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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
The Hobbit US box office predictions
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kdawg
Registered User

Dec 8 2012, 8:29am

Post #1 of 56 (7179 views)
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The Hobbit US box office predictions Can't Post

Hi all! First time poster here! Just wondering what you all think will be the opening weekend total and overall gross at the US box office for The Hobbit AUJ. If the Hunger Games can pull in 152 million and Twilight/Breaking Dawn 2 can pull in 141 million during their opening weekends, I would guess that AUJ can come in somewhere around there. Not sure if it can beat TDKR's 160 million opening and most likely won't come close to Avengers 207 million.

I say opening weekend 153 million and 435 million overall in US.

What do you all think??


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 12:10pm

Post #2 of 56 (1072 views)
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Not only are reviews worse than anticipated, interest doesn't seem to be as high as well [In reply to] Can't Post

There was an article in Variety i think, tracking suggests it will open to only around $75m. Now that might be the official WB estimate and studios tend to lowball it. Still, i think $100m at best. Unsure


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 12:22pm

Post #3 of 56 (882 views)
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Ah, here's the article... [In reply to] Can't Post


Quote
That comes next weekend with Warner Bros.' "The Hobbit" tracking for a domestic opening of about $75 million.


http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118063262

Unsure


Lacrimae Rerum
Grey Havens

Dec 8 2012, 1:09pm

Post #4 of 56 (719 views)
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Rather more in line with the first of a franchise series. [In reply to] Can't Post

Interesting that I suppose I have always thought of it as a "next installment". Perhaps 10 years is enough to make that more complex.

LR


Nightwing
Bree

Dec 8 2012, 1:15pm

Post #5 of 56 (995 views)
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No, interest doesn't seem to be very high [In reply to] Can't Post

The Hobbit is a lesser Lord of the Rings, and people have already seen that one. And how many people really want to watch a bunch of short, bulky, bearded men slowly trek through the wild for hours?

This is why I think a Silmarillion film series could be very prosperous. Not only would it be structurally very different from The Hobbit and Rings (which are very similar to each other), but the scope, stakes, casualties would be far greater as well. And unlike The Hobbit, here you'd get a huge cast of beautiful, androgynous elven characters. Which in todays anime and Japan centric society is a sure path to success. Hell, give Sauron his fair appearance from The Return of the King bonus material and the fangirls would line up in droves.

Start negotiations with the Tolkien Estate, WB. Do it now. Give them everything.


DanielLB
Immortal


Dec 8 2012, 1:22pm

Post #6 of 56 (535 views)
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I do! [In reply to] Can't Post


Quote
The Hobbit is a lesser Lord of the Rings, and people have already seen that one. And how many people really want to watch a bunch of short, bulky, bearded men slowly trek through the wild for hours?


I wasn't on the forum during the FOTR days, but how much interest was there with that? The first film in a big franchise is always going to have the least amount of interest. Just how TABA will be the most successful.

Want Hobbit Movie News? Hobbit Headlines of the Week!



Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 2:23pm

Post #7 of 56 (502 views)
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But Hobbit is not really the first in a franchise. [In reply to] Can't Post

It's essentially the prequel of LOTR, which was a huge success and is considered pretty much a classic. I honestly expected more hype for this. I guess WB really succeeded in screwing up marketing...

Man, the last 24 hours were tough for me, i expected reviews in the 80s and hype leading up to a pretty big opening. Where's the goodwill from LOTR? ROTK opened to frigging $34 million on a frigging wednesday, 9 years ago, without 3D ticket prices, goddammit. That's almost half of the projected opening weekend of Hobbit. Never thought it would turn out like this.


