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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
TH finally opens today in China
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macfalk
Valinor


Feb 21 2013, 11:11pm

Post #1 of 53 (2049 views)
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TH finally opens today in China Can't Post

So we're finally going to know for sure if AUJ will break 1 billion or not. Does anyone knows when the opening weekend numbers for China will be released? This will be very interesting because China is apparantly the most unpredictable market in the world so it could go either way, really.



The greatest adventure is what lies ahead.


cats16
Tol Eressea

Feb 21 2013, 11:19pm

Post #2 of 53 (1041 views)
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I believe [In reply to] Can't Post

the early numbers for Skyfall came out on a Sunday, like other international markets. Don't quote me on that, but that's what I recall happening.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Feb 21 2013, 11:20pm

Post #3 of 53 (1128 views)
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First "report" [In reply to] Can't Post


Quote
Midnight Hobbit seems even worse than Skyfall.....at least in Wanda.


Wanda is a theater owner. Interesting tidbit, they also own the american AMC Theaters. China is taking over the world. Wink


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Feb 21 2013, 11:22pm)


imin
Valinor


Feb 21 2013, 11:22pm

Post #4 of 53 (1052 views)
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It's so close to 1 billion dollars [In reply to] Can't Post

I can't see it not making it to be honest.

Just for fun how much do you (and anyone else) think the film will make whilst in China? I am going for $70 million.


macfalk
Valinor


Feb 21 2013, 11:24pm

Post #5 of 53 (1105 views)
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"Even worse" [In reply to] Can't Post

That sort of implies that Skyfall was dissapointing at the Chinese market. Looking at their current total for Skyfall now though (59 million), that's pretty good, though?



The greatest adventure is what lies ahead.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Feb 21 2013, 11:25pm

Post #6 of 53 (1054 views)
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$45m [In reply to] Can't Post

Maybe i'm overreacting but based on early midnight reports i don't see it surpassing Skyfall.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Feb 21 2013, 11:26pm

Post #7 of 53 (1039 views)
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Some people may have had too high expectations. [In reply to] Can't Post

$60m seems fine to me. Bond is less popular in Asia.


Bombadil
Half-elven


Feb 21 2013, 11:34pm

Post #8 of 53 (999 views)
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Bomby. .MUST remind you?....the Chinese LOVE Dragons! [In reply to] Can't Post

 


MasterOrc
Rivendell


Feb 21 2013, 11:37pm

Post #9 of 53 (1018 views)
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Estel..... [In reply to] Can't Post

You never overreact Wink ...I agree $60 million sounds about right....


Lio
Lorien


Feb 22 2013, 12:29am

Post #10 of 53 (970 views)
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I've got my fingers crossed! But one thing's kind of bugging me... [In reply to] Can't Post

I really don't know anything the market, but I hope the movie does well! Who knows, maybe it really will be pushed over the billion mark.

At the same time, does anyone think that opening so much later in China than the rest of the world might hurt its chances? By this time people might have already seen pirated copies and whatnot. Or are late openings like this the norm in China? I'm really curious to know.

Want to chat? AIM me at Yami Liokaiser!


Bombadil
Half-elven


Feb 22 2013, 12:57am

Post #11 of 53 (953 views)
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We have had a poster from mainland China.. [In reply to] Can't Post

Hopefully
he pipes in!


cats16
Tol Eressea

Feb 22 2013, 1:03am

Post #12 of 53 (919 views)
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My guess is [In reply to] Can't Post

43 million. I know it's a really random number, but that's about where I'd put it. But I definitely hope the film makes oodles more than that!


Elk2013
The Shire


Feb 22 2013, 1:22am

Post #13 of 53 (857 views)
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you overreacted indeed [In reply to] Can't Post

went to watch the midnight opening IMAX3D with 16 lotr fans. Everyone was thrilled when we are done. Much better than skyfall I'm sure.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Feb 22 2013, 2:06am

Post #14 of 53 (812 views)
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Anecdotal evidence... [In reply to] Can't Post

...is really meaningless. Your show was well attended - great! Doesn't really tell me how the other shows are doing, now does it? Wink


Elessar
Valinor


Feb 22 2013, 2:25am

Post #15 of 53 (785 views)
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$65-70 million [In reply to] Can't Post

I'll put some faith in the Chinese market.



