'Alas!' said Aragorn. 'Thus passes the heir of Denethor, Lord of the Tower of Guard! This is a bitter end. Now the Company is all in ruin. It is I that have failed. Vain was Gandalf’s trust in me. What shall I do now? Boromir has laid it on me to go to Minas Tirith, and my heart desires it; but where are the Ring and the Bearer? How shall I find them and save the Quest from disaster?' He knelt for a while, bent with weeping, still clasping Boromir’s hand. So it was that Legolas and Gimli found him.

Departure of Boromir

Then the prophecies of the old songs have turned out to be true, after a fashion!” said Bilbo.

'Of course!' said Gandalf. 'And why should not they prove true? Surely you don’t disbelieve the prophecies, because you had a hand in bringing them about yourself? You don’t really suppose, do you, that all your adventures and escapes were managed by mere luck, just for your sole benefit? You are a very fine person, Mr. Baggins, and I am very fond of you; but you are only quite a little fellow in a wide world after all!'

'Thank goodness!' said Bilbo laughing, and handed him the tobacco-jar.
TH, The Last Stage

As the three boats head down the Anduin, a serious malaise is evident in the Fellowship. Despite the fact that they can see a serious need for speed, they’re all happy to just drift along at the rivers pace. This isn’t supposed to be some pleasant excursion in the outdoors, and Aragorn’s dilly dallying over the coming choice is almost painful to read, his excuse-making rather evident…

The Fellowship is drifting though, some of them anyway, daydreaming the voyage away. Of course, this isn’t a military expedition but you would still expect them to have a longer attention span than this. Boromir is showing very obvious outward signs of paranoia and nervousness now – “…muttering to himself, sometimes biting his nails, as if some restlessness or doubt consumed him” – but aside from making Merry and Pippin a bit uncomfortable, no one deems it attention worthy. Aragorn especially is going to rue this lack of notice later and it is unforgivable in this context. The signs have been there since we were first introduced to Boromir in “The Council of Elrond”, and he has very gradually transformed into a different person, we’re simply reaching the climax of his not-so-secret desire.…

Aragorn hasn’t been great at the whole leadership thing so far, and it nearly results in catastrophe in this chapter. His knowledge of local geography fails completely, as the three boats nearly sail head first into a treacherous course of rapids, a move that the reader can well imagine to be near suicidal. I can only surmise that Tolkien, in portraying Aragorn in the leadership role as bumbling, indecisive and blind in a lot of respects, is pulling him down in order to build him up to an even greater height in the coming Books. Book Three will see him improve all the way up to his own fateful moments in Book Five. Right now, the impression you get is of a man who is in way over his head, not unfit for command, but simply unready. “Would that Gandalf were here!” seems to be ever-present in his mind, along with the two options open to him: follow the “summons” to Minis Tirith, or go with Frodo to Mordor, a choice now symbolised by either bank of the very river they sail upon.

The Lord Of The Rings, Chapter By Chapter: The Great River

When it comes right down to the decision, Aragorn definitively passes the buck to Frodo, washing his hands of all responsibility: “I fear that the burden is laid upon you. You are the Bearer appointed by the Council…Such is your fate.”. The future King might never have a worse moment as the designated chivalrous character. He seems to excuse it by claiming that Gandalf didn’t have a plan either, but that’s weak. Frodo appears strained, Aragorn’s words only adding to his pain. I’m not sure why this decision is being placed on Frodo’s shoulders alone, it’s not like he has the geopolitical experience to recognise the challenges. He doesn’t even know how difficult it is to get into Mordor, as the first few chapters of Book Four will show. He pulls his own Aragorn act, choosing to vanish into the woods for a while rather than make the choice, a choice he has already really made. Aragorn, naturally, lets him go, probably delighted that he gets to put the decision off for another few hours. I think it is at this point that the weaknesses of the Aragorn character start to grate, but thankfully they’re already at their zenith.

