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The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Lord of the Rings:
I'm afraid I have to disagree

Kristin Thompson
Rohan


Aug 7 2012, 3:46pm


Views: 375
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I'm afraid I have to disagree [In reply to] Can't Post

I don't think the future of the cinema rests on whether The Hobbit succeeds. The future of high frame rates rests on it to some extent, though if Cameron carries through with shooting the Avatar sequels at 60fps, that could make the technology a success even if The Hobbit fails. It's quite interesting that the film will be available in six different formats, though I'm sure in most towns there will only be one or two available. But people will be "voting" on 48fps and 3D by buying tickets. For most 3D films this year and last, the proportion of tickets sold for 3D screenings has continued to dwindle. That's especially true for children's and family films, and The Hobbit falls into the latter category. I don't know if the theaters plan to charge extra for 48fps 2D screenings. I'd bet not many people would choose that option if so.

I should say that there is virtually no chance that The Hobbit will fail. If Warner Bros. didn't have absolute confidence in it, they would not have OKed a third film before the first one is released. I personally think that with the huge publicity the film has gotten and will continue to get, plus the quality we've seen in the trailer and preview footage, there's no reason it should fail. (Did anyone who saw the trailers for John Carter really think it would succeed?)

But even with no guarantee that The Hobbit will be a success, Hollywood studios are behaving as usual. Universal is planning sequels to Snow White and the Huntsman, Ted, and the recent American Pie reboot. Fox plans a Prometheus sequel. A sequel to The Amazing Spider-Man is due from Sony in May, 2014. Sony also plans another Men in Black film. Disney has five Marvel-comics-based superhero films in the pipelines. There is current consideration of a Magic Mike sequel. No Brave sequel has been announced, but the sequel to Monsters, Inc. comes out next summer.

If 48fps proves very popular, some of these films may be done using that technology. But Hollywood is not poised, holding its collective breath to see if The Hobbit succeeds before plunging ahead. They can't. It takes years to make the big, effects-heavy films, and they've got films in the pipeline now that will be coming out when the third Hobbit film does.

The real challenge is not for the production companies but, as you suggest from your own local experience in New Zealand, for the theaters. There's no question that a significant number of theaters have gone out of business as a result of not being able to switch over to digital projection, and more will do so as distributors finally stop making 35mm prints available altogether. If small theaters pay to upgrade to 48fps and 3D and then don't do good business with The Hobbit, some of them may well have to give up. That, however, won't have much impact on the production side, since Hollywood studios for the most part don't own theaters.

Subject User Time
Researching THE FRODO FRANCHISE: Part 1, Off to Wellington without a Handkerchief News from Bree Send a private message to News from Bree Jul 26 2012, 1:15pm
    Very interesting! Silverlode Send a private message to Silverlode Jul 26 2012, 7:24pm
    work, work, work pasi Send a private message to pasi Jul 26 2012, 8:03pm
        Thanks, Pasi! Kristin Thompson Send a private message to Kristin Thompson Jul 27 2012, 12:03am
    Agree with previous post, nice distraction from Hobbit events, and jschomburg Send a private message to jschomburg Jul 26 2012, 8:52pm
    Thank you Kristin SirDennisC Send a private message to SirDennisC Jul 26 2012, 10:17pm
    A very interesting beginning Shelob'sAppetite Send a private message to Shelob'sAppetite Jul 27 2012, 12:44am
    Barrie W. Osborne pasi Send a private message to pasi Jul 27 2012, 11:06am
        Absolutely true about Barrie Kristin Thompson Send a private message to Kristin Thompson Jul 27 2012, 1:55pm
        I think the Tolkien Estate geordie Send a private message to geordie Jul 29 2012, 3:50pm
            I completely agree with you, geordie Kristin Thompson Send a private message to Kristin Thompson Jul 29 2012, 4:52pm
                yes - geordie Send a private message to geordie Jul 31 2012, 6:16am
                    When we speak of money Kristin Thompson Send a private message to Kristin Thompson Jul 31 2012, 2:05pm
                IMO Shelob'sAppetite Send a private message to Shelob'sAppetite Jul 31 2012, 7:06am
                Born of Hope Lurker in the Dark Send a private message to Lurker in the Dark Aug 5 2012, 4:43am
                    Born of Hope Lurker in the Dark Send a private message to Lurker in the Dark Aug 5 2012, 4:54am
                    Tolkien fanfilms and rights Kristin Thompson Send a private message to Kristin Thompson Aug 5 2012, 2:52pm
                    As Kristen says geordie Send a private message to geordie Aug 6 2012, 12:30pm
                        Messed with? Lurker in the Dark Send a private message to Lurker in the Dark Aug 7 2012, 5:24am
                            Yes, that's the sort of stuff I mean - geordie Send a private message to geordie Aug 7 2012, 5:26pm
                                Sick burn! SirDennisC Send a private message to SirDennisC Aug 8 2012, 2:24am
                                    Thanks, SirDennisC! Kristin Thompson Send a private message to Kristin Thompson Aug 9 2012, 1:18am
                                        ... and thank you for the book suggestion! // SirDennisC Send a private message to SirDennisC Aug 9 2012, 8:05am
                                    Um.. geordie Send a private message to geordie Aug 9 2012, 5:35pm
    Awesome! zarabia Send a private message to zarabia Jul 29 2012, 7:23am
        It wasn't exactly in every bookshop Kristin Thompson Send a private message to Kristin Thompson Jul 29 2012, 2:40pm
            I _really_ need to get a copy of this book - geordie Send a private message to geordie Jul 29 2012, 3:07pm
                You definitely do need a copy, geordie :) Kristin Thompson Send a private message to Kristin Thompson Jul 29 2012, 3:48pm
                    Hmm.. geordie Send a private message to geordie Jul 29 2012, 4:20pm
    More please Lurker in the Dark Send a private message to Lurker in the Dark Aug 5 2012, 4:34am
        Believe me, Kristin Thompson Send a private message to Kristin Thompson Aug 5 2012, 3:35pm
            A most important book Lurker in the Dark Send a private message to Lurker in the Dark Aug 7 2012, 5:57am
                I'm afraid I have to disagree Kristin Thompson Send a private message to Kristin Thompson Aug 7 2012, 3:46pm

 
 
 

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