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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
DoS BO estimates?
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Arannir
Valinor

Feb 27 2013, 2:29pm

Post #1 of 62 (921 views)
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DoS BO estimates? Can't Post

Anyone so frank to throw in an estimate box office number for the Hobbit DoS?

Not that it is that important for fans and the regular moviegoer - but we need some "fun" things to do in between the Hobbit leaving cinemas and the DVDs and new trailers coming out, don't we ;)


(This post was edited by Arannir on Feb 27 2013, 2:30pm)


DanielLB
Immortal


Feb 27 2013, 3:09pm

Post #2 of 62 (504 views)
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No doubt it will be called a flop regardless. / [In reply to] Can't Post

 


(This post was edited by DanielLB on Feb 27 2013, 3:10pm)


Ham_Sammy
Tol Eressea

Feb 27 2013, 3:10pm

Post #3 of 62 (522 views)
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Higher [In reply to] Can't Post

I think it will be higher than AUJ. For one thing there is a lot of action in DoS which is going to appeal to a lot of moviegoers. The spiders, Barrels out of Bond, Seeing Smaug for the first time. This is where the story really gets going. I think it will be received better critically on some fronts. So I say more than AUJ. Not sure about numbers though.


Arannir
Valinor

Feb 27 2013, 3:29pm

Post #4 of 62 (479 views)
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Since... [In reply to] Can't Post

... audience reactions were pretty good as far as this is measurable, I hope it will make around the same amount of money. Maybe a bit more if the critics receive it better - otherwise maybe a bit less, since I doubt there will be much hype (at least compared to AUJ).

However, I am not so sure, especially about the critics. No matter how Smaug will be handled (dying or not dying) there might be a lot of uproar - again - that the three movie split was a mistake ("The damn dragon is still not dead... They did not actually accomplish anything." or "The dragon is dead - what's the point of another one?"). Not to say that I see it like that - but those furious about the split will surely watch out for any sign of padding and embellishment.

I guess my shot would be $950 Mio - $1,050 Bil.

But 2013 has proven how unpredictable those things are - anybody who would have predicted Avengers to cross the $1.5 bil mark and Skyfall crossing the $1 bil mark in February 2012 would not have received much supprt ;)


(This post was edited by Arannir on Feb 27 2013, 3:30pm)


Rostron2
Gondor


Feb 27 2013, 3:31pm

Post #5 of 62 (449 views)
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No clue. Hopefully just as high // [In reply to] Can't Post

 


Verbal_Daggers
The Shire


Feb 27 2013, 3:31pm

Post #6 of 62 (466 views)
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Difficult! [In reply to] Can't Post

Very very difficult to estimate the second movie's boxoffice at this stage - with not even a trailer released yet.

All I can say is that I hope that it will do as good or even better than the first part because PJ and his team put yet again sooo much work and effort into this trilogy - I'd hate for them to think at the end it wasn't a good idea to take on The Hobbit (since they did such an amazing job with the first part imo)

The first part received quite a lot of negative buzz in the beginning and had a very rocky start - and still it managed to get to 1 billion in the end. My hope is that the critics will have gotten over the 48 fps by the time they see the second chapter and will be a bit easier on DoS. If that is the case I think it might manage to rake in more dollars than the first part - especially since the story gets so much more interesting from now on :D

Let's hope for the best!


Elessar
Valinor


Feb 27 2013, 4:07pm

Post #7 of 62 (498 views)
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It will be [In reply to] Can't Post

By some no matter how much it makes. lol

I'm kidding all by the way.



(This post was edited by Elessar on Feb 27 2013, 4:14pm)


Ham_Sammy
Tol Eressea

Feb 27 2013, 4:09pm

Post #8 of 62 (439 views)
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It is way early [In reply to] Can't Post

I think a lot of it will depend honestly on the rendering of Smaug who I think we will see at the end. I have no doubt there will be critics who say "oh he's just dragging this out once again" but I think the overall audience gets the story. These same critics by the way I suspect have no problem sitting in front of their TV on Sunday morning watching a 3 hour football game during the fall. Just sayin'....


