The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit: I can partly predict some box office results for the next hobbit film

The One Ring Forums: Tolkien Topics: Movie Discussion: The Hobbit:
I can partly predict some box office results for the next hobbit film

Welsh hero
Gondor

May 24 2013, 7:11pm

Views: 1907

I can partly predict some box office results for the next hobbit film

It will not beat Iron Man 3.

Iron man 3 has made $1,105,982,524 allready. Will end up doing much more. I doubt the hobbit will beat it. However it )the hobbit) can hit a billion

-Irfon

Twitter: @IrfonPennant
middle earth timeline FB: https://www.facebook.com/MiddleEarth1

(This post was edited by Welsh hero on May 24 2013, 7:11pm)

Elessar
Valinor

May 24 2013, 7:18pm

Views: 961

I don't know

I expect DoS to hit 1.1-1.2 billion.

Estel78
Tol Eressea

May 24 2013, 7:23pm

Views: 896

Slow day? ;) //

MasterOrc
Rivendell

May 24 2013, 7:26pm

Views: 983

Th sad thing is I saw...

Iron Man 3 and was quite disappointed. But, the theater is packed with kids which obviously fills the void between Hobbit movies and Comic book icons.

The second Star Trek was a very good movie and i can't wait for the next one.

I see Smaug drawing in some more kids to the movie and DOS eclipsing 1.3 billion worldwide. Wink

Welsh hero
Gondor

May 24 2013, 7:49pm

Views: 913

Iron Man 3 does have some time in the cinema to go.....

not sure when it closes in cinema though

-Irfon

Twitter: @IrfonPennant
middle earth timeline FB: https://www.facebook.com/MiddleEarth1

Arannir
Valinor

May 24 2013, 7:57pm

Views: 898

Marvel

Is THE franchise of this generation.

Middle-earth isn't (anymore)... and wasn't even before reviews of AUJ were mixed. The recent superhero movies created much bigger hype and media coverage.

As long as DoS does well (around the same numbers as AUJ +/- 100 Mio), that should be enough... I think who expects the numbers of the topselling Marvel franchises will be in for a dissapointment.

“A dragon is no idle fancy. Whatever may be his origins, in fact or invention, the dragon in legend is a potent creation of men’s imagination, richer in significance than his barrow is in gold.” J.R.R. Tolkien

Words of wisdom that should be remembered - both by critics, purists and anyone in between.

Elessar
Valinor

May 24 2013, 7:58pm

Views: 869

Yeah, it does

I figure its probably got another good 4-5 weeks left.

Welsh hero
Gondor

May 24 2013, 8:07pm

Views: 896

Hobbit may beat thor

Iron man really the big guy (not the hulk) in Marvel.

But Thor has Loki, from what I read, the ladies like Loki

-Irfon

Twitter: @IrfonPennant
middle earth timeline FB: https://www.facebook.com/MiddleEarth1

The Mitch King
Rohan

May 24 2013, 9:27pm

Views: 834

Should get to a billion

I think Desolation of Smaug will be a much superior movie to AUJ. That alone will get more people to come back for a second time, tell there friends about the awesome dragon scene(assuming it is awesome Laugh

) and action, and boost the excitement again for TABA! Optimism at it's finest Smile

Maciliel
Valinor

May 24 2013, 11:31pm

Views: 781

i think d-smaug will do better than auj

many people were put off by the hfr controversy, and some middling reviews (in which reviewers were partially put off by the technology, rather than the content -- though it was certainly fair to criticize some of the script/directing choices).

but it was a hit anyway, and a lot of people were pleasantly surprised. for the second installment, people will be more confident that they'll enjoy it (well, a good portion, anyway).

either way (doing better or worse than auj), i think it will top a billion.

cheers --

.

aka. fili orc-enshield
+++++++++++++++++++
the scene, as i understand it, is exceptionally well-written. fili (in sort of a callback to the scene with the eagles), calls out "thorRIIIIIIN!!!" just as he sees the pale orc veer in for the kill. he picks up the severed arm of an orc which is lying on the ground, swings it up in desperation, effectively blocking the pale orc's blow. and thus, forever after, fili is known as "fili orc-enshield."