The Lord Of The Rings, Chapter By Chapter: The Breaking Of The Fellowship

… Frodo is running away again, but it is in a far less panicky way then what happened in “The Old Forest”. There, it was terror and stress combining to produce an almost childish rejection of logical thinking. Here, it’s stress again, and a measure of denial, but Frodo isn’t panicking. He’s grown that much. As stated, Frodo has actually already made his decision at this point, but I think that we’ve all been in a similar situation – not anywhere near as important of course, but similar – where we have made a decision but still agonise, dither, hum and haw about its implementation. Frodo is a reluctant character and always has been. He was reluctant to see Bilbo leave and to become “the” Baggins of Bag End, he was reluctant to leave the Shire, to leave Bombadil’s home, Rivendell, Lorien. It’s just a continuation of that.

This is not Frodo’s most momentous choice, which was back in “The Council Of Elrond” when he took the Ring in the first place. But it is another pivotal moment, another point of no return. I suppose one can forgive Frodo for his little retreat here. Every bad decision he has made so far, from leaving the Shire so late, blundering through the Old Forest, the drunken antics of the Prancing Pony, must be going through his mind all at once. These are all intangible problems of course, and do not matter in the long run. A much more physical obstacle is about to appear.

We’ve come to the defining moment of this opening part of the The Lord of the Rings, and it takes the unique form of a somewhat crazed Boromir, which is original enough when you think about it. It’s a gutsy call from the author, making this the climax of The Fellowship of the Ring, rather than some kind of fight scene. A lesser author would have put Boromir and Aragorn up against each other in some fashion I think, but what Tolkien produces is far more memorable.

The Lord Of The Rings, Chapter By Chapter: The Breaking Of The Fellowship

Aragorn makes his decision, choosing to go after Merry and Pippin: “And now may I make a right choice, and change the evil fate of this unhappy day”. Foresight says it’s the right one, but you could argue that it isn’t at the time. Merry and Pippin are nice guys, but the Ring-bearer is the Ring-bearer. His is the most important part of the quest, and Aragorn decides to cut him loose here, sending him against the might of Mordor with just his gardener for company. Considering that Aragorn must be aware of the difficulties in just gaining access to Mordor, it’s a pivotal choice. In this decision, Aragorn decides that Frodo has it in him to get to Mordor, make it past the defences, and get to Mt Doom without his assistance. Much is left to fate in this moment, to the machinations of a higher power. But there is the example of Boromir fresh in the mind of Aragorn I suppose. Most crucially, things are going to go a lot better for Aragorn when he makes his own decisions without feeling the pressure of having to live up to Gandalf’s leadership.

The Lord Of The Rings, Chapter By Chapter: The Departure Of Boromir

Aragorn is lofty and great and we’d like to think he has the “fibre” to resist the working of Sauron’ temptation machine, but every other wise advisor has refused in full knowledge that it is irresistible, and I think Aragorn knows he’s not really immune. He understands why this is Frodo’s quest, and I think he has a good working awareness (for supporting evidence, his deathbed speech to Arwen in the appendices) of the hand of providence operating in his world.

[Aragorn's] own plan, while Gandalf remained with them, had been to go with Boromir, and with his sword help to deliver Gondor. For he believed that the message of the dreams was a summons, and that the hour had come at last when the heir of Elendil should come forth and strive with Sauron for the mastery. But in Moria the burden of Gandalf had been laid on him; and he knew that he could not now forsake the Ring, if Frodo refused in the end to go with Boromir. And yet what help could he or any of the Company give to Frodo, save to walk blindly with him into the darkness?

At length he spoke again, softly, as if he was debating with himself. 'If you wish only to destroy the Ring,' he said, 'then there is little use in war and weapons; and the Men of Minas Tirith cannot help. But if you wish to destroy the armed might of the Dark Lord, then it is folly to go without force into his domain; and folly to throw away.' He paused suddenly, as if he had become aware that he was speaking his thoughts aloud. 'It would be folly to throw lives away, I mean,' he ended. 'It is a choice between defending a strong place and walking openly into the arms of death. At least, that is how I see it.'

