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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
By the numbers, because......well, because we can.
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Misty Mountain Hop
Rivendell


Oct 28 2013, 6:16pm

Post #1 of 47 (1382 views)
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By the numbers, because......well, because we can. Can't Post

Before I get too into it, I'd just like to say that numbers don't always mean everything when it comes to box office, ticket sales, etc...but they can at least tell us a few things, and some people like to look deeper into them...like me. So here goes nothing.

It would seem like a reasonable statement to say that Desolation of Smaug will outperform Unexpected Journey, and in turn There and Back Again will outperform DOS. Some people don't like comparisons to LOTR, but each of those movies outdid the previous one on almost every level.

AUJ had solid box office numbers, home video sales, opening weekend, and fan reception, for the most part. If we were to go by LOTR standards, DOS should outdo all of those. This means that it will get roughly $1.1 billion+, $90 million opening, and stellar sales and reception.

Now we also know that AUJ got the numbers it did partly because of the fact that it was the first film to return to ME in 10 years. People who liked LOTR wanted to see more. It also gained new fans, such as young children and their parents, or other new fans in general.

With DOS, we get a bunch of new characters, locations, themes, tones, and story. Plus we get Smaug. Another chance to see 48fps. A darker film. Legolas. The list just goes on. We could also look ahead to TABA, with additional new things, plus the ending of ME on film for a good long while. Along with more bookends and connections with LOTR, a huge epic battle, and everything PJ & Co. has left in the tank, we could see another masterpiece in the making.

In general, every movie(LOTR) just felt "bigger, better and longer" than the previous one. Each film has more work put into it than the previous one, at least that's the way it seemed in the special features. More effects shots per film as well. (around 540 for FOTR, around 799 for TT, and around 1488 for ROTK, can't remember exactly).

With all of that being said, what is everyone's honest opinion in regards to the status of the next two films by the numbers. Will they hold up to the projections and continually gain numbers, or will they slip back?

"Only, you've never done a hard day's work." - Merry

(This post was edited by Misty Mountain Hop on Oct 28 2013, 6:25pm)


Elessar
Valinor


Oct 28 2013, 6:24pm

Post #2 of 47 (710 views)
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My guess [In reply to] Can't Post

I do think you will see a bump. I believe that AUJ picked up lots of new fans of Middle-earth and with the new and old things coming into DOS it should set the film up well. I very much see DOS making 1.1 Billion and as much as 1.2 Billion.



Arannir
Valinor


Oct 28 2013, 6:31pm

Post #3 of 47 (694 views)
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After AUJ... [In reply to] Can't Post

... I thought a decrease could be possible.

With the high DVD sales and downloads and the now building marketing plus buzz I could see a small increase.

All in all I guess we can assume basically AUJ numbers +/- 100 mio. Unless unexpectedly good or bad reviews and word of mouth will occur. I, however, imagine the reception to be rather similar.



ďA dragon is no idle fancy. Whatever may be his origins, in fact or invention, the dragon in legend is a potent creation of menís imagination, richer in significance than his barrow is in gold.Ē J.R.R. Tolkien

Words of wisdom that should be remembered - both by critics, purists and anyone in between.


MasterOrc
Rivendell


Oct 28 2013, 7:00pm

Post #4 of 47 (634 views)
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Nice post...I would have to say... [In reply to] Can't Post

since the DOS is really going to pack the action, have an epic Dragon, with old time fan favorites (Legolas), it will exceed 1.2 to 1.4 billion.

This could be the best film of all of them and it will definitely peak the interest of potential new fans of Middle-Earth which will really set-up TABA to put up some huge numbers even possibly surpassing DOS. I for one can't wait for the next step of the journey to begin. Cool


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Oct 28 2013, 7:37pm

Post #5 of 47 (586 views)
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Agreed, AUJ +/- $100m [In reply to] Can't Post

But i see the odds of it decreasing to be higher than the odds for an increase. In quite a many people's eyes, AUJ was a disappointment.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Oct 28 2013, 7:38pm)


Annatar598
Rohan

Oct 28 2013, 7:57pm

Post #6 of 47 (571 views)
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But [In reply to] Can't Post

A disappointment doesn't mean they won't go and see the sequel. Whatever AUJ was (A great film IMO) It was NOT a disaster or a bad movie. It was certainly not like the Star Wars Prequels as some would want to believe.

