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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
The Hobbit US box office predictions
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Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 9:12pm

Post #26 of 56 (396 views)
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I agree it's too early. [In reply to] Can't Post

But let's be honest, the score will not go up much if at all when all is said and done. It could also go down, who knows. It'll land around Indy 4 territory, a movie that is being considered a big letdown.

I'm paying attention to the reviews because other people are paying attention to the reviews. I wish for the film to have the best possible success. I know, it's not me getting the money or the recognition but is it that... weird to be bummed as a fan about what is going on right now? I don't think so. The articles are already written: "Hobbit disappoints". It'll be forever known as that.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Dec 8 2012, 9:18pm)


Aragorn the Elfstone
Tol Eressea


Dec 8 2012, 9:26pm

Post #27 of 56 (416 views)
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Gladiator is also in Indy 4 territory. [In reply to] Can't Post

It holds a 78% as well as 7/10 rating. Last time I checked, the film went on to win Best Picture of the year and is considered a modern classic by many. The critics were never overly enthusiastic (Ebert disliked it severely), but the film gained a fan base that heaped praise upon it.

I guarantee you that if The Hobbit succeeds with fans, no one's going to care that it got a 70-something (or wherever it lands) rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

"All men dream; but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds awake to find that it was vanity; But the dreamers of day are dangerous men. That they may act their dreams with open eyes to make it possible."
- T.E. Lawrence


(This post was edited by Aragorn the Elfstone on Dec 8 2012, 9:30pm)


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 9:37pm

Post #28 of 56 (408 views)
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Actually, Gladiator is one of my favorite movies. ;) [In reply to] Can't Post

You got a point, comparing aggregate scores can be flawed.

But the difference here is, i feel there was no air of disappointment around Gladiator, which is all around Hobbit, at least the non fan community. Hobbit won't get any major Oscars or make it into any top 10 lists of major critic circles, i'm pretty sure of that.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Dec 8 2012, 9:43pm)


Aragorn the Elfstone
Tol Eressea


Dec 8 2012, 9:45pm

Post #29 of 56 (384 views)
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I had my doubts on that score anyway. [In reply to] Can't Post

I think we all would have loved for The Hobbit to make an impression at the Oscars, like LotR. But even before any reviews surfaced, I cautioned others on this board not to get their hopes up. The Hollywood film industry likes to have a narrative to their awards seasons. In 2001-2003, it was all about the groundbreaking trilogy that was going to be rewarded for the third chapter. When it finally happened, it was like a domino effect for RotK, sweeping all those different awards.

But that "story" is done. Notice how each year, all the critics awards and such go to one particular film? It's all about building up a narrative around a film, or multiple films. Last year is was all about "The Artist" and it's silent film charm. A couple years ago, it was The Social Network sweeping all the critics awards (though the Academy eventually went with The King's Speech). As far as they're concerned, the New Zealand "invasion" Wink happened in 2003. There was never going to be a repeat of that as far as awards are concerned.

I've suspected all along that The Hobbit may have a chance at some technical awards, namely Visual Effects, but none of the top tier categories - and I'm sticking with that. PJ & Co. already proved themselves to the industry. This bonus round is for us, the fans. Smile

"All men dream; but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds awake to find that it was vanity; But the dreamers of day are dangerous men. That they may act their dreams with open eyes to make it possible."
- T.E. Lawrence


(This post was edited by Aragorn the Elfstone on Dec 8 2012, 9:48pm)


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 9:51pm

Post #30 of 56 (375 views)
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I cautioned, too. [In reply to] Can't Post


In Reply To
I think we all would have loved for The Hobbit to make an impression at the Oscars, like LotR. But even before any reviews surfaced, I cautioned others on this board not to get their hopes up.


