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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
How do you think the Golden Compass' box office performance will impact The Hobbit?
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BuckyUnderbelly
Lorien


Dec 10 2007, 9:57pm

Post #26 of 38 (599 views)
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They will if it does well on DVD. [In reply to] Can't Post

Green-Lote? Greened-Lit? Wink


"In Hollywood the screenplay is a fire hydrant. And there's a line of dogs around the block." -- Frank Miller


Patty
Immortal


Dec 10 2007, 9:59pm

Post #27 of 38 (647 views)
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So, Bucky are you saying... [In reply to] Can't Post

that New Line may not have made that big of a profit off of Fellowship for real. Cause didn't they cover their butts with foreign distribution, too? Still, all Jackson is asking for is proof of that...

For Gondor!


BuckyUnderbelly
Lorien


Dec 10 2007, 10:15pm

Post #28 of 38 (628 views)
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I humbly disagree about the lawsuit, though. [In reply to] Can't Post

If PJ's intention is actually to force NL to open their books, all he's got to do is not accept an out-of-court settlement from NL. The court will do all the work for him. Independent court-appointed auditors will go over all of NL's books and accounting practices with a fine-toothed comb. They'll turn over every rock.

And it isn't like he'd be changing the whole industry single-handedly. But he would be establishing a beach-head. The first of the A-list talent to stand up and expose the studio's fuzzy math. It would be a pretty big deal for him to just not go along with the industry's status quo.

We'll shall see what happens.

(Speilberg would never try something like this because he's actually fully entrenched in the studio system. He's one of the founders of DreamWorks after all. So he's really on the other side of this particular fence.)


"In Hollywood the screenplay is a fire hydrant. And there's a line of dogs around the block." -- Frank Miller


BuckyUnderbelly
Lorien


Dec 10 2007, 10:17pm

Post #29 of 38 (591 views)
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My guess is .... [In reply to] Can't Post

... since they must have known the LOTR movies were going to be huge ... that they didn't actually sell off the foreign rights to the same extent they did for GC. I'd guess they kept a lot more of those profits for themselves.

But since neither I nor PJ can look at their books, I can't tell you for sure!


"In Hollywood the screenplay is a fire hydrant. And there's a line of dogs around the block." -- Frank Miller


entmaiden
Forum Admin / Moderator


Dec 10 2007, 10:21pm

Post #30 of 38 (640 views)
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New Line sold off most of the profits for the foreign distribution [In reply to] Can't Post

for FOTR. That effectively limits their downside risk, but also caps the upside potential. However, that may not have an impact on the lawsuit with Peter Jackson because Peter's contract might call for a percent of the movie's gross revenue, not the net revenue. The difference is that gross revenue is calculated before the foreign profits are distributed, while the net is calculated after.

Darkstone had a great post about the ins and outs of the contracts several months ago and demonstrated that New Line selling off the profits probably doesn't change much in the lawsuit.

All Peter is asking for in the lawsuit is an opportunity to examine the books. New Line has basically given him a number and said "Trust Us" and Peter wants more. New Line is bristling at that, saying they've paid Peter hundreds of millions and he's greedy for wanting more. Peter's response is that it's not the amount, it's the principle. He doesn't care if New Line overpaid him or underpaid him - he just wants the opportunity to look at their calculations.

Each cloak was fastened about the neck with a brooch like a green leaf veined with silver.
`Are these magic cloaks?' asked Pippin, looking at them with wonder.
`I do not know what you mean by that,' answered the leader of the Elves.


NARF since 1974.
Balin Bows


BuckyUnderbelly
Lorien


Dec 10 2007, 10:36pm

Post #31 of 38 (593 views)
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And several news reports have also noted that .... [In reply to] Can't Post

... PJ's lawsuit is also about the "vertical integration" issue. Which basically involves (and please correct me if I'm getting this wrong, Entmaiden, you clearly know this stuff better than I!) NL working in collusion with all the other companies within TW to make sweetheart deals for home video, toys, merchandise, etc., etc., etc.