(This post was edited by Estel78 on Dec 8 2012, 2:33pm)


frodolives
Lorien

Dec 8 2012, 2:30pm

Post #8 of 56 (642 views)
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The 'accepted' number seems to be $137 million [In reply to] Can't Post

I've seen this number quoted several times: http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/12/05/film-thehobbit-reviews-idINDEE8B400820121205


Carne
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 2:30pm

Post #9 of 56 (710 views)
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The worldwide box office is what counts [In reply to] Can't Post

And this movie is going to make hundreds of millions of dollars.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 2:36pm

Post #10 of 56 (652 views)
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I'm curious where they got that number from... [In reply to] Can't Post

And 3 hours and 9 minutes? Isn't the running time about 2 hours and 45 minutes?


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 2:51pm

Post #11 of 56 (604 views)
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Many movies make hundreds of millions. [In reply to] Can't Post

There's no question it's gonna make a lot of money for WB.


Lacrimae Rerum
Grey Havens

Dec 8 2012, 2:53pm

Post #12 of 56 (473 views)
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I don't think there is anyone here [In reply to] Can't Post

Who isn't aware of how devastated you are. But we are all praying that you somehow make it through the trauma.

LR


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 2:59pm

Post #13 of 56 (442 views)
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Oh, i'll make it through but not without some bruises. [In reply to] Can't Post

Thanks for all your prayers. Wink


LordotRings93
Rohan


Dec 8 2012, 3:29pm

Post #14 of 56 (625 views)
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Seems pretty hyped to me [In reply to] Can't Post

I'm seeing much more Hobbit TV spots, and more merchandise has popped up at my Walmart (none of the Bridge Direct toys yet...Unsure). ROTK only opened to 75 million, and went on to gross a billion worldwide. Even if The Hobbit doesn't cross the 100 million opening weekend mark, doesn't mean it's a failure. Over the Christmas holiday I feel a lot of people will go and see it. Hell, I didn't see RotK till a week after its release. Not everyone wants to go to the chaos of opening days and whatnot, but I'm going to!

Lover of Medieval Fantasy
"I know what I must do. It's just... I'm afraid to do it."


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 3:52pm

Post #15 of 56 (429 views)
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Well, ROTK made about $50m before the weekend even begun. [In reply to] Can't Post

Comparing a wednesday opener to a friday opener is apples and oranges. Not topping $100m on opening weekend is not necessarily a failure but a disappointment none the less, considering ROTK would have made about that much had it opened on a friday - again, without 9 years worth of inflation and 3d ticket prices.

But it's pretty pointless to go "if this if that". We'll see in a few days how big the hype is...


DanielLB
Immortal


Dec 8 2012, 4:13pm

Post #16 of 56 (420 views)
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LOTR was a whole 10 years ago [In reply to] Can't Post

It might be following this critically acclaimed film series, but that was 10 years ago! It's still a completely new franchise.

Plus, there's a whole population that have never seen LOTR. There wouldn't be any hype from the new youngsters.

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DanielLB
Immortal


Dec 8 2012, 4:14pm

Post #17 of 56 (443 views)
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Very different level of advertising between countries [In reply to] Can't Post

Advertising in the UK kicked in about 1/2 week/s ago. Even then, it's the occasional TV spot. ROTK seemed to be everywhere 9 years ago.

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kdawg
Registered User

Dec 8 2012, 6:07pm

Post #18 of 56 (917 views)
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I see this movie as [In reply to] Can't Post

I see this movie as one of the "Big 3" movie releases of the year (the other two being TDKR and Avengers). With Hunger Games and Breaking Dawn pt.2, yes they had/have huge grosses but they both appeal mostly to a single demographic, females. With the 3D, IMAX and HFR ticket prices and releasing during the Holidays (and when kids are out of school or will be out soon until after sometime in January, also many parents take off work/vacation this time of year as well), I just don't see this grossing anything less than at least 110-120 million minimum opening weekend. Obviously this movie isn't appealing to most small children (especially with the run time) but will certainly attract older kids, teens, adults and families. If this movie isn't at least the #3 top grossing movie here in the US for 2012, I will be shocked. I am still sticking with about 150 million opening weekend. This movie will have "legs" until sometime mid-January.


sauget.diblosio
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 6:28pm

Post #19 of 56 (394 views)
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I agree with kdawg, [In reply to] Can't Post

I think The Hobbit will easily make the top 5 of 2012, and possibly the top 3. I don't think it will top The Avengers (which was just an anomaly that came out of nowhere (for me, anyway-- i don't pay much attention to comic book movies)), but i think it has a chance, though maybe a slim one, to top The Dark Knight Rises. So many different demographics love these movies, i really don't see so-so reviews affecting it's box office performance that much, especially since a lot of the so-so reviews have a lot of great things to say about the movie. There's also the fact that the LotR/Hobbit fans are even more into seeing them multiple times than the Avenger/Batman fans are.