AinurOlorin
Half-elven


Feb 22 2013, 3:16am

Post #16 of 53 (773 views)
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I think, based on the type of movie it is, it has great chances. I was looking at [In reply to] Can't Post

a number of the other films that released there, and found that, if they released at all in China, type was indicative of success, with genre films involving superheroes or otherwise supernaturals and paranormals doing the best. Also, the more spectacle, the better the films seem to do. Also, as these were also films that came out this year, and likely released later there than here, all pirated and bootleg effects would also have applied. You will not be surprised to learn that Batman and Spiderman both made roughly 50 million there (both doing better by far in China than did The Hunger games). It will come as no surprise that The Avengers made 84 million. What may surprise you is that the lesser blockbuster (both in terms of U.S.A. and global gross and in terms of critical reception) Men In Black 3 made 77 million, falling only behind The Avengers and only by a little. The Hobbit is the type of movie that many Chineses audiences seem to enjoy (and certainly better, by most estimates, than Men In Black, which it far out performed here and globally), so I think there is a good chance of it making at least 50 million there.


That said, I don't think WB and MGM did it any favours by delaying it's release there so long. It would certainly have made more than whatever it ends up getting, had it released there more closely to its release in other markets.

"Hear me, hounds of Sauron, Gandalf is here! Fly if you value your foul skins, I will shrivel you from tail to snout if you step within this circle!"

"Do not be to eager to deal out death in judgement. Even the very wise cannot see all ends."

(This post was edited by AinurOlorin on Feb 22 2013, 3:21am)


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Feb 22 2013, 3:29am

Post #17 of 53 (789 views)
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WB has little say [In reply to] Can't Post

The Chinese film... body or whatever it's called, decides when a film gets released.


AinurOlorin
Half-elven


Feb 22 2013, 3:32am

Post #18 of 53 (763 views)
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Interesting. Creepy and interesting. lol [In reply to] Can't Post

At least they are letting it air there.

"Hear me, hounds of Sauron, Gandalf is here! Fly if you value your foul skins, I will shrivel you from tail to snout if you step within this circle!"

"Do not be to eager to deal out death in judgement. Even the very wise cannot see all ends."


Arannir
Valinor

Feb 22 2013, 8:28am

Post #19 of 53 (684 views)
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Journey to the West... [In reply to] Can't Post

... simply rules the BO in China right now. And will probably hurt the Hobbit numbers, at least those for the opening weekend.


DanielLB
Immortal


Feb 22 2013, 8:34am

Post #20 of 53 (673 views)
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Anything China adds is a bonus [In reply to] Can't Post

If you ask me, AUJ has already been a great success without a country with a population 27% greater than the US and the UK combined. Even if it only makes $100 thousand, the film was still a global success.


Bombadil
Half-elven


Feb 22 2013, 8:42am

Post #21 of 53 (650 views)
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Elk2013 lives in mainland China she should keep us up to date!// [In reply to] Can't Post

 


Elk2013
The Shire


Feb 22 2013, 10:41am

Post #22 of 53 (640 views)
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with pleasure, Bomby! [In reply to] Can't Post

 


Bombadil
Half-elven


Feb 22 2013, 11:10am

Post #23 of 53 (625 views)
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Yipp-ee!... First question? [In reply to] Can't Post

Was it translated or subTitled..?

The dragon kite in the prologue
... how cool was that?

The East Asian look or Mongolian
kinda taste of Dale?
(The International gathering
Of all kinds of peoples in Dale
should appeal to all!)


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Feb 22 2013, 12:03pm

Post #24 of 53 (658 views)
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Update... [In reply to] Can't Post


Quote
Midnight Hobbit: 1.14M Yuan / 24000 admssions

Compared to Midnight Skyfall:1.7M Yuan/43000 admissions


It'll probably have an opening day lower than Journey to the West's 13th day. Unsure


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Feb 22 2013, 12:03pm)


Arannir
Valinor

Feb 22 2013, 12:41pm

Post #25 of 53 (617 views)
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Ratio... [In reply to] Can't Post

If the ratio between Hobbit and Skyfall (67%) stays like this, however, it would be enough to reach the billion, unless the Hobbit numbers drop faster (which I hope they won't once JTTW slows down).


I guess it was expected that it will not beat JTTW even on its 13th day, since this is nothing short of a BO phenomenon right now.

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