This is an issue because instead of those contracts going to the higest bidders, they were given more cheaply to other TW companies. (Kind of like the whole Haliburton thing during the Iraq war.) Which means PJ's profit participation from those deals would also have been negatively affected.


"In Hollywood the screenplay is a fire hydrant. And there's a line of dogs around the block." -- Frank Miller


entmaiden
Forum Admin / Moderator


Dec 10 2007, 10:37pm

Post #32 of 38 (607 views)
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Here are some of Darkstone's posts [In reply to] Can't Post

explaining how much of the FOTR financing was put in place:

http://newboards.theonering.net/forum/gforum/perl/gforum.cgi?post=37837;#37837


http://newboards.theonering.net/forum/gforum/perl/gforum.cgi?post=37835;#37835

http://newboards.theonering.net/forum/gforum/perl/gforum.cgi?post=37820;#37820

Each cloak was fastened about the neck with a brooch like a green leaf veined with silver.
`Are these magic cloaks?' asked Pippin, looking at them with wonder.
`I do not know what you mean by that,' answered the leader of the Elves.


NARF since 1974.
Balin Bows


BuckyUnderbelly
Lorien


Dec 10 2007, 10:53pm

Post #33 of 38 (610 views)
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Thanks, Entmaiden (and Darkstone)! [In reply to] Can't Post

I hadn't realized they'd pre-sold so much of the foreign distribution. But where they certainly struck gold was on the DVDs. They triple-dipped. And all three sets were monster sellers. (And my apartment can certainly attest to how profitable the merchandising must have been for them!)

What's irritating is that we constantly hear the stories about how NL took such a huge risk in financing the trilogy ... that it was make or break for the company. When, in reality, between foreign sales, and the fact that the budgets were no doubt spread over three years ... they really weren't terribly exposed.

Plus, they HAD to realize that there was an audience for these movies. There was 50 years worth of built-in fandom just waiting for them to finish shooting.


"In Hollywood the screenplay is a fire hydrant. And there's a line of dogs around the block." -- Frank Miller


entmaiden
Forum Admin / Moderator


Dec 10 2007, 11:07pm

Post #34 of 38 (578 views)
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I'm not an expert [In reply to] Can't Post

but my education is in finance and accounting, and I've long been fascinated by the fuzzy accounting of the movie industry.

I think vertical integration is a tangential issue, and your understanding is the same as mine. I do think Peter's main issue is that New Line won't give him any details.

I agree with your comment elsewhere that Spielberg is not a person who will rock the boat. Peter seems an ideal candidate since (a) he has more than enough money already, (b) his ego and his livelihood isn't dependent on making nice with the studios, and (c) he's a Kiwi, with the usual amount of Kiwi independence to want to shake things up.

Each cloak was fastened about the neck with a brooch like a green leaf veined with silver.
`Are these magic cloaks?' asked Pippin, looking at them with wonder.
`I do not know what you mean by that,' answered the leader of the Elves.


NARF since 1974.
Balin Bows


BuckyUnderbelly
Lorien


Dec 10 2007, 11:25pm

Post #35 of 38 (613 views)
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It really is a fascinating shell game, isn't it ... [In reply to] Can't Post

... that the studios play, trying to convince profit participants that they took a loss on a movie that clearly made tremendous profits! Just so they don't have to share. (Not unlike the ongoing struggles happening right now between the WGA and AMPTP.) They'll do or say anything to keep every last cent. It's amazing. And as long as they all stand together, nobody can stop them.

Which is why I believe in my heart of hearts that PJ's lawsuit is not so much a dispute over money. I think it's intended more as a symbolic battering ram.

It's not really my field either, since I'm on the creative side of the business. But I'm fascinated by all the maneuvering and backstabbing. And I figure the more I learn about this stuff now, the better of I'll be down the road. (Or the more depressed I'll be the day I realize that it's happening to me!)


"In Hollywood the screenplay is a fire hydrant. And there's a line of dogs around the block." -- Frank Miller


Patty
Immortal


Dec 11 2007, 5:27am

Post #36 of 38 (602 views)
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Yes, thanks for linking this Entmaiden... [In reply to] Can't Post

Sounds like Darkstone will be a welcome addition to this thread too when he returns.

