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How did I never notice this before? 1973



Aunt Dora Baggins
Immortal


Mar 30 2014, 7:18pm


Views: 1562
How did I never notice this before? 1973

I remember vividly the day Tolkien died, so how did I never notice this? My daughter saw this on tumblr and sent it to me:


Tolkien died in 1973. Reverse it and you get 3791.
Three rings for the elven kings under the sky, seven for the dwarf-lords in their halls of stone, nine for mortal men doomed to die, and one for the dark lord on his dark throne.


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"For DORA BAGGINS in memory of a LONG correspondence, with love from Bilbo; on a large wastebasket. Dora was Drogo's sister, and the eldest surviving female relative of Bilbo and Frodo; she was ninety-nine, and had written reams of good advice for more than half a century."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"A Chance Meeting at Rivendell" and other stories

leleni at hotmail dot com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



BlackFox
Half-elven


Mar 30 2014, 7:21pm


Views: 912
That ain't no coincidence, I tell you that! ;) //

 


"Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake." - Henry David Thoreau


Meneldor
Valinor


Mar 30 2014, 7:25pm


Views: 924
Oooh!

Anybody else get goosebumps?


They that go down to the sea in ships, that do business in great waters; These see the works of the Lord, and His wonders in the deep.


BlackFox
Half-elven


Mar 30 2014, 7:26pm


Views: 901
Count me in! //

 


"Our truest life is when we are in dreams awake." - Henry David Thoreau


Patty
Immortal


Mar 30 2014, 8:57pm


Views: 867
That is chilling./

 

Permanent address: Into the West






DaughterofLaketown
Gondor


Mar 30 2014, 9:02pm


Views: 877
That is creepy

To think. It's like he knew?


Eruvandi
Tol Eressea


Mar 30 2014, 9:04pm


Views: 858
Me too!//

 

"So I will call upon Your name
And keep my eyes above the waves
When oceans rise
My soul will rest in Your embrace
For I am Yours and You are mine"
--Hillsong United


dernwyn
Forum Admin / Moderator


Mar 30 2014, 11:24pm


Views: 853
Wow...that is just too...weird! //

 


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"I desired dragons with a profound desire"






One Ringer
Tol Eressea


Mar 31 2014, 12:56pm


Views: 841
Whoa...

That just woke me up. Tongue *sips more coffee*

"You do not let your eyes see nor your ears hear, and that which is outside your daily life is not of account to you. Ah, it is the fault of our science that it wants to explain all; and if it explain not, then it says there is nothing to explain."


Lily Fairbairn
Half-elven


Mar 31 2014, 2:27pm


Views: 856
So, Tolkien scholars....

This intriguing fact leads me to ask those of you who are more deeply steeped in HoME than I am---did Tolkien always use three, seven, and nine rings? Did he ever consider using, say, three, five, and seven, which are all prime numbers? Or did he seem to know from the beginning that those were the "right" numbers, and if so, was there some significance to each number that I'm missing?

Thanks!




Bracegirdle
Valinor


Mar 31 2014, 6:24pm


Views: 827
My goose has bumps too !

Tolkien most certainly liked prime numbers - 3,7,9,1. (The Rings.)

The proof lies in the fact that he never mentions the Fourth Elven Ring, Kemenya - The Ring of Earth, set with a single green stone.

But he mentions only three: Vilya, The Ring of Air set with a single blue stone; Nenya, The Ring of Water set with a single white stone; and Narya, The Ring of Fire set with a single red stone.

"Four Rings for the Elven-kings.." just doesn't have the right ring Crazy

"I sang of leaves, of leaves of gold
and leaves of gold there grew.
Of wind I sang, a wind there came,
and in the branches blew."

I, Narvi, didn't make this up, but I made some other real neat stuff.

(This post was edited by Bracegirdle on Mar 31 2014, 6:25pm)


phij2
Rivendell

Mar 31 2014, 7:17pm


Views: 810
eek

i...
have...
the...
creeps...


RangerLady23
Lorien

Mar 31 2014, 8:54pm


Views: 815
Major goosebumps!

I tell you, there was something going on with Tolkien in his writing of Middle-earth. He knew stuff that we may never understand. Creepy, but in a good way.
*shivers* Ooh. I just got chills as I write this!


Gunslinger24
The Shire


Mar 31 2014, 10:05pm


Views: 801
He was a genius

And had an amazing imagination! Definetly would have loved to just give him a good handshake and say: thank you, sir.

I created the sound of madness, wrote the book on pain.


nandorin elf
Bree


Mar 31 2014, 11:19pm


Views: 791
Weird!

Never noticed that before. That's just...weird...*shivers*


grammaboodawg
Immortal


Mar 31 2014, 11:55pm


Views: 791
*jaw drops* whoa....

I just got MASSIVE chills.

Wow... It's going to take a little while to get my head around this one.

Amazing...

Thank you!

*whispers* It's also the year my younger daughter was born.



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sample

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I'm SO HAPPY these new films take me back to that magical world!!



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Loresilme
Valinor


Apr 1 2014, 12:26pm


Views: 772
Wow! Truth really is stranger than fiction

And this truth is very, very strange indeed. Wow. Even my goosebumps have goosebumps.


Ziggy Stardust
Gondor


Apr 2 2014, 12:51am


Views: 751
That is both spooky and fascinating! //

 


Patty
Immortal


Apr 2 2014, 3:45am


Views: 767
What are the mathematical chances of his death occurring in that year?

Have a go that, all of you love math.

Permanent address: Into the West






Aunt Dora Baggins
Immortal


Apr 2 2014, 4:39pm


Views: 748
I think it would take an actuary to answer that question.

