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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
What if Desolation of Smaug Flops
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Registered User

Jul 18 2013, 12:01am

Post #1 of 157 (4382 views)
What if Desolation of Smaug Flops Can't Post

Hey I am new and I wanted to post what I am worried about. I am just worried that Desolation of Smaug will flop With the reception (mixed) that the first Hobbit movie got and the bored people in the movie theaters. These people might not go see DOS in movie theaters. And the general audience might not be as willing to see the second one either seeing it first hand or after hearing about the reception of the first. The general audience includes people who went because it was related to LOTR and didn't like it might not come back. Leaving only the people who truly enjoyed the first movie and die hards willing to see if it gets better. With only half those people or less coming back DOS might actually flop. I hope I am wrong.

I hope this makes sense.

I want to hear other peoples opinons.

Tol Eressea

Jul 18 2013, 12:27am

Post #2 of 157 (2586 views)
It might very well make less than AUJ... [In reply to] Can't Post

...for the reasons you mentioned, but even if it loses half its audience (which it won't), i'd hardly call a movie that makes over $500m a flop.


Jul 18 2013, 1:18am

Post #3 of 157 (2449 views)
Here's too a good marketing campaign! [In reply to] Can't Post

I know some here have said they were very disappointed with how Warner Brothers marketed the first film (I am not among this group). From what I felt, the teaser trailer for the Desolation of Smaug, attached to Man of Steel, went over fairly well with the general audience (I know there is no real evidence for that, but I'm going off of what I've seen online and from my experience in the theater). I heard and read many positive reactions from crowds, ranging in excitement simply because they liked the first film and were excited for this one too, or that this trailer blew them away with its energy, great shots from the film, and Smaug's look being revealed at the end.

Of course I'm sure there are many, here and around the world, who don't feel this way. I think that DOS will be a little higher AUJ's numbers worldwide, with a possible slight drop or increase (my money is on increase) domestically. I think the next couple(?) of trailers will really get people excited even more when autumn comes around. Thor and Catching Fire are the only *big* competitors, so I think people will go see it for a good time, at the very least.

All purely based from my probably-soon-to-be-completely-wrong-in-December opinion.



Jul 18 2013, 3:19am

Post #4 of 157 (2344 views)
Wouldn't worry about it too much [In reply to] Can't Post

 I'd expect DOS to make at least 700-800 Million dollars worldwide, which is still an obscene amount of money and more money than any other film so far this year save Iron Man 3.

My Sam Gamgee is indeed a reflexion of the English soldier, of the privates and batmen I knew in the 1914 war, and recognized as so far superior to myself- J.R.R. Tolkien


Jul 18 2013, 3:36am

Post #5 of 157 (2411 views)
If there is a likely flop [In reply to] Can't Post

it would be TaBA.

AUJ: 82% of 317, 87 (audience) liked it and 65% of 267 (critics) liked it and it made $1,017,003,568.

DoS: So many people want to see Beorn, Thranduil, Smaug, and Legolas as well as all the fans of Bilbo, Gandalf, and Thorin - and there is a bigger necromancer plot - perhaps even more people will come out for this one. But even if it is just 80% of $1,017,003,568, that could only be considered a flop by the most ambitious standards.

TaBA: This is where there could be a flop. If the CGI is sloppy in DoS. If the new characters don't fit. If the necromancer story line doesn't make sense. If the high hopes for Thranduil, Legolas, Tauriel, and Beorn are meh. If Smaug doesn't impress. That's where I could see a big drop happening and then everyone could say "should have had a bridge film instead!". But if The elves do impress, if Smaug rocks, if the CGI is consistently as good as we know it can be, and the adaptation holds together well - it could be growing BO numbers from movie to movie just like LotR.


Jul 18 2013, 3:38am

Post #6 of 157 (2299 views)
I really don't think it will flop [In reply to] Can't Post

I think plenty of people will watch it in theaters, both die-hards and mainstream folks. Look at the success of other franchises with a mixed audience of hardcore fans and casual viewers and tell me people didn't go and see the sequel regardless of whether the first film was flawed. I really don't think people need to be invested in a story or continuity anymore, they just want to see the next big spectacle which DOS certainly promises to be.