this earns him deep respect from his hard-to-please uncle. as well as a hug. kili wipes his boots on the pale orc's glory box. -- maciliel telpemairo

FrogmortonJustice65
Lorien

May 25 2013, 5:25am

Views: 699

who knows

Maybe the hype around Benedict Cumberbatch will attract people to the theaters.

photo cbccab4e-f61e-4be5-aaa1-20e302430c7c.jpg

MouthofSauron
Tol Eressea

May 25 2013, 5:54am

Views: 713

don't be so sure

DOS is going to have a lot going for it...smaug, beorn, mirkwood...I could see DOS doing better than Iron Man 3.

take me down to the woodland realm where the trees are green and the elf women are pretty....Oh will you please take me home!!

Yngwulff
Gondor

May 25 2013, 6:03am

Views: 692

should do better than AUJ at any rate

Take this Brother May it Serve you Well
Vote for Pedro!

Tinkerbell
Lorien

May 25 2013, 6:40am

Views: 683

Possibly.

I think DoS starts to exhibit its own quality. This segment of the journey introduces
Mirkwood, Dale, and Erebor in greater scope. It is relatively unchartered cinematic
landscape. In addition, the characters --Thranduil and Smaug -- introduced in AUJ
prologue reenter the story. At once, this proposition becomes real for Bilbo and the
Dwarves as they arrive at the scenes pertinent to their destination. And we will be treated
to our company's arrival at their destination. Once there, things really get interesting! This
film could have legs.

DanielLB
Immortal

May 25 2013, 6:53am

Views: 691

And based on that ...

I think it will fair better among critics, compared to AUJ - that should pull more viewers in.

Smile

Yngwulff
Gondor

May 25 2013, 7:19am

Views: 675

Critics

Faugh!

If a critic likes movie I generally run from it, most are boobs.

Take this Brother May it Serve you Well
Vote for Pedro!

macfalk
Valinor

May 25 2013, 9:43am

Views: 703

The reason I think that DOS won't top even AUJ's numbers

Is this: as you said, superheroes are what's popular now, and not only in America, over the entire world: like in Asia where they would much rather go see Iron Man 5 or Pirates of the Caribbean 8 than anything Tolkien, regardless of quality. Superhero movies don't have to rely on reviews or critical reception, you watch superhero movies because you want to be entertained.

The greatest adventure is what lies ahead.

Arannir
Valinor

May 25 2013, 10:05am

Views: 621

I hope so...

... but if they keep pouring hate over 48fps and ESPECIALLY the three movie split than this might not be the case... DoS will have the big question how it ends... either way (Smauf dead or not dead) it will be easy to criticize it (either "the dragon is dead... why should we come back next year?" or "Already 5 hours of story-telling and we have gotten nowhere - padding, money crap.").

Also, as much as I love AUJ - the editing was an issue with it, movie-wise. I hope PJ makes some harder decisions here on what to cut out until the EE.

Estel78
Tol Eressea

May 25 2013, 10:19am

Views: 646

I'm waiting for the marketing to begin...

... before saying anything more than "slightly more or less than AUJ". If the trailers and posters elicit a "meh" like the majority of the ones for AUJ i could see a decrease.

glor
Rohan

May 25 2013, 3:43pm

Views: 577

I think it will too, plus..

Like the LOTR films, it will build an audience via DVD viewings. I work with young adults and have two of my own and an awful lot of them did not see AUJ in the cinema but have expressed a strong desire to see DOS in the cinema. They watched AUJ on DVD and thoroughly enjoyed it, they didn't bother going to theatres to see it because they were either put of by reviews, weren't overly fond of the LOTR films or hadn't even seen them.

Just like FOTR, people are watching AUJ on dvd and surprised by their enjoyment of it, that is building an audience for DOS and TABA, an audience that will (hopefully) increase box office.

This is why Hollywood is so keen on franchises and trilogies, home viewings of films via DVD, and streaming services are not just revenue sources but massive marketing tools intended to build audiences for the next or final part of the franchise/trilogy. it is no coincidence that it is the sequels and/or subsequent films in a franchise that break the box office takings of their predecessors. Ironically, this modern model for making money from movies probably started with the LOTR Trilogy.

willowing
Lorien

May 26 2013, 1:02am

Views: 529

The Hobbit

I think The Lord Of The Rings and The Hobbit is far superior to the super hero movies that are 'in' at the moment.

