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The odds were greater than 50% but I don't know how much greater

squire
Half-elven


Apr 2 2014, 8:56pm


Views: 738
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The odds were greater than 50% but I don't know how much greater [In reply to] Can't Post

I'm not sure if I'm doing this correctly, but here goes.

According to this chart from the UK Office of Health Economics, when Tolkien was 65 years old in 1957 his life expectancy was 13 more years. That is, men born in the UK in 1892 would expect to die, on the average, in 1970: half would have died before that date, and half would have yet to die. Obviously as each year passes the odds of dying increase; what I don't know is how that curve goes up, which would indicate the "odds" of Tolkien dying in 1973. It would seem, at the least, that the probability would be significantly above 50%, perhaps as much as 60%?

Anyway, the coincidence between the digits of the inverse number of his death year and the counts of the various Rings of Power is certainly a fun, if meaningless, fact!



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Subject User Time
How did I never notice this before? 1973 Aunt Dora Baggins Send a private message to Aunt Dora Baggins Mar 30 2014, 7:18pm
    That ain't no coincidence, I tell you that! ;) // BlackFox Send a private message to BlackFox Mar 30 2014, 7:21pm
    Oooh! Meneldor Send a private message to Meneldor Mar 30 2014, 7:25pm
        Count me in! // BlackFox Send a private message to BlackFox Mar 30 2014, 7:26pm
            Me too!// Eruvandi Send a private message to Eruvandi Mar 30 2014, 9:04pm
    That is chilling./ Patty Send a private message to Patty Mar 30 2014, 8:57pm
        That is creepy DaughterofLaketown Send a private message to DaughterofLaketown Mar 30 2014, 9:02pm
    Wow...that is just too...weird! // dernwyn Send a private message to dernwyn Mar 30 2014, 11:24pm
    Whoa... One Ringer Send a private message to One Ringer Mar 31 2014, 12:56pm
    So, Tolkien scholars.... Lily Fairbairn Send a private message to Lily Fairbairn Mar 31 2014, 2:27pm
        My goose has bumps too ! Bracegirdle Send a private message to Bracegirdle Mar 31 2014, 6:24pm
    eek phij2 Send a private message to phij2 Mar 31 2014, 7:17pm
    Major goosebumps! RangerLady23 Send a private message to RangerLady23 Mar 31 2014, 8:54pm
        He was a genius Gunslinger24 Send a private message to Gunslinger24 Mar 31 2014, 10:05pm
    Weird! nandorin elf Send a private message to nandorin elf Mar 31 2014, 11:19pm
    *jaw drops* whoa.... grammaboodawg Send a private message to grammaboodawg Mar 31 2014, 11:55pm
    Wow! Truth really is stranger than fiction Loresilme Send a private message to Loresilme Apr 1 2014, 12:26pm
    That is both spooky and fascinating! // Ziggy Stardust Send a private message to Ziggy Stardust Apr 2 2014, 12:51am
    What are the mathematical chances of his death occurring in that year? Patty Send a private message to Patty Apr 2 2014, 3:45am
        I think it would take an actuary to answer that question. Aunt Dora Baggins Send a private message to Aunt Dora Baggins Apr 2 2014, 4:39pm
            Really? Not being at all good at math I would have said Patty Send a private message to Patty Apr 2 2014, 5:31pm
            I think an actuary would be just as close as you entmaiden Send a private message to entmaiden Apr 2 2014, 10:28pm
        The odds were greater than 50% but I don't know how much greater squire Send a private message to squire Apr 2 2014, 8:56pm
            I think the question is ambiguous. Aunt Dora Baggins Send a private message to Aunt Dora Baggins Apr 2 2014, 10:02pm
        Astronomical Darkstone Send a private message to Darkstone Apr 2 2014, 8:59pm
            That seems high squire Send a private message to squire Apr 2 2014, 10:19pm
                "If you survive your first day, I'll promote you." Darkstone Send a private message to Darkstone Apr 3 2014, 2:18pm

 
 
 

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