Xanaseb
Tol Eressea


Feb 27 2013, 4:22pm

Post #9 of 62 (425 views)
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LOL, well it depends on the amount of time we spend with the dwarves, they can be a rather smelly bunch... [In reply to] Can't Post

...then there's the grimey people of Laketown to consider


ok, I'm just messing around with ya'll Sly

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sauget.diblosio
Tol Eressea

Feb 27 2013, 6:52pm

Post #10 of 62 (368 views)
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My guess is that it will do about the same as [In reply to] Can't Post

TT did in relation to FotR ().

But i think it will be a LOT more well recieved critically than AUJ was, now that we have all the HFR, 1 book into 3, "it's not as good as Lotr" b.s. out of the way. Plus, i think it's going to be a lot better than AUJ in that we're going to be seeing loads of cool, new locations and characters (AUJ has a lot of similarities to FotR, which is just as true of the book as the movie), and the fact that i think that AUJ will suffer the most from the decision to make 2 films into 3-- the next two movies hopefully will have more time to be more well thought out, and won't feel as rushed, or thrown together (which is where i personally think most of AUJ's faults lie).


Roheryn
Grey Havens

Feb 27 2013, 10:02pm

Post #11 of 62 (315 views)
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They'll get to clean up in Laketown, though... [In reply to] Can't Post

not to mention the soon-to-be-infamous Parth Carrock bathing scene (c'mon, PJ! It's canon!).


Roheryn
Grey Havens

Feb 27 2013, 10:15pm

Post #12 of 62 (328 views)
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I estimate the overall BO won't be so bad in DOS... [In reply to] Can't Post

after all, isn't the Master of Laketown renowned for his strawberry bubble baths?

But in TABA? Hooo-wheee, you might need nose plugs for that one! The dwarves aren't too likely to stop ogling treasure long enough for a bath. Then lots of sweaty fighting dwarves, not to mention men, orcs and elves (oh, wait, the latter are too pretty for BO). And can't you imagine just how sweaty they get under all that armor?

In DOS, they've got at least five chances to clean up: the Parth Carrock bathing scene, at Beorn's, at the Elvenking's (c'mon, he's not all that bad and might let them take sponge-baths at least), in the river during their escape, and at Laketown.

In AUJ: two. At Bilbo's, and at Rivendell.

In TABA: none.

So, overall BO estimates: TABA > AUJ > DOS


Brethil
Half-elven


Feb 27 2013, 10:24pm

Post #13 of 62 (318 views)
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Fili has an advantage here [In reply to] Can't Post

Right out of the barrel, he will smell delightfully of apples.............mmmmmmmmmmm.........


Roheryn
Grey Havens

Feb 27 2013, 10:48pm

Post #14 of 62 (297 views)
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Good point! [In reply to] Can't Post

Kili's going to be jealous. Not to mention Thorin, who will be disgruntled not just at having been sealed up in a barrel, but at now smelling like eu-de-old-wine to boot.


Ham_Sammy
Tol Eressea

Feb 28 2013, 12:14am

Post #15 of 62 (281 views)
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Thorin [In reply to] Can't Post

And I want to hear Bilbo slap his legs and say "Well..are you alive or are you dead"? To make him even more angry. ;)


Ham_Sammy
Tol Eressea

Feb 28 2013, 1:18am

Post #16 of 62 (257 views)
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Yes! [In reply to] Can't Post

Topless dwarves and Hobbit FTW!


Bellerock
Rivendell

Feb 28 2013, 1:35am

Post #17 of 62 (255 views)
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"Dragging out" the dragon . . . [In reply to] Can't Post

Very funny!


Owain
Tol Eressea


Feb 28 2013, 2:43am

Post #18 of 62 (238 views)
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$1.3 Billion ish. // [In reply to] Can't Post

 

Middle Earth is New Zealand!

"Question everything, embrace the bad, and hold on to the good."


imin
Valinor


Feb 28 2013, 9:44am

Post #19 of 62 (206 views)
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About $1.2 billion [In reply to] Can't Post

i think the film will be better and so will get better critical reviews - this could sway some people to go and see it who may not have done so with some unfavourable reviews of AUJ.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Feb 28 2013, 1:02pm

Post #20 of 62 (188 views)
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AUJ +/- $100m [In reply to] Can't Post

It'll either go up slightly or down.