I don't want to drag the Oscars into this little debate, i wasn't expecting Hobbit to win anything major anyway. Many great movies, especially genre movies, don't get Oscar love. I was just trying to point out that Gladiator - while having some detractors - had strong support from people who's opinion carry some weight. And as far as i'm concerned, they were right, it's an awesome movie. I'm a sucker for historical epics.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Dec 8 2012, 9:59pm)


frodolives
Lorien

Dec 8 2012, 9:57pm

Post #31 of 56 (600 views)
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Here are some more predictions from good sources [In reply to] Can't Post

It seems to be somewhere around $105-110 million. The biggest opening of all time for this weekend was I Am Legend, which opened to $77 million and finished with a domestic gross of $256 million.
http://www.hsx.com/article/


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 10:07pm

Post #32 of 56 (542 views)
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We shouldn't take I Am Legend (or Avatar for that matter) as a barometer. [In reply to] Can't Post

Both "original" concepts (well, Legend is a book but nothing terribly famous). Hobbit should easily snag December opening weekend record (well, it might turn out not to be so easy if some tracking data is to be believed), not because it's this huge juggernaut but because no big hugely anticipated movies have ever been released in December, except LOTR (TTT and ROTK) and those were wednesday releases and a decade ago.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Dec 8 2012, 10:10pm)


ForestPark
Rivendell


Dec 9 2012, 2:24am

Post #33 of 56 (324 views)
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Yes,yes... the Twilight cast is free [In reply to] Can't Post

SmileJustin Bieber as Sauron


DanielLB
Immortal


Dec 9 2012, 10:19am

Post #34 of 56 (295 views)
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It won't at all be known as that [In reply to] Can't Post

What represents the success of a film more ...

Pre-release reviews from selected critics, or, worldwide gross?

...

Want Hobbit Movie News? Hobbit Headlines of the Week!



Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 9 2012, 1:27pm

Post #35 of 56 (272 views)
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What are you trying to say? [In reply to] Can't Post

Must i name you the many movies that made a lot of money but aren't really looked upon favorably? Wink


DanielLB
Immortal


Dec 9 2012, 1:37pm

Post #36 of 56 (269 views)
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You're worried that this film will be knows as a flop, because of a handful of negative reviews [In reply to] Can't Post

My point is, it won't be known as a flop, because it will make so much money, and be loved by millions of people.

Want Hobbit Movie News? Hobbit Headlines of the Week!



Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 9 2012, 1:46pm

Post #37 of 56 (281 views)
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Not a flop in monetary terms. [In reply to] Can't Post

And flop might be too harsh a word. Disappointment is what i used. Outside the fan community, the film is already seen as a disappointment.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 9 2012, 1:56pm

Post #38 of 56 (270 views)
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Also, making a billion is nothing that noteworthy nowadays. [In reply to] Can't Post

If Hobbit manages to at least come very close to Avengers, then we can celebrate.

Reviews do affect box office. Yes, movies like Transformers made a lot of money but had they been actually good movies with critics praising them, they would have made even more. I honestly believe the one constant that comes up in reviews, the pacing problems, will affect its box office. The non fans, that don't salivate over every additional minute of Middle Earth, might not like it and see it again or recommend to friends. And we need those non fans for the really stratospheric box office results.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Dec 9 2012, 2:05pm)


DanielLB
Immortal


Dec 9 2012, 2:17pm

Post #39 of 56 (263 views)
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Only if you read reviews, and take them up. Everyone I know, who isn't a massive fan, are looking forward to it. [In reply to] Can't Post

Nobody should let a critics review get to them. If people regard it as a disappoint already then it's pretty pathetic.

Want Hobbit Movie News? Hobbit Headlines of the Week!



Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 9 2012, 2:21pm

Post #40 of 56 (267 views)
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They are looking forward to it because of the goodwill from LOTR i presume. [In reply to] Can't Post

But like i said, if long parts turn out to be boring to them (which is reflected in many reviews) they might not come back for more and recommend it to friends and family.

