjective. And so is criticism.

"I am afraid it is only too likely to be true what you say about the critics and the public. I am dreading the publication for it will be impossible not to mind what is said. I have exposed my heart to be shot at."

(This post was edited by Arannir on Nov 30 2013, 12:41pm)


Avandel
Valinor

Nov 30 2013, 2:01pm

Post #12 of 19 (304 views)
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Press embargo? [In reply to] Can't Post

No doubt stuff re DOS will leak out after premieres, but who gets to go to these? Was under the impression they are not open to the general public, but cast/crew, press, invitees only. Plus possible non-disclosure agreements.

In any case don't think CF and Frozen numbers will affect DOS, as has been posted theater attendance is mystifying and DOS has everything a "general blockbuster audience" could ask for, really (agree with the poster that, for instance, Smaug has just been teased, so expect a full view will be beyond amazing!). Not to mention in the U.S. folks are off on holiday, plenty of time for repeat views (what do you go see if you have been at the
mall all day hitting sales?)

Plus to me DOS has a wide open field, nothing to compare to it - and plenty are not going to go to an animated feature, no matter how good. I don't know how PR in the U.S. stacks up against Europe (I envy the French who seemed to use Hobbit posters in their subways), but they are running AUJ on HBO, I keep seeing commercials *squeal*, and expect the next round of drugstore entertainment mags will all be DOS (replacing the CF ones with "free posters" which have been out for a while). IMO if DOS doesn't make huge numbers it will just be one of those things in the movie business - bet TORN folks could list any number of films that didn't pull huge BO, even tho all the key elements are there. But I think DOS will be huge, if not off the charts.


Rohirrim Rider
Rivendell


Nov 30 2013, 2:27pm

Post #13 of 19 (270 views)
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We haven't had an empty market though [In reply to] Can't Post

We had Gravity followed by Thor followed by Catching Fire followed by Frozen followed by The Hobbit. At the moment the US box office is on a roll so I don't think there's anything to be worried about with regards to it being a one-film-takes-all scenario. There's still enough space between CF/Frozen and The Hobbit for the latter not to be affected.


In Reply To
I touched upon that with my comment about a healthy market also possibly being a good thing. But there's something to be said for an empty market and then one blockbuster swooping in, appeasing the hunger of the masses for the spectacle and taking all the dollars.



AinurOlorin
Half-elven


Nov 30 2013, 9:13pm

Post #14 of 19 (155 views)
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Doubt it, thanks to the gap. They have a whole another two weeks, just about [In reply to] Can't Post

to get old. You know how it is here in America. There is a power to newness. The noise will already be shifting to the next big thing, which is Smaug. Catching fire will make more money overall, but if its already approaching 300 million, its made the bulk of its money. It may make another hundred or so in the next week. Then, it will have reached most of the people it is going to reach. It will be on to the next thing. Which won't be Frozen, it is having its run now. Aside from the 10 million or so Madea might shave off of its opening, I don't think there is anything that will significantly effect Smaug until about Christmas with Anchroman, and that only so much.

"Hear me, hounds of Sauron, Gandalf is here! Fly if you value your foul skins, I will shrivel you from tail to snout if you step within this circle!"

"Do not be to eager to deal out death in judgement. Even the very wise cannot see all ends."


Eldorion
Rohan


Nov 30 2013, 9:29pm

Post #15 of 19 (146 views)
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When it comes to holding candles... [In reply to] Can't Post

Catching Fire is going to crush DOS at the North American box office. It's on track to get near The Hunger Games' $410 million gross. Even if it falls off a bit, it will still make $80-90 million more than AUJ did. There's literally nothing to suggest that DOS will see an increase of that magnitude over its predecessor. Worldwide is a different picture, of course, since Middle-earth has always been very strong there and the THG franchise is still working on developing its global audience. I fully expect DOS to pass Catching Fire globally. I think Iron Man 3 is going to go home with both the domestic and worldwide crowns for the year, though. Wink

Fake edit: It should go without saying that the box office results have nothing to do with which of these films are the best, much less which one I (or anyone else) prefers.