So i think that opening weekend should end up somewhere in the neighborhood of 135-145 mil., but i'm hoping it tops 150.


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 6:45pm

Post #20 of 56 (340 views)
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Star Wars or Indiana Jones was even longer ago. [In reply to] Can't Post

Look how they did.


DanielLB
Immortal


Dec 8 2012, 6:57pm

Post #21 of 56 (339 views)
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Are you referring to ... [In reply to] Can't Post

That awful prequel trilogy, and awful sequel film ... That are generally unliked by fans of both franchises (and neither of which did very well).

I really do think The Hobbit is not comparable to either.

Want Hobbit Movie News? Hobbit Headlines of the Week!



(This post was edited by DanielLB on Dec 8 2012, 6:57pm)


Estel78
Tol Eressea

Dec 8 2012, 7:01pm

Post #22 of 56 (335 views)
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Both did extremely well. [In reply to] Can't Post

Especially Phantom Menace was huge at the box office. And so far, Indiana Jones 4 has better reviews than Hobbit.


DanielLB
Immortal


Dec 8 2012, 7:03pm

Post #23 of 56 (341 views)
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Well it would have a better rating ... For obvious reasons ... / [In reply to] Can't Post

 

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MasterOrc
Rivendell

Dec 8 2012, 8:41pm

Post #24 of 56 (284 views)
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I'll go see the movie............Lets not forget the kids interest! [In reply to] Can't Post

..five times to help the cause! I think where we could be missing here is the number of younger children that have read The Hobbit or finally became old enough to watch the LOTR with mom or dad. My 3rd and 5th grader are having me pick them up from school on Friday with a couple of there buddies so we can all watch the film.

I'll be at the 12 midnight showing much earlier on Friday to get my private watch...Evil


Aragorn the Elfstone
Grey Havens


Dec 8 2012, 8:55pm

Post #25 of 56 (304 views)
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Fan Reaction [In reply to] Can't Post

The fact of the matter is - the Star Wars prequels and fourth Indiana Jones are looked on poorly because the fan base was let down. Indiana Jones may have a 78% critics rating on RT - but look at the audience rating. It's a measly 59%.

If that film had thrilled it's target audience, it would be looked on with a more positive light today. Same thing with the Star Wars prequels. By all accounts, The Hobbit is scoring with Tolkien fans. I've yet to hear a fan review that was anything other than glowing.

...and as for the reviews of the 4th Indiana Jones vs. The Hobbit - the latter only has about 20 reviews posted on Rotten Tomatoes. That's hardly a fair comparison. But if we're going to compare at this stage, it should be noted that The Hobbit's average rating currently sits at 7.0/10 compared to Indiana Jones' 6.9/10 rating.

I have to be honest, though. I think this whole thing is ridiculous. You shouldn't get so wound up over what other people think. My favorite film of the year (so far) is the Joe Wright adaptation of Anna Karenina - and that has a 61% on RT (worse - a rotten 51% with the Top Critics). Do I care? No. I think it's the finest film released in 2012 (having not yet seen The Hobbit, of course).

December 14 is right around the corner. Stop paying so much attention to the critics and just go see the movie next week.

"All men dream; but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds awake to find that it was vanity; But the dreamers of day are dangerous men. That they may act their dreams with open eyes to make it possible."
- T.E. Lawrence


(This post was edited by Aragorn the Elfstone on Dec 8 2012, 9:03pm)

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