The world has problems, and people are looking for an escape from the daily grind, so what way better to feed the imagine than having super heroes flying through the air brandishing their accesssories, tossing the enemy/objects away like golf balls.

I have seen a few of these movies and they were good and found myself thinking 'if only'.

Situations and problems cannot be solved in this manner which is why the Lord Of The Rings/The Hobbit is better reading and viewing than the super hero. No jumping into an iron suit or grabbing a hammer as an energiser.

It's about human endurance and endeavour with the aid of a few friends along the way that makes middle earth what it is.

The Desolution of Smaug will definitely be an eye opener and a box office hit.

cats16
Half-elven

May 26 2013, 1:09am

Views: 492

Well said, willowing. //

demnation
Rohan

May 26 2013, 4:26am

Views: 468

Don't know

Him being in Star Trek didn't really do that movie any favors.

My Sam Gamgee is indeed a reflexion of the English soldier, of the privates and batmen I knew in the 1914 war, and recognized as so far superior to myself- J.R.R. Tolkien

Semper Fi
Rohan

May 26 2013, 11:33am

Views: 449

Movies are made and will be released regadless of the boxoffice

They cannot be unprofitable because following is big enough to assure revenue and they cannot be cancelled either for they are already made. So fans win even if another movie wins the boxoffice "battle".

Does it really matter what movie makes more and what movie makes less? Boxoffice doesn`t reflect on quality (Twilight, anyone?) and in The Hobbit case it won`t prevent movies from being made.

Semper Fi
Rohan

May 26 2013, 11:40am

Views: 447

Marvel does what LOTR did only on much bigger scale

Both came up with an inovative release idea. Filming and releasing LOTR back to back was unprecended at the time but Marvel took it to the next level with "Phases" - individual movies loosely tied-in culminating in a multiple superhero movie that brings them together. And then over again. The hype is on its side but how they`ll age is another matter.

Welsh hero
Gondor

May 26 2013, 4:12pm

Views: 254

Iron man 3 just beat Return of the king........

Now at $1,142,306,000

-Irfon

Twitter: @IrfonPennant
middle earth timeline FB: https://www.facebook.com/MiddleEarth1

Semper Fi
Rohan

May 26 2013, 6:01pm

Views: 239

Wow, that number is clearly adjusted to 2003 prices of admission...

...not.

No offense fans but that movie was horrible. I enjoyed the first Iron Man but the second and third were really bad. I watched the third yesterday thanks to good reviews and recommendations and I want my money and time back.

(This post was edited by Semper Fi on May 26 2013, 6:05pm)

Welsh hero
Gondor

May 26 2013, 6:29pm

Views: 210

Well it's hard to adjust world wide ticket prices for inflation

Easy to do domestic, but not world wide

-Irfon

Twitter: @IrfonPennant
middle earth timeline FB: https://www.facebook.com/MiddleEarth1

Semper Fi
Rohan

May 26 2013, 6:32pm

Views: 209

Correct me if I`m wrong

But were markets such as China big 10 years ago or not? It kinds doesn`t make sense that China was a big money maker a decade ago since they opened their market in recent years. Same goes for former Eastern Block such as Russia.

AinurOlorin
Half-elven

May 26 2013, 6:41pm

Views: 198

Thor will probably see a 100 million dollar increase due to Avenger reflection, but still not cross the 300 million dollar threshold.

I think Desolation will beat it, by virtue of doing as well as or slightly better than An Unexpected. Of course, the Dragon REALLY being in the film could raise that significantly, especially if he is flawlessly done and generates alot of extrafan social hype.

In Reply To

"Hear me, hounds of Sauron, Gandalf is here! Fly if you value your foul skins, I will shrivel you from tail to snout if you step within this circle!"

"Do not be to eager to deal out death in judgement. Even the very wise cannot see all ends."