Elessar
Valinor


Feb 28 2013, 5:04pm

Post #21 of 62 (158 views)
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That's what I'm thinking [In reply to] Can't Post

It won't make a ton more but I will make more. Most sequels make more than the last in series where fans are really into the series. It's possible it could make less but I'd bet my collection that it makes more.



Brethil
Half-elven


Feb 28 2013, 7:02pm

Post #22 of 62 (135 views)
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In what time frame do we speculate? [In reply to] Can't Post

Will it make the mark quicker, because of the existing audience base? Or same pace, same run? Its same time of year as AUJ. What else is slated to open that would be competition in December and perhaps slow the take?


imin
Valinor


Feb 28 2013, 7:11pm

Post #23 of 62 (134 views)
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I think it will reach 1 billion [In reply to] Can't Post

quicker and then overtake whatever the final BO takings for AUJ will be.

I don't think AUJ got to 1 billion very fast (still not quite there) compared to what i thought it would do. But then i assumed it would make more than it has.

I dont think many studios would put there tentpole movies out at the same time as DOS but it does go into award movie time - but those are after different audiences and usually have much lower BO anyway.

I think the audience base was already there just as it was for FOTR though it will be more so now its the second in the series as like Elessar says - the first movie of a series usually makes the least.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Feb 28 2013, 7:15pm

Post #24 of 62 (133 views)
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That applies to less established or new franchises more so, though [In reply to] Can't Post


In Reply To
the first movie of a series usually makes the least.


Hobbit is the prequel to LOTR, the return to Middle Earth after a longer hiatus. Which is why i think DOS could also drop from AUJ.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Feb 28 2013, 7:18pm)


Brethil
Half-elven


Feb 28 2013, 8:30pm

Post #25 of 62 (117 views)
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Hope so. I checked out what we know of Dec. so far [In reply to] Can't Post

Its felt like a crawl but maybe because we are watching so closely.

I looked on IMDb just to get an idea of what's slated so far for December and what we will face in competition. (Did a double Krav today, Imin, so nice to sit for a while!Smile)

We have Tyler Perry doing Madea's Christmas. Can't be anything but casual about it. Will open later than DOS probably as well. Yawn.

Anchorman 2. Buzz appears to be negative, as it seems the film community feels its unlikely to rival the first comedy, and potentially be a real stinker. Not worrying.

Monument Men. Hmm, George Clooney, and the buzz is "this year's Argo" Ugh. With a strong cast. Will take a chunk of the market definitely. It's a different genre at least, but what a broad appeal. (Hmm, Thorin vs Clooney... Equals.... Nerds vs herds?)

Saving Mr Birds. Another STRONG cast here, and it's got Walt Disney in it. Lots of good buzz here. Some potential for competition. It seems like a nice warm fuzzy holiday film.

Walking With Dinosaurs. TONS of CGI, production very much under wraps. Don't know about script quality, the buzz is only talking about the technical aspects of the film. (Competition for the tech categories? And Saturn class competitior as well.)

Jack Ryan. Action/adventure with Chris Pine, who is already a huge draw, and of course will have Into Darkness potentially to bank on as well. Buzz is positive. Might be another good chunk, hope its a later opening to offset. Might be a Christmas day opener, giving us a bit of time.

47 Ronin. Samurai flick. Supposedly fraught with staff, spending and editing issues. Already bumped opening date .Not worried. PLUS its got KEANU REEVES, the cinematic equvalent of an Acme anvil.

The Secret life of Walter Mitty. Can't see it dloing all that much. Like a comfort film to fill in a few hours.

So far in our genre the other competitior is WWD. Monument Men worries me, and Jack Ryan. Marketing for Monument Men will likely be a killer firestorm. Hope WB kicks things up a notch. Saving Mr. Birds could go either way here in US I think.


(This post was edited by Brethil on Feb 28 2013, 8:34pm)

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