Frodo caught something new and strange in Boromir’s glance, and he looked hard at him. Plainly Boromir’s thought was different from his final words. It would be folly to throw away: what? The Ring of Power? He had said something like this at the Council, but then he had accepted the correction of Elrond. Frodo looked at Aragorn, but he seemed deep in his own thought and made no sign that he had heeded Boromir’s words. And so their debate ended.

'Nothing that we have endured of late has seemed so grevious as the treason of Isengard... Yet a treacherous weapon is ever a danger to the hand. Saruman also had a mind to capture the Ring, for himself, or at least to snare some hobbits for his evil purposes. So between them our enemies have contrived only to bring Merry and Pippin with marvellous speed, and in the nick of time, to Fangorn, where otherwise they would never have come at all!

'Also they have filled themselves with new doubts that disturb their plans. No tidings of the battle will come to Mordor, thanks to the horsemen of Rohan; but the Dark Lord knows that two hobbits were taken in the Emyn Muil and borne away towards Isengard against the will of his own servants. He now has Isengard to fear as well as Minas Tirith. If Minas Tirith falls, it will go ill with Saruman.

And on the possible Temptations of Aragorn, I noticed something re-reading a passage from the Fellowship's conclusionless discussion on their last night in Lorien:

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Unless indeed he is already falling. But I don’t think the professor would have been entertaining that, honestly. He wants his king pure, even if fallible.

Which makes it a little funny that in a way, Frodo is obliged to retain the services of a fellow I had never previously thought of as Aragorn’s opposite number, on a certain axis: the greatest evil wilderness guide in this world.

I think Aragorn wouldn't have been able to find a way through the Dead Marshes. I think a way through wouldn't even have existed for someone so much heavier than a hobbit. Aragorn would have needed to take the way around the marshes, and the plot would have taken a different turn.

I have no idea how Aragorn would have imagined to sneak into Mordor. It later on turns out that even Gollum's comings and goings had been noted.

I can't imagine that Aragorn would have led Frodo to the Black Gate at all, so the Dead Marshes would not have been an issue. It's entirely possible that Aragorn was aware of a secret pass into Mordor that even Sauron was unaware of. Such a route might have brought them to the region of Nurn, south of the plain of Gorgortoth.

[Aragorn (as Thoringil)] sent a message of farewell to Ecthelion, saying: ‘‘Other tasks now call me, lord, and much time and many perils must pass, ere I come again to Gondor, if that be my fate.’’ Though none could guess what those tasks might be, nor what summons he had received, it was known whither he went. For he took boat and crossed over Anduin, and there he said farewell to his companions and went on alone; and when he was last seen his face was towards the Mountains of Shadow.
- The Lord of the Rings, Appendix A

It came to pass that when Aragorn was nine and forty years of age he returned from perils on the dark confines of Mordor....
- The Lord of the Rings, Appendix A

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In the year 2980 Aragorn spent a significant amount of time investigating the borders of Mordor before he was reunited with Arwen in Lothlórien. This is purely speculative, but if anyone knew of a secret passage into Mordor other than Cirith Ungol then it would have been him. On the other hand, perhaps Aragorn would have even risked dealing with Shelob.

I tend to think that Aragorn couldn't find a secret passage that even Sauron didn't know about because Sauron knew about all the marginally plausible routes already.

But I'm also tempted to think there would be passes that were too small to be used by an army, obscure, difficult to traverse, and far away from Barad-dur, so they would be more lightly guarded than Cirith Ungol was. If Aragorn really took the time to spy out much/all of Mordor's mountains and potential passes, he might have counted on a sort of "hillbilly" post, where there are 4 guards, who are drunk most of the time, and who never pay attention past midnight (just making that up on the fly as an example, not for debate, so it might have been possible to sneak by rather than fight through. Just speculating.

The man stared after the hobbits for a moment, and then he went back to his house. As soon as his back was turned, a dark figure climbed quickly in over the gate and melted into the shadows of the village street.