But roughly, given his age, I would guess about 10%


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"For DORA BAGGINS in memory of a LONG correspondence, with love from Bilbo; on a large wastebasket. Dora was Drogo's sister, and the eldest surviving female relative of Bilbo and Frodo; she was ninety-nine, and had written reams of good advice for more than half a century."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"A Chance Meeting at Rivendell" and other stories

leleni at hotmail dot com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



Patty
Immortal


Apr 2 2014, 5:31pm


Views: 741
Really? Not being at all good at math I would have said

The odds were worse than that. With each number doesn't the possibility, probability go up exponentially that that wouldn't have happened in that year?

Permanent address: Into the West






squire
Half-elven


Apr 2 2014, 8:56pm


Views: 737
The odds were greater than 50% but I don't know how much greater

I'm not sure if I'm doing this correctly, but here goes.

According to this chart from the UK Office of Health Economics, when Tolkien was 65 years old in 1957 his life expectancy was 13 more years. That is, men born in the UK in 1892 would expect to die, on the average, in 1970: half would have died before that date, and half would have yet to die. Obviously as each year passes the odds of dying increase; what I don't know is how that curve goes up, which would indicate the "odds" of Tolkien dying in 1973. It would seem, at the least, that the probability would be significantly above 50%, perhaps as much as 60%?

Anyway, the coincidence between the digits of the inverse number of his death year and the counts of the various Rings of Power is certainly a fun, if meaningless, fact!



squire online:
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Darkstone
Immortal


Apr 2 2014, 8:59pm


Views: 738
Astronomical

As a junior British officer he had already lived through a 50% chance of dying in the trenches.

******************************************
A fox passing through the wood on business of his own stopped several minutes and sniffed. "A chicken crossing the road!" he thought. "Well, what next? I have heard of strange doings in this land, but I have seldom heard of a chicken crossing the road! There's something mighty queer behind this." He was quite right, but he never found out any more because he ate it.


Aunt Dora Baggins
Immortal


Apr 2 2014, 10:02pm


Views: 726
I think the question is ambiguous.

If we started at the time of his birth and asked the question, we'd be factoring in things like WWI. Your chart assumes that he's still alive in 1957, which is going to give a different result. My gut reaction, which I admittedly didn't give much time to, was that if he was going to live into his seventies or eighties, say ages 75-85, then the probability of dying in any one of those ten particular years might be about 1/10.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"For DORA BAGGINS in memory of a LONG correspondence, with love from Bilbo; on a large wastebasket. Dora was Drogo's sister, and the eldest surviving female relative of Bilbo and Frodo; she was ninety-nine, and had written reams of good advice for more than half a century."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"A Chance Meeting at Rivendell" and other stories

leleni at hotmail dot com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



squire
Half-elven


Apr 2 2014, 10:19pm


Views: 726
That seems high

Not that Tolkien didn't risk his life during the war, but I thought I read somewhere that the WW I fatality rate among public school graduates - the elite from which the junior officers were drawn - was somewhat less than 25%. At the height of a battle it was probably higher, of course: during the Somme, when Tolkien served, the attrition rate has been calculated as six weeks until a junior officer became a casualty, but that term includes being wounded as well as being killed. Of course Tolkien was invalided out with trench fever, which was no joke either. As well, two out of the four boys of the TCBS (as Tolkien and his closest chums called themselves) were killed, so Tolkien may well have felt he had lived through a 50% chance!



squire online:
RR Discussions: The Valaquenta, A Shortcut to Mushrooms, and Of Herbs and Stewed Rabbit
Lights! Action! Discuss on the Movie board!: 'A Journey in the Dark'. and 'Designing The Two Towers'.
Footeramas: The 3rd & 4th TORn Reading Room LotR Discussion and NOW the 1st BotR Discussion too! and "Tolkien would have LOVED it!"
squiretalk introduces the J.R.R. Tolkien Encyclopedia: A Reader's Diary


= Forum has no new posts. Forum needs no new posts.


entmaiden
Forum Admin / Moderator


Apr 2 2014, 10:28pm


Views: 150
I think an actuary would be just as close as you

Once you start applying statistical averages to an individual, the chances of being correct go out the window. Actuarial numbers are meant to be applied across a large population of people and they're meaningless at an individual level.


Darkstone
Immortal


Apr 3 2014, 2:18pm


Views: 146
"If you survive your first day, I'll promote you."

The key phrase is "in the trenches".

Yes, I've seen figures for survival rates for "the Eaton Boys" anywhere from 20% to 33%. (As an aside, the film Mary Poppins (1964) always makes me sad as surely young Michael Banks is destined to be an Eton Boy.)

Of course those percentages also include those junior officers who served safely back in headquarters as opposed to being in the trenches.

I've seen estimates of survival rates of junior British officers during various campaigns as low as two weeks. Interesingly, though the image of the trenches as the ultimate abattoir is well deserved, far more dismal was the survival rate of Allied junior officers during the Normandy hedgerow campaign of 1944: one week.

Actually, Tolkien might have had an advantage over his fellow public school officers. Due to superior diet and exercise, most were taller and broader than the lower class enlisted men they commanded, making them prominent and easy targets for the enemy.

However, from Letter #294:

I am not in fact tall, or strongly built. I now measure 5 ft 8 1/2, and am very slightly built, with notably small hands. For most of my life I have been very thin and underweight.

Those characteristics may well have saved Tolkien's life.

******************************************
A fox passing through the wood on business of his own stopped several minutes and sniffed. "A chicken crossing the road!" he thought. "Well, what next? I have heard of strange doings in this land, but I have seldom heard of a chicken crossing the road! There's something mighty queer behind this." He was quite right, but he never found out any more because he ate it.