It reminds me of King Kong where everybody was complaining (not me) it took so long to get to the island.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Dec 9 2012, 2:27pm)


DanielLB
Immortal


Dec 9 2012, 2:27pm

Post #41 of 56 (259 views)
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Well I hope you're pleasantly surprised :-) [In reply to] Can't Post

I'm not aware of any film that has been seriously and detrimentally damaged by pre-release reviews. A film will do poorly because it is a rubbish film. It's not a rubbish film because a handful of people think so.

And as I have always said, the only thing that matters is that I like the film. I don't even care if my partner likes it! I couldn't care less how much money it makes, or how many oscars it wins.

Want Hobbit Movie News? Hobbit Headlines of the Week!



(This post was edited by DanielLB on Dec 9 2012, 2:28pm)


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 9 2012, 2:34pm

Post #42 of 56 (257 views)
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It's not about me. [In reply to] Can't Post

I've said it multiple times, i'm sure i'm gonna like it. I'm sure i'm not gonna be bored. I'm of the mindset the more Middle Earth the better. I'm concerned about its box office. I want it to beat Avengers for bragging rights. And well, it's a nice feeling, when something you like is liked by others and successful. Wink


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Dec 9 2012, 2:43pm)


DanielLB
Immortal


Dec 9 2012, 2:37pm

Post #43 of 56 (269 views)
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Ahh bragging rights! [In reply to] Can't Post

I agree with you there then. I would like it to beat x, y and z films; just so it can be rubbed in their faces!Tongue

Especially as I know people that already dislike LOTR/Tolkien.

Want Hobbit Movie News? Hobbit Headlines of the Week!



Elessar
Valinor


Dec 9 2012, 3:26pm

Post #44 of 56 (342 views)
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Deep breath [In reply to] Can't Post

Take a deep breath. I've seen you kind of freak about a few negative reviews already. Most of the reviews are positive and talk a lot about the good things while mentioning a negative here and there. As far as US BO I think it makes around 500-600 million



Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 9 2012, 4:15pm

Post #45 of 56 (285 views)
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I would say it's more than just a few negative reviews [In reply to] Can't Post

Even the positive ones are more often than not "it's pretty good but...".

You might wanna rethink that prediction of yours. It's a little high. Wink


Elessar
Valinor


Dec 9 2012, 4:24pm

Post #46 of 56 (271 views)
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When you look at all the reviews it's a few [In reply to] Can't Post

Yes, and almost ALL reviews (in order to be considered objective mention something negative). So as I said when you look at all of the reviews things are quite positive. Besides the only reviewer I'm truly concerned with is me and it should be that way with you (be concerned with you I mean).

I don't think that it's too high at all. This will make coin and be in the theater for quite a while.



Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 9 2012, 4:34pm

Post #47 of 56 (268 views)
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Not matter how you spin it, it is a far cry from the reception LOTR got. [In reply to] Can't Post

You should be concerned with what other people think, especially with a prediction that borders on unrealistic. Wink


Lacrimae Rerum
Grey Havens

Dec 9 2012, 4:38pm

Post #48 of 56 (253 views)
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I don't think advising others to "be concerned" [In reply to] Can't Post

About film reviews is awfully useful.

LR


Elessar
Valinor


Dec 9 2012, 4:45pm

Post #49 of 56 (225 views)
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No spin here [In reply to] Can't Post

I think The Hobbit as a whole is doing just fine. Tolkien, Jackson, and Middle-earth are still on a high from The Lord of Rings films so its not surprising like with most thing some try to tear it down. The words I'm hearing is this is as good a fun as those films so as I said no spin.

I think most movie goers will like it and there are opinions I care about, but #1 is me and that's who I pay for when I see a movie. I believe as a I said most movie goers will enjoy it and that's why it will do well. Critics be darned.



Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 9 2012, 4:47pm

Post #50 of 56 (265 views)
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It is. [In reply to] Can't Post

One must take that into consideration when predicting box office.

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