DOS isn't likely a movie people will necessarily miss. I know many who were disappointed (but almost ten times more who loved AUJ) but are looking forward to just see Benedict Cumberbatch as Smaug!

And do keep in mind that AUJ probably created more fans than it lost. LOTR is still an "old" movie to younger crowds and some fantasy buffs I know didn't like the toned down approach to fantasy LOTR had. These fantasy buffs went on to LOVE AUJ.


Misty Mountain Hop
Rivendell


Oct 28 2013, 8:03pm

Post #7 of 47 (546 views)
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That's a great point about age. [In reply to] Can't Post

LOTR was in my prime teenage years and I became a "geek" for Middle Earth. Today, a lot of the fans of The Hobbit were barely alive when they came out 10-12 years ago, so it would seem that TH definitely attracts a younger crowd of fans who don't quite understand what all the hype was about LOTR and how big they were. They just simply love what they are seeing on screen today with TH and like the lighter, family friendly tone that will turn heads (or take them completely off Wink)

"Only, you've never done a hard day's work." - Merry


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Oct 28 2013, 8:14pm

Post #8 of 47 (559 views)
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Cumberbatch is overrated [In reply to] Can't Post

I mean in terms of mass appeal. He has his rather loud internet fans but he won't attract the masses. And Smaug is yet another dragon, nothing we haven't seen before.

I don't think AUJ created more fans than it lost. There just seems to be so little excitement for DOS almost everywhere you look.


Olorin2607
Lorien

Oct 28 2013, 8:20pm

Post #9 of 47 (521 views)
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Yup. [In reply to] Can't Post

Not just that, DOS could get worse in some aspects at least.. e.g. over the top action sequences (Teaser Trailer!!!)

As much as I want to get excited, I remain cautious. I will not get my hopes up too high.


Arannir
Valinor


Oct 28 2013, 8:54pm

Post #10 of 47 (511 views)
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I hope you do not... [In reply to] Can't Post

... just mean those charming folk over at boxoffice.com ;)



ďA dragon is no idle fancy. Whatever may be his origins, in fact or invention, the dragon in legend is a potent creation of menís imagination, richer in significance than his barrow is in gold.Ē J.R.R. Tolkien

Words of wisdom that should be remembered - both by critics, purists and anyone in between.


Annatar598
Rohan

Oct 28 2013, 9:44pm

Post #11 of 47 (472 views)
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Quite the contrary [In reply to] Can't Post

The Hobbit EE is already topping Amazon BR bestsellers and was in the top 10 iTunes list.

As for Smaug being "yet another dragon"? I would disagree. Every news agency has highlighted Smaug when publishing the release of each of the new trailers. Hell, the titles of the articles were mostly Smaug-related quips. He's not just another dragon. No other dragon has generated THIS much hype. Twitter feeds and sites that show you top trends are evidence of this. #SMAUG was trending greatly at the time of the trailers.

As far as my own personal experiences go, I would have to disagree with you on AUJ losing more fans than creating them. There are people I know (My dad included) who were disappointed by AUJ for not "living up to LOTR" but will still go see DOS. My dad for example saw both trailers for DOS and immediately said "this looks much better." And for him, AUJ never seemed much. He didn't like any of the trailers either.

And I keep reading online that The Hobbit was a "disaster" and PJ "ruined" The Hobbit. It is certainly not the case. When most people cite Rotten Tomatoes as evidence of The Hobbit's doom, they don't realize that a 65% is still translated as "mostly positive reviews." The negativity and cynicism in this world is just too tedious these days.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Oct 28 2013, 10:03pm

Post #12 of 47 (447 views)
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Give me one blockbuster close to release that doesn't top the amazon list... [In reply to] Can't Post

As far as Joe Blow is concerned, Smaug is just another dragon. The trailers have not given occasion to think otherwise.

Anecdotal evidence really means nothing.

When SW Episode 1 came out, it had almost the same RT rating. I'm not saying AUJ is as bad as Episode 1, just that you could have also said Episode 1 got "mostly positive reviews".


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Oct 28 2013, 10:03pm)


Arannir
Valinor


Oct 28 2013, 10:06pm

Post #13 of 47 (450 views)
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Danger [In reply to] Can't Post

 


Quote
As for Smaug being "yet another dragon"? I would disagree. Every news agency has highlighted Smaug when publishing the release of each of the new trailers. Hell, the titles of the articles were mostly Smaug-related quips. He's not just another dragon. No other dragon has generated THIS much hype. Twitter feeds and sites that show you top trends are evidence of this. #SMAUG was trending greatly at the time of the trailers.






