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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
By the numbers, because......well, because we can.

Misty Mountain Hop
Rivendell


Oct 28 2013, 6:16pm


Views: 1316
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By the numbers, because......well, because we can. Can't Post

Before I get too into it, I'd just like to say that numbers don't always mean everything when it comes to box office, ticket sales, etc...but they can at least tell us a few things, and some people like to look deeper into them...like me. So here goes nothing.

It would seem like a reasonable statement to say that Desolation of Smaug will outperform Unexpected Journey, and in turn There and Back Again will outperform DOS. Some people don't like comparisons to LOTR, but each of those movies outdid the previous one on almost every level.

AUJ had solid box office numbers, home video sales, opening weekend, and fan reception, for the most part. If we were to go by LOTR standards, DOS should outdo all of those. This means that it will get roughly $1.1 billion+, $90 million opening, and stellar sales and reception.

Now we also know that AUJ got the numbers it did partly because of the fact that it was the first film to return to ME in 10 years. People who liked LOTR wanted to see more. It also gained new fans, such as young children and their parents, or other new fans in general.

With DOS, we get a bunch of new characters, locations, themes, tones, and story. Plus we get Smaug. Another chance to see 48fps. A darker film. Legolas. The list just goes on. We could also look ahead to TABA, with additional new things, plus the ending of ME on film for a good long while. Along with more bookends and connections with LOTR, a huge epic battle, and everything PJ & Co. has left in the tank, we could see another masterpiece in the making.

In general, every movie(LOTR) just felt "bigger, better and longer" than the previous one. Each film has more work put into it than the previous one, at least that's the way it seemed in the special features. More effects shots per film as well. (around 540 for FOTR, around 799 for TT, and around 1488 for ROTK, can't remember exactly).

With all of that being said, what is everyone's honest opinion in regards to the status of the next two films by the numbers. Will they hold up to the projections and continually gain numbers, or will they slip back?

"Only, you've never done a hard day's work." - Merry

(This post was edited by Misty Mountain Hop on Oct 28 2013, 6:25pm)

Subject User Time
By the numbers, because......well, because we can. Misty Mountain Hop Send a private message to Misty Mountain Hop Oct 28 2013, 6:16pm
    My guess Elessar Send a private message to Elessar Oct 28 2013, 6:24pm
    After AUJ... Arannir Send a private message to Arannir Oct 28 2013, 6:31pm
        Agreed, AUJ +/- $100m Estel78 Send a private message to Estel78 Oct 28 2013, 7:37pm
            But Annatar598 Send a private message to Annatar598 Oct 28 2013, 7:57pm
                That's a great point about age. Misty Mountain Hop Send a private message to Misty Mountain Hop Oct 28 2013, 8:03pm
                Cumberbatch is overrated Estel78 Send a private message to Estel78 Oct 28 2013, 8:14pm
                    I hope you do not... Arannir Send a private message to Arannir Oct 28 2013, 8:54pm
                    Quite the contrary Annatar598 Send a private message to Annatar598 Oct 28 2013, 9:44pm
                        Give me one blockbuster close to release that doesn't top the amazon list... Estel78 Send a private message to Estel78 Oct 28 2013, 10:03pm
                        Danger Arannir Send a private message to Arannir Oct 28 2013, 10:06pm
                            I think we have to reign in just how many Dragons, especially of the talking variety, we have seen. Falkor, AinurOlorin Send a private message to AinurOlorin Oct 29 2013, 4:34am
                                Oh no, I do agree. Arannir Send a private message to Arannir Oct 29 2013, 11:01am
                                    The Game of Throne Dragons (and their lovely "mother") are gorgeous. lol AinurOlorin Send a private message to AinurOlorin Oct 29 2013, 8:10pm
            Yup. Nagini6 Send a private message to Nagini6 Oct 28 2013, 8:20pm
            Of course Elessar Send a private message to Elessar Oct 28 2013, 10:26pm
                Some? Estel78 Send a private message to Estel78 Oct 28 2013, 11:01pm
                    Gut feeling Elessar Send a private message to Elessar Oct 28 2013, 11:25pm
                        A barely fresh RT critics rating i would consider middling. Estel78 Send a private message to Estel78 Oct 29 2013, 7:37am
                            The public Elessar Send a private message to Elessar Oct 29 2013, 10:28am
                    No, Estel, 1 billion and a 300 plus million domestic is still a big deal, when one considers what AinurOlorin Send a private message to AinurOlorin Oct 29 2013, 5:05am
    Nice post...I would have to say... MasterOrc Send a private message to MasterOrc Oct 28 2013, 7:00pm
    Guessing 1.2 - 1.3 (give-or-take) but not over 1.5 or under 1.1 Escapist Send a private message to Escapist Oct 28 2013, 10:41pm
        Good guess Elessar Send a private message to Elessar Oct 28 2013, 10:54pm
            A lot of the audience chatter I heard after Escapist Send a private message to Escapist Oct 28 2013, 11:02pm
                Most people Elessar Send a private message to Elessar Oct 28 2013, 11:28pm
                    The approval rating from the general audience is 82% on my RT. Escapist Send a private message to Escapist Oct 28 2013, 11:38pm
                        Cool! Elessar Send a private message to Elessar Oct 28 2013, 11:41pm
                        Percentages on reviews are deceptive, anyway starlesswinter Send a private message to starlesswinter Oct 29 2013, 7:46am
        Thor? Estel78 Send a private message to Estel78 Oct 28 2013, 11:08pm
            Thor Elessar Send a private message to Elessar Oct 28 2013, 11:29pm
                I was thinking of the Avengers buzz as well. // Escapist Send a private message to Escapist Oct 28 2013, 11:39pm
                    It's just got everything going for it Elessar Send a private message to Elessar Oct 28 2013, 11:43pm
                        Oh wait - I was looking at the domestic number -doh! Escapist Send a private message to Escapist Oct 28 2013, 11:46pm
                            Yeah ... sorry about that ... Escapist Send a private message to Escapist Oct 28 2013, 11:47pm
                                It's all good Elessar Send a private message to Elessar Oct 28 2013, 11:55pm
                                    I need Escapist Send a private message to Escapist Oct 28 2013, 11:57pm
                                        I hear that lol Elessar Send a private message to Elessar Oct 29 2013, 12:28am
            Speaking of the Avengers buzz, though Escapist Send a private message to Escapist Oct 28 2013, 11:41pm
            I tenatively agree here. I am wary. It all depends. If Thor makes about the same increase, for its flux AinurOlorin Send a private message to AinurOlorin Oct 29 2013, 5:08am
    I say Ham_Sammy Send a private message to Ham_Sammy Oct 28 2013, 11:18pm
    Decrease Bernhardina Send a private message to Bernhardina Oct 29 2013, 9:27am
    It is funny... Arannir Send a private message to Arannir Oct 29 2013, 10:39am
        Reasonable expectations Estel78 Send a private message to Estel78 Oct 29 2013, 11:47am
            Reasonable maybe, but speculations nontheless. And not shared by everybody. Arannir Send a private message to Arannir Oct 29 2013, 12:01pm
        Expectations change sometimes Escapist Send a private message to Escapist Oct 30 2013, 1:05am
    Wolf of Wall Street pushed back for a holiday release cats16 Send a private message to cats16 Oct 29 2013, 10:17pm

 
 
 

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