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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
outch There and Back Again (out next year) has serious contest
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Welsh hero
Gondor


Aug 25 2013, 2:24pm

Post #1 of 28 (1656 views)
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outch There and Back Again (out next year) has serious contest Can't Post

TABA is out on the 17th then on the 19th Minions is out. Despicable Me 2 made $83,517,315 on it's opening weekend and the first hobbit film made $84,617,303. could be big contest for the opening weekend

-Irfon

Twitter: @IrfonPennant
middle earth timeline FB: https://www.facebook.com/MiddleEarth1


Shagrat
Gondor

Aug 25 2013, 2:28pm

Post #2 of 28 (711 views)
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That's a long way away [In reply to] Can't Post

Minions might easily be moved.


TheCoon
Lorien

Aug 25 2013, 2:46pm

Post #3 of 28 (697 views)
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love DM and the minions [In reply to] Can't Post

but if minions i notmoved TABA will OBLITERATE itnit is no threat when auj made that money in it opening weekend it was a December record dm2 came out in the middle of summer and it is a shirt family animated film so thats actually a bt underwhelming

(This post was edited by Altaira on Sep 15 2013, 6:14pm)


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Aug 25 2013, 3:00pm

Post #4 of 28 (649 views)
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I doubt about "OBLITERATE" [In reply to] Can't Post

DM2 is making more money than AUJ in North America and December is not known to be a bad month for box office, the two biggest movies ever were released in December after all. $360m for DM2 is definitely not underwhelming, not one bit. The only thing that could hinder it reaching DM2 heights is that it's not DM3 but a spin-off. On the other hand, the minions are the most popular thing about the franchise.


Arannir
Valinor


Aug 25 2013, 4:03pm

Post #5 of 28 (584 views)
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I think... [In reply to] Can't Post

...if DoS is received (reviews, WoM and BO wise) on a similar level as AUJ or better, TABA's final (!) BO will not be influenced that badly by the competition - at least it should not make it much harder to keep it around the 1 bio mark.

At the very least, Minions would not be a satisfactory explanation for a significant drop, if DoS holds or increases the bar. That would imho only be possible if DoS scares away people so much they would not be interested in the grande finale anymore.

(All of this, of course, based on the prediction that DoS will not already drop significantly.)



ďA dragon is no idle fancy. Whatever may be his origins, in fact or invention, the dragon in legend is a potent creation of menís imagination, richer in significance than his barrow is in gold.Ē J.R.R. Tolkien

Words of wisdom that should be remembered - both by critics, purists and anyone in between.


Elessar
Valinor


Aug 25 2013, 4:04pm

Post #6 of 28 (591 views)
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Not worried [In reply to] Can't Post

I love the minions and would see that movie but the $83 DM2 made (I saw it opening weekend) was in the summer. Parents have need things to do with their kids so summer movie numbers are always higher. I just don't see the minions making any where close to the numbers TABA will make.



Estel78
Tol Eressea

Aug 25 2013, 4:18pm

Post #7 of 28 (558 views)
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So you think Minions will drop off that much from DM2? [In reply to] Can't Post

Why? Because it's December? There are many examples of very successful movies in December, LOTR, Narnia, Sherlock Holmes, I Am Legend are just a few of them, and not to forget the two biggest movies ever. The notion that summer movies always make more i think is far from the truth. Like i said, it might make less because it's not DM3.


Elessar
Valinor


Aug 25 2013, 4:28pm

Post #8 of 28 (543 views)
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Yes, I do [In reply to] Can't Post

Because its December and a kids movies. I don't recall the last time a kids movie did much in December. Here in the states little kids who will be seeing this will be getting improved around by their parents as they do family functions for Christmas. Parents won't have a lot of time to take the little ones to see this movie the way the do during the summer. Trust me as someone who lives in the US I have a pretty good idea of how the Holidays work here. All of those examples are more young adult movies/adult movies not straight out kids movies. I expect Minions to make $50-60 million opening weekend to be in the area. Not ever summer movie because some flop but most summer movies do better than movies released in December.

The best straight up kids movie released in December is the Alvin and the Chipmunks sequel at $48 million opening weekend. So, I expect the popularity of the minions to add a little more hitting in the area I said above. I expect the next two Hobbit films to hit in the $85-100 million opening weekends.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/...th/?mo=12&p=.htm



(This post was edited by Elessar on Aug 25 2013, 4:33pm)


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Aug 25 2013, 4:49pm

Post #9 of 28 (533 views)
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I consider Narnia a kids movie. [In reply to] Can't Post

And i don't recall the last time a big kids movie was released in December. Alvin did very good for what it is.

Again, i disagree about summer movies doing better than December movies. There is absolutely no evidence.


Elessar
Valinor


Aug 25 2013, 5:00pm

Post #10 of 28 (524 views)
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Its not a kids movie [In reply to] Can't Post

Young Adult movie I'd give ya that but Narnia is more of a YA movie or that was what made up most of the audiences I saw it with. I'd say the chipmunks movie was probably the last one because kids movies tend to be summer movies for a reason, so parents have something to drag their kids to during their two month break. I do think the Minions movie if it stays in December will hit at least $50 million.

There isn't? Ok lol Out of the top 15 all-time world wide grossing movies 4 were released in the winter, 10 in the summer, and one in the spring. There is plenty of evidence that Summer movies make more money. You can stick your head in the sand all you want but the facts are what they are.

All-Time
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

The Lord of the Rings, The Hobbit, Avatar, and Titanic are exceptions to the rule of which movies end up making the most money.



