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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
2013 Box Office for DoS
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Elskidor
Rohan

Nov 9 2013, 8:55pm

Post #1 of 40 (920 views)
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2013 Box Office for DoS Can't Post

After looking at the highest grossing films of 2013 I realized just how well DoS might do for the year. I don't see it doing less than 300, and I could be wrong, but it seems highly unlikely. Iron Man 3 and Despicable Me 2 seem to be the lead heavy hitters of the year, and the only other one coming close is Man of Steel and that did not even top the 300 mark.

If I'm right DoS could be one of the top 3 heavy hitters for this year, but it depends on how well Thor 2 does as well. It would have to do extremely well to take out Despicable me 2( 364 Mil) and I can't see it touching Iron Man 3 (409 Mil)...will it beat Thor 2 though?

Predictions?


Elskidor
Rohan

Nov 9 2013, 8:56pm

Post #2 of 40 (506 views)
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Oh, I forgot Hunger Games [In reply to] Can't Post

Completely forgot Hunger Games, which will also do pretty dang good.


patrickk
Rohan

Nov 9 2013, 9:42pm

Post #3 of 40 (455 views)
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You are very Modest in your predictions [In reply to] Can't Post

I was thinking $1.2b. You must remember 3/4th of the box office for these films is outside the US.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Nov 9 2013, 9:50pm

Post #4 of 40 (434 views)
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I think he knows that. [In reply to] Can't Post

He is obviously only talking about North American box office.


patrickk
Rohan

Nov 9 2013, 10:07pm

Post #5 of 40 (415 views)
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But then the comparison's don't work [In reply to] Can't Post

The movies being compared with get around half of their income from outside US while the Hobbit et al gets 3/4ths, that is why the distinction (of the US versus the rest) is important, as the ratio is not constant. Global figures mean much more to this set of films and their profitability which most US reviewer haven't worked out.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Nov 9 2013, 10:13pm

Post #6 of 40 (410 views)
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In the context of NA box office, the comparisons work. [In reply to] Can't Post

Sure, every dollar counts, no matter which part of the world it comes from but this thread is obviously not about that.


patrickk
Rohan

Nov 9 2013, 10:19pm

Post #7 of 40 (386 views)
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To Continue my Pedantic Point [In reply to] Can't Post

...most/much of my predicted $1.2b will occur in 2014, so calendar years not good comparison either (total box office is better or box office at time of DVD release) to make fairer comparisons.


Ham_Sammy
Tol Eressea

Nov 9 2013, 10:39pm

Post #8 of 40 (363 views)
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Agree [In reply to] Can't Post

It should be total box office. Better comparison. Especially since the movie opens at different times around the world.

Thank you for your questions, now go sod off and do something useful - Martin Freeman Twitter chat 3/1/13


droidsocket
Rivendell

Nov 10 2013, 12:00am

Post #9 of 40 (321 views)
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May I... [In reply to] Can't Post

Politely point out that the North American box office includes humble Canada and is not just the US. :)


Owain
Tol Eressea


Nov 10 2013, 12:27am

Post #10 of 40 (314 views)
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Here's to a huge opening and sustained success... [In reply to] Can't Post

for Parts 2 and 3.

Hopefully, the box office success will result from some amazing movies.

I feel good about this next chapter... AUJ set the stage... time to blow the doors off.


Smile

Middle Earth is New Zealand!

"Question everything, embrace the bad, and hold on to the good."


Elskidor
Rohan

Nov 10 2013, 12:32am

Post #11 of 40 (302 views)
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As for [In reply to] Can't Post

World Wide success it will top Hunger Games and Despicable Me 2 by far and wide, for the foreign success of those two won't be nearly as high. Thor and Iron Man...well, that is a different story. Still though, if it doesn't beat Marvel's heroes it shall still be the third grossing world wide movie of 2013.


Glorfindela
Valinor


Nov 10 2013, 12:43am

Post #12 of 40 (293 views)
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Wouldn't that be 2014, for the total box office? [In reply to] Can't Post

AUJ was in 2013


Elskidor
Rohan

Nov 10 2013, 12:53am

Post #13 of 40 (279 views)
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Oh [In reply to] Can't Post

So although it comes out in 2013, it's counted as a 2014 movie? I guess I really don't understand the box office or am use to watching the totals for summer films mainly.


patrickk
Rohan

Nov 10 2013, 12:55am

Post #14 of 40 (283 views)
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Then why not the rest of the world [In reply to] Can't Post

I did not know this; and it further adds to my confusion as to why they (Box Office Mojo folk) would not include the rest of to world. They sometimes use the phrase domestic, which I suspect also includes Canada: reason for more gnashing of (Canadian) teeth.


patrickk
Rohan

Nov 10 2013, 12:59am

Post #15 of 40 (276 views)
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Release Date and income date differn things [In reply to] Can't Post