You're also leaving out that there are a great many die-hards who will go to see it multiple times on the big screen, whether to enjoy or nitpick or a little bit of both Wink


Jul 18 2013, 3:57am

Post #7 of 157 (2329 views)
That question makes no sense [In reply to] Can't Post

It's a logical impossibility. In no possible world can the next hobbit film suck...


Jul 18 2013, 4:30am

Post #8 of 157 (2242 views)
Well... [In reply to] Can't Post

A lot of people, such as myself, felt the first one wasn't all that good. I would say it's highly possible DOS will "suck".

"You're love of the halflings leaf has clearly slowed your mind"


Jul 18 2013, 4:42am

Post #9 of 157 (2280 views)
As I remarked on another post, I have not seen the DOS trailer [In reply to] Can't Post

and we go to the movies regularly. The marketing is skewed toward the fall season. I really cannot imagine a flop result, certainly not a bomb, as there are too many people who look forward to these films - most who have read the books and those familiar from pop culture and seeing LOTR and AUJ. I have not read The Hunger Games but I intend to see the movie. The same for the comic based movies, I am somewhat familiar the various superheroes, but am not a lore expert, that does not stop me from seeing the films.


Jul 18 2013, 4:55am

Post #10 of 157 (2238 views)
Lets see here..... [In reply to] Can't Post

The greatest dragon ever to be seen on the big screen and lets not forget it has an affection for gold Cool = no chance of a flop...... This film will be the largest grossing of the three...... I expect a broader kid audience due to Smaug and the love for Azog.....

The Shire

Jul 18 2013, 5:06am

Post #11 of 157 (2208 views)
It won't flop [In reply to] Can't Post

The first movie made a billion dollars. That more than covers the cost of all three movies and marketing. Pretty much any money they make from part 2 and 3 is just profit.

I suspect they will make less money but I think most will stick around to the end.

Smeagol Bagginsess

Jul 18 2013, 5:19am

Post #12 of 157 (2216 views)
'Flop' is a relative word [In reply to] Can't Post

If you mean a Box office flop? No. Most likely it'll still make at the very least 700 mn which is, according to BO a hit (but not a block-buster though by recent standards)

If you mean a Critical flop? Most likely it'll be yes. Most critics are giving PJ a good bashing with their reviews, most of which imo are their own false interpretations. And even if DOS has better action and better CGI, I think it's unlikely that critics will change their minds. Not that I think this asa parameter to judge a movie (poor Lone-Ranger guys!)

If you mean fan-popularity. That's the most debatable thing imo. Most of the purists including me won't like the changes. But still I can bet that atleast 80% of them are gonna pay at least one visit to the halls! Now,
the LOTR movies' income gradually increased which is purely based on the popularity of the previous movie. A lot many people didn't know about LotR before the release of FotR. So FotR has the least income of the three. FotR's success guaranteed TTT's income, a boost. Fueled by these two great movies, RotK's income sky-rocketed over the 1bn mark. And now, after a decade of controversies, expectations and hype and the public's wish to return to ME, guaranteed AUJ's economical success. Now we have only to see if AUJ was good enough to guarantee DOS a Box-office hit.
And even if it doesn't, I hope the most (against all hope) that Jackson retains some respect for Tolkien in the films.

PS: Note that AUJ has a fan-popularity of 83% on RT while RotK has 82%.


Jul 18 2013, 7:35am

Post #13 of 157 (2123 views)
Well, if it does, it does.... [In reply to] Can't Post

... and life will carry on just the same. And there's no earthly point worrying about it because there's nothing you can do.

But having said that, I don't think there's an icecube in an inferno's chance that DOS will flop. For all the negative comment beforehand, for all that there are people who hated it and seem set on hating the next one as well, there were plenty who really loved it - don't underestimate them. The angst about 48 fps is past now - people will be used to that. The glimpses we've had already suggest that this film will be more varied in terms of environments, peoples, drama - and so breathtakingly beautiful. AUJ was a huge box office success. DOS will be just the same.

