Oct 19 2021, 10:04pm
NOTE / ADDENDUM:
October 19, 2941 (S.R. 1341)
Supplemental: J.R.R. Tolkien's estimated date for Durin's Day
(from John D. Rateliff, The History of The Hobbit)
Tolkien made the calculation that October 19 was the date of Durin's Day in the year T.A. 2941, although it's not known if this estimate was made before his construction of the Shire Reckoning calendar. So we will continue to use our "determined from text" date of October 22.
I know this has come up before, but I do wonder if Thorin and Balin could have been referencing the Calendar of the Longbeards and not the Shire Reckoning when they were discussing the first day of the last week of autumn. October 19 could work as Durin's Day in the Reckoning of Durin's Folk (as opposed to October 22 in the context of the Shire Calendar). It's an easy workaround for what is otherwise a bit of a problem.
Also, I'm certain that Tolkien was not using the Shire Reckoning (as it hadn't been invented yet) when he was calculating the date of the last new moon of autumn, or for the date of Midyear's day for that matter. It seems as though, in The Hobbit Midyear's Day fell on either June 23 or June 24, not within the Lithedays between 1 Lithe and 2 Lithe.
(This post was edited by Otaku-sempai on Oct 19 2021, 10:06pm)