If you release in Xmas most income may/would be in January February hence my point on equvlent comparisons


Avandel
Valinor

Nov 10 2013, 2:18am

Post #16 of 40 (279 views)
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Will beat Thor 2, easily, IMO [In reply to] Can't Post

And possibly Iron Man - while I know the largest movie-going demographic is under 35, and may or may not do repeat viewings, I've got friends and family members
who just won't go to a "comic book movie" - I know, I've argued and pleaded if it's just a good film - makes no difference. But they'll go to the Hobbit. And suspect
DOS is going to have plenty of repeat viewers and great word-of-mouth. Action, creepiness, epicness, great cast with stunning looks, a shapeshifter, all = $$$$.
Already believe DOS will cross the the 300 million mark in the U.S., and the billion mark worldwide.

I want to see Thor 2, myself - looks like fun - and if I am VERY lucky I'll see a DOS trailer big screen.
PS. Noticed the Hunger Games dominating the movie rags at the drugstore today - but figure in a few weeks, DOS covers will rule!


Elskidor
Rohan

Nov 10 2013, 2:26am

Post #17 of 40 (256 views)
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well I noticed that [In reply to] Can't Post

Hunger Games didn't do all that well outside of NA before, so no matter how good it does in NA it's not going to be that way across the globe. Super Hero flicks and The Hobbit, 007 and a.lot of bigger franchises get global loving. Iron Man 3 beat out AUJ total by, I think, 100k. I do highly suspect DoS will do better than AUJ though.


Ziggy Stardust
Gondor


Nov 10 2013, 2:32am

Post #18 of 40 (286 views)
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My brother saw Thor 2 [In reply to] Can't Post

And he's also a Tolkien fan, and he thought Thor 2 was better than what we've seen of The Hobbit trailers. Unsure In other words, he doesn't have much hope. And neither do I. Unimpressed


Elessar
Valinor


Nov 10 2013, 5:55am

Post #19 of 40 (252 views)
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Thor 2 [In reply to] Can't Post

Was pretty awesome. I really enjoyed it and will get it on blu. That being said I don't see it beating DOS. I have little doubt DOS will fail to crack 300 million in the states and over 1 billion worldwide.

As I said Thor 2 was awesome but DOS > Thor 2



cats16
Valinor


Nov 10 2013, 5:57am

Post #20 of 40 (242 views)
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I'm a little surprised... [In reply to] Can't Post

...to hear that Thor 2 is only looking at $80-85 million this weekend. It seemed like many predictions were putting it close to $100 million. But, as I've been made to understand, Thor isn't as popular as Tony Stark (I'm not a superhero fan, so I could be wrong). So perhaps that partially explains the smaller opening--not as big of an Avengers-boost as some thought.


(This post was edited by cats16 on Nov 10 2013, 5:58am)


Elskidor
Rohan

Nov 10 2013, 6:32am

Post #21 of 40 (235 views)
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As far as the Avengers go [In reply to] Can't Post

I prefer Thor over Iron Man. I will be seeing Thor 2, and I still have not watched Iron Man 3. I guess I'm a weirdo. X-Men Days of Future Past is the only midnight superhero film I will probably ever attend, unless X-Men films continue to get better and better.


AinurOlorin
Half-elven


Nov 10 2013, 8:30am

Post #22 of 40 (212 views)
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I do too, yet that is to be expected since we are here, fans of sorcery and swords, and [In reply to] Can't Post

thus more attuned to a Thor than a man in a robotic suit. lol

In Reply To
I prefer Thor over Iron Man. I will be seeing Thor 2, and I still have not watched Iron Man 3.


"Hear me, hounds of Sauron, Gandalf is here! Fly if you value your foul skins, I will shrivel you from tail to snout if you step within this circle!"

"Do not be to eager to deal out death in judgement. Even the very wise cannot see all ends."


patrickk
Rohan

Nov 10 2013, 9:01am

Post #23 of 40 (209 views)
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Sorry Different audiences [In reply to] Can't Post

Most Tolkein fans have no interest in Thror, and I suspect vice versa, hence your observation. I see $1.2b world wide but have no idea of how US audiences see such things, and at 25% of the total the US is an important but not critical part of it. If no-one in the US watched the Hobbit it still would be a huge success.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Nov 10 2013, 10:40am

Post #24 of 40 (181 views)
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Box Office Mojo does include the rest of the world [In reply to] Can't Post

But the chart Elskidor focused on was for domestic box office. They also have an international box office section and worldwide box office charts.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Nov 10 2013, 10:45am

Post #25 of 40 (177 views)
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AUJ was released in 2013, it's a 2013 movie. [In reply to] Can't Post

In any 2013 movie charts, that's where AUJ's total gross shows up, regardless if part of the money was generated in 2014.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Nov 10 2013, 10:49am)

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