And welcome to TORn!


Jul 18 2013, 7:42am

Post #14 of 157 (2128 views)
Why worry about what other people think of the film? [In reply to] Can't Post

Just as long as you like it, that's all that matters. Numbers and figures are just numbers and figures at the end of the day. I couldn't care less if other people think it is a "flop".

Unless they come here and start moaning, of course. Then a try and de-rail their threads by putting pictures of Azog in Micky Mouse ears, and mention the talking purse every five minutes.


Coming soon! The first TORn Amateur Symposium, starts Sunday 21st July in the Reading Room. Closing date for essay submission Sunday 14th July, but even if you don't submit, join us for some interesting discussion on some different and personal ways of looking at Tolkien's work.


Jul 18 2013, 8:34am

Post #15 of 157 (2100 views)
Since people like to note these things (including me) [In reply to] Can't Post

  ROTK has over 33 million votes/ratings/whatever, which is at least three times as much as any other movie I've seen on Rotten Tomatoes, including AUJ, which only has a few hundred thousand. (BTW, I think ROTK has 83 and AUJ 82) Not that any of these numbers mean much, but I like to know about them anyway! Wink

My Sam Gamgee is indeed a reflexion of the English soldier, of the privates and batmen I knew in the 1914 war, and recognized as so far superior to myself- J.R.R. Tolkien


Jul 18 2013, 8:52am

Post #16 of 157 (2130 views)
I don't think there's any chance that it will flop [In reply to] Can't Post

Too many people are looking forward to it – judging by the reactions online.

As to comments by 'haters', well, you get those for any successful film. From observing this phenomenon over the last ten years or so, it seems to me that it is mostly attention seekers and mischievous juveniles who troll boards in the hope of getting a rise from people who love the films. That they like to focus on negativity says something about them rather than the films they are posting about. (The same thing happened with LOTR, in a big way, even though the Internet was far less used at the time when those films came out than it is today.)

Roll on December – my sisters and I, and my mother, can hardly wait…

(This post was edited by Glorfindela on Jul 18 2013, 8:54am)


Jul 18 2013, 9:15am

Post #17 of 157 (2103 views)
The Foreign Markets [In reply to] Can't Post

I think that the chances of "The Desolation of Smaug" being a flop are slim and none. One reason is the foreign markets. I live in southeast Asia, and the word-of-mouth here about "The Hobbit: AUJ" was that it was "better than The Lord of The Rings". Mainly this is because people here love action-adventure films.Thus the $714 million foreign gross of AUJ was no surprise. And with the climax of DOS being hinted as the biggest action set piece Peter Jackson has directed to date, including one mighty pissed off dragon, the first 2 hours would need to be a complete bore fest for DOS not to repeat its numbers in the foreign markets. Domestically, even stuff like "Monsters University" and "Despicable Me 2" have done at least $240 million, so if DOS can't match or beat that, then it must have some serious problems!

Don't mess with my favorite female elf.


Jul 18 2013, 11:32am

Post #18 of 157 (2016 views)
Box office [In reply to] Can't Post

DoS flopping with critics? Yeah, i think that's most likely what will happen. But flopping at the box office? I don't see that happening at all.

The fact that this movie will have Smaug, Legolas and seemingly more action in it is enough reasons for me to believe it'll do even better than AUJ. If you look at the hype that is already surrounding this movie (example: when PJ releases stuff like the official poster, trailer, sneak peek and video blogs), i'm guessing 1.1 billion isn't so far-fetched.

I actually think TABA will have the most chances at "flopping" at the box office (by flopping i mean less than 1 billion). Although if it turns out that DoS will end with a cliffhanger of Smaug heading to Laketown, i guess that won't be an issue anymore either.