For Gondor!


Earl
Forum Admin / Moderator


Dec 11 2007, 7:18am

Post #37 of 38 (570 views)
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This thread is great ! [In reply to] Can't Post

I'm really enjoying all the posts out here. It's so exciting to see the many perspectives and the possible outcomes of it all - everthing suddenly seems to be happening at the same time - TGC's ill-performance at the BO, the PJ-NL lawsuit hearing (which, iirc is sometime in the first week of Januray 2008), the rumours that NL are close to reaching an agreement with PJ, the timeframe for NL's rights to The Hobbit nearing expiration, and NL's contract with TW itself close to expiring? (not too sure of that last one).

About the PJ-NL lawsuit, I found most information on news sites pretty sketchy (and more than a little hard to understand), but Kristin Thompson's blog had a neat summary of it that I found rather easy to comprehend.

What all this bodes for The Hobbit is anyone's guess. NL has been surprisingly quiet about it during the past few months, and it's obvious they want PJ to direct it - if not, they would've gone ahead with another director by now. Of course, they can probably still do that, but after their latest string of lukewarm releases, they'd be fools to do so. The Hobbit is hot property, and a PJ-directed one screams "surefire hit". Well, something's cooking over at NL for sure, and you can bet it ain't roast mutton Wink



Sunflower
Valinor

Dec 11 2007, 7:30am

Post #38 of 38 (643 views)
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The De Havilland Law [In reply to] Can't Post

Yes, thanks so much.

I have to say though that when I was talking about Spielberg before, I was not implying that he'd have any inclanation to rock the boat. Far from it. From the start, out of the American Zoetrope Generation, the Film School Brat Pack of the 70's, he was always the most conservative, both personally and artistically. It is perhaps this grounding "in the system" from the start that irnically has allowed him to be where he got to in terms of stability. Whether tr not that's how you or I would operate though is anyone's guess. His fellows Coppola and Scorcese were more ambitious in the business, and did not fare as commmercially well.

George Lucas is an interesting case, and I think this is who PJ is attempting to model himself after. Both in terms of artistic endeavor, business practices, and operational ethos. Right now, he is very evocative of the Early Lucas: Lucas in the late 70's, hot off his breaking through and for now the hottest thing in the business, with his own little empire (though it's more like an enlightened constitutional monarchy at this point) etc. He uis busy making WETA the next ILM, attempting to lead the 3D revolution or co-lead it, just as Lucas did with bluescreens etc. However, in one sense he is Lucas in reverse: Lucas had already left the Hollywood system and dropped out of the Guilds after Fox wouldn't let him run the famous Prologue Scroll in his films without opening credits. (Seriously, can you imagine a SW film with opening credits??) Lucas won that lawsuit. But 10 yrs later he decided that it was awful lonely out there in Skywalker Ranch and quietly asked to rejoin the System.

PJ is trying to take on the System the same way Lucas took on Fox. Unfortunately for PJ it's not an artistic issue here; but a massive financial one. Which of course is harder to beat,. And the biz has changed. Ironically it was Lucas who made the studios shake themselves out of their decade long malaise and realize what they had allowed to happen: the artists were getting too uppity. More to the point, they were getting the profits. They closed in on themsleves like clamshells--and this was before the multinationals got them. "Vertical interration" Yes, I undertsand that VERY well.

If he thinks that he is going to be the next Olivia De Havilland, then good luck. Olivia De Havilland, the still-living legend whose most famous of many famous roles was GWTW's Melanie (she's 91 now, bless her!) won one of the most famous and imortant cases in Hollywood hsitory that many point to as the real beginning of the end of the old Studio system. Tired of being typecast, she sued her studio to get out of a contract she felt she could leave, and won. Before this, actors were virtual slaves to their studio masters, who could and did use them as they wished. PJ may be seeking to end "vertical integration", he knows that this isn't just about getting a peek at the books. Your Halliburton analogy is dead-on.

He isn't De Havilland though....

What I am concerned with is will PJ ever beocme the later Lucas say 10 yrs from now. Even with Fran there to guide him this is debatable....and I mean in terms of the desire to play it safe....

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