Welsh hero
Gondor

May 26 2013, 6:51pm

Views: 201

Usually it's chineese films that did well in China, true

Not many Forgein films go big in China even today. Some films are not even released in China

-Irfon

Twitter: @IrfonPennant
middle earth timeline FB: https://www.facebook.com/MiddleEarth1

Kimtc
Rohan

May 26 2013, 6:56pm

Views: 196

Loki has excellent hair in Thor 2

That would be enough to attract the crowd here (see: threads dedicated to Thorin's hair).

LordotRings93
Rohan

May 26 2013, 7:42pm

Views: 206

It'll make a billion no doubt

If AUJ, with it's mixed reaction from critics, can make it to 1 billion, then DoS will DEFINITELY reach that in a shorter span. Granted, not as fast as Iron Man, but still make more by the end of its run. With AUJ's cliffhanger, people want to see Smaug, and if the advertising campaign is amazing, then no doubt it'll make big money. This is why I hope we get something at Comic-Con in July. It's good publicity and a chance to show new stuff. But seeing as how pickups are going on, PJ and co. probably won't make it. But ya never know, right?

Lover of Medieval Fantasy
"I know what I must do. It's just... I'm afraid to do it."

Arannir
Valinor

May 26 2013, 8:31pm

Views: 187

Yes...

... I also did not mean that every Marvel movie will make it. But in genera the buzz those movies and franchise creates at the moment is much much higher compared to what the Hobbit created, even before AUJ reviews were mixed.

Elessar
Valinor

May 26 2013, 11:35pm

Views: 175

Not surprising

Marvel is hot and I think things will continue for them for a while. I expect Thor 2 to also crack 1 Billion. Now, I enjoyed Iron Man 3 quite a bit but this is a case where they money doesn't work out to which movie is better. Iron Man 3 could only hope to be as good as Return of the King.

Bombadil
Half-elven

May 27 2013, 2:41pm

Views: 146

Remember, the Chinese LOVE Dragons!///

Elessar
Valinor

May 27 2013, 2:57pm

Views: 148

I expect we will

All love dragons by the end of part 2.

Elenorflower
Gondor

May 28 2013, 1:47pm

Views: 117

good point

I do hope they show us Dale, Erebor and eventually Laketown so we can get a sense of the landscape and the towns, and the cultures. Thats what I loved about LOTR the way they set up the differing realms so well. the details of Rohhirim decoration and the architecture of Minas Tirith, its all good stuff.

(This post was edited by Elenorflower on May 28 2013, 1:49pm)

Otaku-sempai
Immortal

May 28 2013, 7:00pm

Views: 101

Lake-town

In Reply To

The company spends a good deal of time in Esgaroth (at least two weeks, in the book) so we should get a pretty good feel for Lake-town by the time that they head up-river to the Lonely Mountain. I doubt that we'll see much of Dale except in flashback. The city is in ruins when Bilbo and the Dwarves pass through and it won't be restored until well after Bilbo returns home. There just isn't much reason to linger there.

I don't think that we will see much of the interior of Erebor (other than Smaug's treasure chamber) until There and Back Again. The same goes for the guardhouse at Ravenhill.

'There are older and fouler things than Orcs in the deep places of the world.' - Gandalf the Grey, The Fellowship of the Ring

Elenorflower
Gondor

May 28 2013, 8:18pm

Views: 102

I heard somewhere

cant remember exactly where,that they were using the Dale set a lot, or were getting their moneys worth out of it. I presumed they meant that a good section was being filmed in Dale, maybe I am mistaken though, it was ages ago I read this. ((or maybe I just imagined it, it wouldnt be the first time Crazy

))

Otaku-sempai
Immortal

May 28 2013, 9:47pm

Views: 86

Okay, but ruined Dale, or pre-attack Dale?

I think that part of the encampment of Men and Elves is in ruins of Dale. That may be where (SPOILER WARNING) Bilbo brings the [redacted] to Bard and the Elvenking {SPOILER ENDS). That might account for what you remember.

'There are older and fouler things than Orcs in the deep places of the world.' - Gandalf the Grey, The Fellowship of the Ring

Elenorflower
Gondor

May 29 2013, 12:55am

Views: 85

what accounts for what I remember

largely depends on how much chocolate I consumed on the day in question. I could have had a chokky induced dream of Dale for all I know. But I seem to remember it was pre-attack Dale. Crazy