I agree that people do not expect another dragon... but that is where a danger lies. I am sure Smaug will be a rather traditional dragon and will never be able to meet some of the insane expectations. And I am sure that many just wait for one mediocre CGI shot of Smaug to label the whole attempt to bring him to screen as failed. We simply saw much more stellar CGI to compare with since LotR which was groundbreaking at the time.

So despite my own excitement and my careful belief that DoS will be received more positively by critics and reviewers (and some of the self-proclaimed movie experts), I wouldn't be exactly surprised if at least the buzz will remain to be kept down by some of the underwhelment that was generated in some circles with (and sometimes even before) AUJ. I am not convinced critics who hated the look of part one will easily be turned around.



ďA dragon is no idle fancy. Whatever may be his origins, in fact or invention, the dragon in legend is a potent creation of menís imagination, richer in significance than his barrow is in gold.Ē J.R.R. Tolkien

Words of wisdom that should be remembered - both by critics, purists and anyone in between.

(This post was edited by Arannir on Oct 28 2013, 10:07pm)


Elessar
Valinor


Oct 28 2013, 10:26pm

Post #14 of 47 (416 views)
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Of course [In reply to] Can't Post

You expect it to do less. You were calling AUJ a failure even after it made a billion. I'd bet my life just as many thought it was an awesome movie and a huge success. So how do you figure just because some didn't like it then it will fall off? There is virtually a zero chance this makes less than a billion.



(This post was edited by Elessar on Oct 28 2013, 10:32pm)


Escapist
Gondor


Oct 28 2013, 10:41pm

Post #15 of 47 (398 views)
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Guessing 1.2 - 1.3 (give-or-take) but not over 1.5 or under 1.1 [In reply to] Can't Post

I think DOS will have more appeal because of darker themes, the presence of lovely elves, and a more human element with Laketown's introduction. The dragon was awesome in the glimpses we saw of it in AUJ (scenes that included it were among the most widely acclaimed and least criticized - behind Gollum's Riddles in the Dark, of course - and here we have that dark and creepy melodramatic stuff in spades in DOS).

I doubt that so much of the discussion will be about things peripheral to the movie such as an inordinately picky analysis of new technology without attention of any kind paid to characterizations or acting - and going overboard with comparison to Star Wars (although comparisons to LotR will probably never be avoidable). At least I can hope so. The raucous cries of "Prequel Curse" and "doomed like SW" is somewhat quieter and I think T&L are less controversial now that the audience actually had to suffer *not* seeing them the first time and hearing the audience reaction to that.

Over the month before DOS comes out we have:
  • Thor
  • The Hunger Games
  • Dr. Who
  • other interesting things like Faust and Best Man Down

I don't think DOS will realistically beat Thor but I think it will beat the rest on that list. There will probably still be repeats as kids get back from school and want to see it with their friends and family (because these stories span generations) as well as with their friends from home and school and with different groups of friends and family members - much like people do for the holidays themselves.
On RT, 99% are saying that they want to see it. I love how the 4 selected reviewer quotes include two generic positives and two specific criticisms when 99% of responses are positive (want to see it).


Elessar
Valinor


Oct 28 2013, 10:54pm

Post #16 of 47 (382 views)
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Good guess [In reply to] Can't Post

I do think you have to start at 1.1 but I think your max is the top end. I agree the faker theme will make people much happier especially those that we're expecting LOTR x2. Also, having Orlando Bloom back will help more than most realize. I loved AUJ but I do think DOS is going to be better because we're going to get a more serious as well as get to the meat of all that's going on. I was super pumped for AUJ but I'm even more so for DOS.

I plan to see Thor and The Hunger Games but most likely only once. Now, for DOS I figure I'll see it at least 5 times,

I just don't see it making less than AUJ total of $1,017,003,568.