Tol Eressea

Jul 18 2013, 11:41am

Post #19 of 157 (2049 views)
Or maybe it's just people who were simply disappointed with the film... [In reply to] Can't Post

it seems to me that it is mostly attention seekers and mischievous juveniles who troll boards in the hope of getting a rise from people who love the films

Tol Eressea

Jul 18 2013, 11:59am

Post #20 of 157 (2005 views)
I think that it might lose viewership among some casual fans who disliked AUJ... [In reply to] Can't Post

I do know a couple of people who went to see AUJ based solely on the fact that they loved Jackson's LOTR movies, and a few of them were not happy with the more juvenile tone of TH (because they were expecting another LOTR). So I think DoS MIGHT lose some of those types of viewers. People who loved AUJ will obviously be back for DoS, and I'd say most of the die-hard Tolkienites who were disappointed with AUJ will also be back for DoS. I found AUJ a bit underwhelming, but I'll certainly be back for DoS. And assuming DoS isn't a total wash, I'll also go see TaBA.


Jul 18 2013, 12:15pm

Post #21 of 157 (2010 views)
Doubt it will flop, but it won't be a significant success either [In reply to] Can't Post

Even as a die-hard Tolkien fan who has watched every movie on the day it came out, I'm probably not going to bother with DoS. I'll watch it, but I'm not excited for it and will probably wait a few weeks before going to the cinema. Judging by the trailer and AUJ, it honestly looks dull to me. So I assume non fanatic audiences aren't exactly anticipating its release.

(This post was edited by QuackingTroll on Jul 18 2013, 12:17pm)


Jul 18 2013, 12:41pm

Post #22 of 157 (1972 views)
DoS [In reply to] Can't Post

From what I've observed, both in person and on the internets, the general audience generally liked AUJ. The Tolkien purists generally didn't; the film "experts" generally didn't. I'd say those who liked PJ's LotR mostly did.

Generally, that is :P

Everyone who I've talked to that really wasn't knowledgeable about LotR or never saw it seemed to enjoy AUJ.

And again, this is just what I've observed.

With the common man on our side, the film will not flop...at least from a box office stand point, which in the end is all that matters to the studio. IMO, if AUJ was a success, DoS will only do better with all that it has going for it.


Jul 18 2013, 12:59pm

Post #23 of 157 (1975 views)
DoS and TaBA won't flop and it won't matter if they do. [In reply to] Can't Post

AUJ was a huge box office success and has a high audience approval rating. People will go to see DoS.

IMO, the first trailer will attract people, not turn them off. In a couple of months the publicity machine will start up and audience expectations will start rising.

And even if DoS is not as successful commercially as AUJ, Warner Brothers would be fools not to release TaBA. With the filming all done, it would be better to make some money than none. So we'll still get to see both movies.

I really don't care what anyone else thinks of these movies and if they go to see them. I loved AUJ, I hope and expect to like DoS and am very happy to have the opportunity to see them. Great box office just gives me that opportunity.


Jul 18 2013, 1:09pm

Post #24 of 157 (1958 views)
That's an interesting conclusion... [In reply to] Can't Post

You're not excited over DOS and think the trailer looks dull, and therefore you assume that others feel the same way?

Now now Bill, you swore this was a battle between warriors, not a bunch of miss nancies, so warriors is what I brought

Metal Slug

Jul 18 2013, 1:27pm

Post #25 of 157 (1925 views)
I care -it matters. [In reply to] Can't Post

Kidding aside, I doubt it will flop compared to other recent films. The foreign markets seem to have grown tremendously compared to 10 years ago. It could flop critically by purists, movie reviewers, and people who like the book.

I'm hoping I like it better than AUJ, and I'm somewhere in the "middle" of Middle Earth. I'm not a purest in the strictest sense, I often find the Silmarillion dificult to read, maybe eve boring. But I do love the Third Age. I like Jackson's LOTR, not because they were better books, but because they seemed more real. Less CGI, less video game action, pitfalls, slapstick, and real peril. If Jackson runs rampant over Tolkien, I could go either way.

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