Estel78
Tol Eressea

Aug 25 2013, 5:28pm

Post #11 of 28 (491 views)
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I'm not sticking anything in the sand [In reply to] Can't Post

There is a reason for most big movies being summer movies and that is simply the sheer number of big summer releases. Between May and August (well, August not so much) there is plenty of time. It just happened to become the biggest movie season and it has only partially to do with people having holidays because in May - the start of the summer movie season - the majority still go to school or work.

But there have been numerous big movies in November/December as well. Out of the top 20, 7 were released in that timeframe. There is no definite evidence that summer movies make more. The only way to verify would be to turn back time and release the same movie at another time.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Aug 25 2013, 5:31pm)


Elessar
Valinor


Aug 25 2013, 5:41pm

Post #12 of 28 (476 views)
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Whatever floats your boat [In reply to] Can't Post

If you can't look at that list and see the higher total movies are coming from the summer then I've got nothing more to add.



Welsh hero
Gondor


Aug 25 2013, 6:19pm

Post #13 of 28 (474 views)
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Here's the thing... [In reply to] Can't Post

It will effect the hobbit Box office. Whether or not it will beat it is not the point, it will effect the opening weekend. The Hobbit will do a little less on the opening weekend that it will if it wasn't up agaist minions. In box office, a large part of the succses is what a film is up against. If it's another film a lot of people want to see, it will effect the box office.

-Irfon

Twitter: @IrfonPennant
middle earth timeline FB: https://www.facebook.com/MiddleEarth1


Sinister71
Tol Eressea


Aug 25 2013, 6:23pm

Post #14 of 28 (447 views)
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If it does effect it [In reply to] Can't Post

it will IMO be very very slight, not really enough to say so Wink


patrickk
Rohan

Aug 25 2013, 9:37pm

Post #15 of 28 (354 views)
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Note: three quarter of the Box Office is outside the US and on different opening dates [In reply to] Can't Post

Discussing opening weekend in the US for international films like the Hobbit does not make a lot of sense in the context of the overall Box Office. Where I am it won't oepn until Dec 26, and in Asia not unitl Chinese New Yaear, and the like. In a one point something billion dollar grossing movie whether it open at $70 or $80 million in the US does not count for much


dormouse
Half-elven


Aug 25 2013, 9:41pm

Post #16 of 28 (380 views)
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Aren't people allowed to go the the cinema twice if they want? [In reply to] Can't Post

Sorry, but I don't see why this is a problem. Last year AUJ and Les Miserables opened around the same time. I wanted to see both; I saw both. If there's only one I want to see I'll see just one, and if none then I'll stay home. Isn't that what everyone does?

If anything, I'd say several good films favour one another, because people going to one might see the trailer for another and decide to see that too.


Elessar
Valinor


Aug 25 2013, 10:46pm

Post #17 of 28 (337 views)
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Double dipping [In reply to] Can't Post

I probably won't see minions opening weekend because ill see TABA twice regular and then HRF 3D. However, you can bet your bottom dollar I will see my favorite little yellow guys during my winter break.



Ham_Sammy
Tol Eressea

Aug 25 2013, 10:54pm

Post #18 of 28 (369 views)
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I remember when RoTK opened [In reply to] Can't Post

People were saying how Big Fish was a serious contender. Eventually I think Fish was moved to the first week of January or something. But i remember all the hullabaloo over it.

it's all fine. I will just enjoy it and, sadly, the end to Jackson's Tolkien on screen for what it is and not worry too much about the competition.

Thank you for your questions, now go sod off and do something useful - Martin Freeman Twitter chat 3/1/13


Elessar
Valinor


Aug 25 2013, 11:05pm

Post #19 of 28 (338 views)
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Don't be surprised [In reply to] Can't Post

If Minions doesn't get moved. Seems more like a summer movie and by nature more likely to do better if done in the summer.



Sinister71
Tol Eressea


Aug 25 2013, 11:10pm

Post #20 of 28 (333 views)
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But hasn't TABA been moved to dec 2014? // [In reply to] Can't Post

 


Elessar
Valinor


Aug 26 2013, 12:05am

Post #21 of 28 (322 views)
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Yeah [In reply to] Can't Post

Sorry, I was referencing Minions being moved.



Sinister71
Tol Eressea


Aug 26 2013, 12:07am

Post #22 of 28 (292 views)
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Gotcha... // [In reply to] Can't Post

 


Ham_Sammy
Tol Eressea

Aug 26 2013, 1:00am

Post #23 of 28 (273 views)
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I agree [In reply to] Can't Post

Summer movies make more money anyway due to the holidays and people, especially kids, being out of school. It wouldn't surprise me. Actually keeping in December would be an outlier I would think for this type of movie.

Thank you for your questions, now go sod off and do something useful - Martin Freeman Twitter chat 3/1/13


Elessar
Valinor


Aug 26 2013, 1:13am

Post #24 of 28 (263 views)
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School [In reply to] Can't Post

100% agreed with ya. Especially kids movies. Parents need something to kill a few hours once in a while in the two months off. Summers go by quick but having something like this helps pass the time.



Arandir
Gondor


Aug 26 2013, 7:21am

Post #25 of 28 (227 views)
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I remember the same issue happened with ... [In reply to] Can't Post

PJ's 'King Kong' back in 2005. Both the film and 'The Chronicles of Narnia' were released within the same week or two just before Christmas.

Due to the popular demand for Narnia, King Kong (although it still managed to do well at the box office) suffered a bit at the hands of the former. And most probably, Narnia would have gained more profit had King Kong been released at a later date.

It's as if the two films eliminated each other's greater prospects at the box office ...

'A Tolkienist's Perspective' Blog
'How Peter Jackson inches closer to making 'The Silmarillion'

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