There's a feeling I get, when I look to the West...



Eldorion
Rohan


Nov 30 2013, 9:32pm

Post #16 of 19 (148 views)
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I don't think Catching Fire is going to hurt DOS [In reply to] Can't Post

Movies can certainly benefit from being the first good and/or big-name property to come along in a while, but even though CF and DOS are opening three weeks apart, it's not like this holiday season is packed full of blockbusters. The only other big blockbuster movie to come out since the end of Summer was Thor 2, which isn't on the same level as CF or DOS. I don't think DOS will do as well as CF, but I don't think that's down to scheduling.

As for Frozen, that has much less of a demographic overlap with The Hobbit's audience than Catching Fire does. If they were opening the same weekend it might have an impact if only because of competition for 3D screens, but I don't think it will exert any undue influence on DOS either.



There's a feeling I get, when I look to the West...



AinurOlorin
Half-elven


Nov 30 2013, 10:09pm

Post #17 of 19 (127 views)
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It would be more than 3d screens. I think Radagast , the Unexpected Party, the Trolls [In reply to] Can't Post

and such did an effective job of making An Unexpected very popular among many children who may not have been into or even all that aware of Rings, and cable and dvds will have expanded that, as will things like the legos. Frozen would compete for many of the children ages 5 to 11 who would be interested in a big, massive adventure movie with Elves, Wizards, Bunny sleds, Dwarves and a Dragon, as well as with casual movie goers who just like a fun movie with lots of spectacle. However, it is coming out far enough in advance for its appeal to have begun subsiding before the "new big thing" draw of The Hobbit.

In Reply To
.

As for Frozen, ... If they were opening the same weekend it might have an impact if only because of competition for 3D screens, but I don't think it will exert any undue influence on DOS either.


"Hear me, hounds of Sauron, Gandalf is here! Fly if you value your foul skins, I will shrivel you from tail to snout if you step within this circle!"

"Do not be to eager to deal out death in judgement. Even the very wise cannot see all ends."


Eldorion
Rohan


Nov 30 2013, 11:10pm

Post #18 of 19 (118 views)
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That's certainly possible... [In reply to] Can't Post

...but AUJ was very much a PG-13 movie, so I would expect many parents wouldn't allow their 5-11 year olds to go see it. Elements like Radagast may have been in there "for the kids", but on the other hand, there were several very on-the-nose drug jokes surrounding the Radagast character. More than I would have expected if he's supposed to be this franchise's equivalent of Jar Jar Binks.



There's a feeling I get, when I look to the West...



AinurOlorin
Half-elven


Nov 30 2013, 11:14pm

Post #19 of 19 (121 views)
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Americans only get "moral" about nudity, stupid as the notion is, naked bodies being [In reply to] Can't Post

ubiquitous and universal. However, it is what it is. Primetime tv shows depict HORRIBLE violence every friday night. Kids won't get the drug jokes anyway, for the most part. I would bet a fair penny that, while certainly some parents will say "no, too scary, too violent," a great many will not, or will simply opt to cover eyes where appropriate.

I saw plenty of kids in the theatres for An Unexpected, and with the dragon and the kids who actually are now fans of the franchise after having seen and loved the first movie, there will be plenty of kids there this time as well, probably more, for it is apt to include kids who saw film one first on cable or DVD.

The hedgehogs, the bunny sled, the trolls (appropriately so), some of the antics of The Great Goblin (also mostly appropriate I think) etc. were very much directed at the original target audience of the stand alone Hobbit novel: children of all ages (including over 16 - 21 and over lol).

"Hear me, hounds of Sauron, Gandalf is here! Fly if you value your foul skins, I will shrivel you from tail to snout if you step within this circle!"

"Do not be to eager to deal out death in judgement. Even the very wise cannot see all ends."

(This post was edited by AinurOlorin on Nov 30 2013, 11:20pm)

 
 

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