Estel78
Tol Eressea

Oct 28 2013, 11:01pm

Post #17 of 47 (376 views)
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Some? [In reply to] Can't Post

You speak as if you can absolutely not see how DOS can possibly decrease from AUJ. Seriously? It's not about how i feel or you feel about the movie, the reception was middling, that's not just "some" people that didn't like it or thought it was a step (or a few steps) down from LOTR. There just isn't nearly the same level of excitement for the new installment as back when LOTR was the hot thing. A dropoff of $100m would be -10%, which is not that much when you think about it but a dropoff nonetheless.

We have gone through multiple times why a billion is not a big accomplishment anymore, at least not when it comes to a prequel to LOTR. If a movie like Gravity would do it, yeah, that would be an accomplishment but not Hobbit. It's all about expectations. It sort of saved face by barely managing the billion but many box office (armchair) pundits had it doing more than that.

I think i never used the word failure. A disappointment, yes.


Escapist
Gondor


Oct 28 2013, 11:02pm

Post #18 of 47 (396 views)
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A lot of the audience chatter I heard after [In reply to] Can't Post

was pleasantly surprised after having been exposed to scathing reviews.

I have a feeling that people of this sort and the buzz and BO numbers and records broken in the news will make more people blow off the negative hype than last time - which translates to a couple extra likely buckaroos.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Oct 28 2013, 11:08pm

Post #19 of 47 (397 views)
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Thor? [In reply to] Can't Post

The first one made $450m worldwide. While i see an increase due to the "Avengers factor" i don't think it'll come that close to a billion. DOS should make more than Thor 2, even if by a little.


Ham_Sammy
Tol Eressea

Oct 28 2013, 11:18pm

Post #20 of 47 (366 views)
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I say [In reply to] Can't Post

1.2. People will enjoy the Dragon scene as well as the spiders in Mirkwood as well as DG, Laketown. The faithful will show. I think they will like it better than AUJ. I say small increase.

Thank you for your questions, now go sod off and do something useful - Martin Freeman Twitter chat 3/1/13


Elessar
Valinor


Oct 28 2013, 11:25pm

Post #21 of 47 (354 views)
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Gut feeling [In reply to] Can't Post

I don't see in anyway this makes less than the same amount the first film made. Yes, seriously. The reception wasn't middling at all. If you want to go with RT lets say 35% didn't then that leaves 65% enjoyed it. That's a higher total unless my math skills failed me. I actually think there is strong excitement for the second film. It's not LOTR but I don't think we'll ever see that again. The current phase is the comic book movies.

We have been. I still disagree and firmly stand by a billion dollars is still a heck of a total for any movie. Gravity doesn't deserve to make a billion. Again, I think it's terribly short sighted to say it's not an accomplishment toe any of these three films to make a billion. You're more than welcomed to stick to your stance but I would venture to guess that most people will agree making 1 billion is saying something. Yeah, I do think many of us expected it to make more before it got picked apart by critics who are clueless for various reasons. That did hurt it but there were many armchair pundits like yourself who said it wouldn't make it either. I guess both were a bit wrong.

Well, if DOS only makes a billion again I and many fans will take that disappointment all day long.



Elessar
Valinor


Oct 28 2013, 11:28pm

Post #22 of 47 (359 views)
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Most people [In reply to] Can't Post

I know we're pretty pleased. Obviously not all but easily in the 65-70% range which is quite good.(based on rt which people seem to love). I think more will with DOS because they will know it's not a LOTR redux and it's going to be more serious.

I agree. The buzz I have seen is quote positive despite film one being a disappointment. We shall see but I feel it's almost a guarantee that it doesn't make less than AUJ.



Elessar
Valinor


Oct 28 2013, 11:29pm

Post #23 of 47 (359 views)
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Thor [In reply to] Can't Post

I wouldn't be shocked at all if it doesn't make at least a billion. It's got the avengers buzz, hemsworth is more widely known, and the buzz for it seems really good.



Escapist
Gondor


Oct 28 2013, 11:38pm

Post #24 of 47 (343 views)
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The approval rating from the general audience is 82% on my RT. [In reply to] Can't Post

65-70 is the critic opinion and that only rarely matches the general audience opinion.

The general audience generates the Box Office numbers. 82% of them liked AUJ and 99% of them are looking forward to seeing DOS.

I'd say that the critics showed disappointment but the general audience liked it - and both will probably like DOS better (outside of Tolkien purists).


Escapist
Gondor


Oct 28 2013, 11:39pm

Post #25 of 47 (331 views)
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I was thinking of the Avengers buzz as well. // [In reply to] Can't Post

 

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